Golden State Warriors Aren’t Just Playing The Minnesota Timberwolves’ Draft Lottery Odds

“We’re a mediocre team, with the potential to be a good team”. So said Golden State Warriors Head Coach Steve Kerr earlier this week. It was a blunt assessment of an inconsistent Golden State team who can on the one hand beat both the top teams in the Western Conference in the Lakers and Clippers, but on the other get rolled by the New York Knicks and blown out by the Utah Jazz. In truth their 8-8 record is a little misleading, bolstered as it is a couple of one-point victories over the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors.

There is a fairly easy fix for the Warriors starting lineup woes in shifting Damion Lee in and Kelly Oubre out, as detailed a couple of weeks ago. But help is also about to arrive in not one, but two, matchups against a genuinely bad team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Warriors then get to wrap up next week with a visit from the Detroit Pistons, who deservedly hold the league’s worst record to date. Win all three of those early season gimme games, and that should provide an immediate tonic.

The Warriors future is inextricably linked to the Timberwolves’ present

It’s not just the schedule-related relief on the cards that’s at stake though. What makes these matchups a little spicier is the bounty the Warriors extracted from the Timberwolves in the Andrew Wiggins-D’Angelo Russell swap, namely their top-three protected draft pick in this year’s draft. 

Currently Minnesota holds the second worst record in the league, behind the Pistons. The Warriors have certainly had some luck when it comes to the Timberwolves and the draft in the past, thanks to their inexplicable decision to pass on Stephen Curry not once, but twice, in the 2009 draft.

If the Timberwolves carry on their current path, the Warriors might need some luck again. Thanks to the flattened lottery odds if Minnesota end up in the bottom three, the Warriors still have a 60% chance of getting their pick. Those odds bump up a little to 63.4% if the Timberwolves finish fourth or 68.5% if they finish with the fifth-worst record.

All that’s to say, if the Wolves keep their current path, the Warriors have a pretty decent shot at a pick somewhere between 4-8. And, as has been widely trailed, with this draft class containing a host of top-end talent, that holds the key to their future. 

The Warriors aren’t just playing the Timberwolves’ odds

Of course, there’s no guarantee the Warriors win both of these matchups with the inconsistent way they’re playing. And that’s where things could get really interesting. The early standings in the West are pretty bunched up at the bottom. There’s no sign that will change either. The race for the last few playoff spots will be competitive this year. 

The Warriors absolutely have the talent to snag a playoff spot, and should improve as the season goes on and their familiarity with each other grows. But the difference between finishing in the seventh spot, or the tenth spot will probably only be a few games. Both places will land a team in the new play-in tournament, with the difference being the winner of the 7 vs 8 matchup only has to play once, whereas in the 9th and 10th spots you have win both play-in games to make it.

The other difference? As it stands nothing has changed about the lottery odds. Finish 8th and you’re out of the lottery. Finish 9th, where the Warriors are right now, or 10th, and depending on the standings in the other conference, a team could end up with as much as an 8% chance of a top-three pick. Those are not odds you would want to place a big bet on, but since the lottery odds were flattened, the Lakers went from 11th to 4th in 2019, and the Hornets went from 8th to 3rd in 2020, which they had a 7.5% chance of.

This early on in the season, with the chances of a very good Minnesota pick in hand, there’s no incentive to think about playing the lottery odds. The Warriors’ mission remains to just try to win the games in front of them, and develop James Wiseman’s undoubted talents.

But if the Warriors’ inconsistency dogs them throughout the year, the balance of having to win an extra game to get into the playoffs vs having another shot at a lottery pick, albeit very slim, in a deep draft is something to keep in the back of the mind.