Green Bay Packers Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Who Has The Edge?

Since 1995, there have been just 13 times where an NFL team lost when they were favored by at least 14 points.

The last time it happened was in 2018, when Buffalo was a 16.5-point underdog, but went to Minnesota and whipped the Vikings, 27-6.

The largest underdog in the last quarter century to win outright came in 1995, when Washington (+17.5) defeated heavily-favored Dallas, 24-17.

Green Bay (6-2) hosts Jacksonville (1-7) Sunday at noon, and the Packers have bounced between a 13- and 14-point favorite all week. The forecast calls for rain, snow, heavy winds and a high temperature of just 40 degrees — conditions that figure to work against the warm weather Jaguars.

If the Packers go off as 14-point favorites, or more, they’ll try to avoid becoming the 14^th team to stumble as a two-touchdown favorite.

“Here, we never take any opponent for granted,” Packers running back Aaron Jones said. “Zero wins, one win, two wins, three wins, no matter how many wins you have, you’ve got to respect everyone in this league. They’re going to come ready to play.

“They’re grown men. They love to compete and nobody likes to lose, so we put that aside — playoff team, no playoff team — we feel like every team that comes in here is a good team and has players that are very capable. So we kind of throw that out of the window.

Here’s a look at each positional group and which team has the edge.

QUARTERBACKS

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has returned to his MVP form of 2011 and 2014.

Rodgers has 24 touchdown passes at the midway point, which nearly matches his total from a year ago (26) and has him on pace to topple his career-high of 45 set in 2011. Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 117.5, which would be the second-best figure of his career and is more than 14 points higher than his career average.

Rodgers is on pace to throw for 4,506 yards, which would be the second-most in his career. And he’s averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which is his highest mark since 2014.

“I mean he’s been awesome. He really has,” Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said of Rodgers. “When the quarterback’s in a good spot, in a good mental mind frame, you’ve got a chance to be successful. I think it’s one of those things, it’s always trying to create that environment.

“This is a fun game and there’s so much pressure, especially on a guy like Aaron. There’s so much pressure on him to perform at this unbelievably high level at every second. And I mean, really, in the end, you don’t want that pressure on him. You want him to go out there and play ball with his boys out on the field. That’s what it comes down to. When you can create that, make everybody feel that way, that’s usually when you’ve got a chance to have some success.”

Jacksonville’s preferred starter Gardner Minshew is out with a thumb injury. Jake Luton, a rookie sixth-round draft choice, will make his second career start.

Luton is 6-foot-7, 230 pounds and moves OK for a man his size. His arm strength is average at best, though, and his lower body mechanics must be overhauled. He’s traditionally worked just half the field too, instead of progressing through all of his reads.

In Luton’s first start, he was serviceable completing 26-of-38 passes for 304 yards with one touchdown and one interception against lowly Houston.

“I think you need to do some things that will confuse a young guy like you said, that maybe you wouldn’t get away with with a veteran,” Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said of Luton. “But you don’t want to overdo that and you don’t want that to be the basis of your plan. I think this kid’s an NFL quarterback and he showed that last week, that he can make a lot of the throws.

“We’re not just chalking it up as, hey, rookie quarterback and we just have to get inside of his head. It’s to the point now, too, where obviously it is important what they’re doing and what he’s doing, but you also want to make sure you’re falling back on who we are.”

ADVANTAGE: Packers

RUNNING BACKS

Green Bay ranks 10^th in the league in rushing offense (126.6) and ninth in yards per carry (4.6).

Aaron Jones returned from a two-week absence (calf) last week and gave the running game some much needed juice.

“I think you saw from the first possession last week that Jonesy is such a different type of back,” Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said of Jones. “His slashing style, he just doesn’t take a lot of squared up shots. He does a nice job with bouncing off things. He’s just very elusive with the ball in his hands.”

Jamaal Williams and rookie A.J. Dillon have also been activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Jacksonville ranks 27^th in rushing yards per game (98.9), but 11^th in yards per carry (4.5).

Rookie James Robinson, who went undrafted back in April, is sixth in the NFL with 580 rushing yards. Robinson stands just 5-foot-9, but is a powerful 219 pounds. Robinson’s 40-yard dash time (4.64) was one reason he wasn’t drafted, but he’s averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per carry.

“Good back,” Packers safety Adrian Amos said of Robinson. “Good downhill, makes good cuts, and he’s been playing well early. He’s somebody we have to wrap up and tackle.”

Chris Thompson, who spent seven years in Washington, is No. 2. Dare Ogunbowale, who played at Milwaukee Marquette High School and the University of Wisconsin, is No. 3.

ADVANTAGE: Packers

RECEIVERS

Green Bay’s Davante Adams is averaging an NFL-best 112.5 receiving yards per game, well ahead of No. 2 DK Metcalf of Seattle (98.5). If Adams maintains that pace, he’ll break the franchise record set by Don Hutson in 1942 (110.1).

“Everyone knows he’s going to get the ball,” Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone said of Adams. “You’ve just got to try to contest throws and try to make sure the run after catch is controlled. He’s having an outstanding year. He’s probably a guy you would think would get a whole lot more, I don’t want to say, I guess you’d say publicity. You watch him on film, I think it’s very difficult to say who’s playing better than he is right now.”

Allen Lazard, Green Bay’s preferred No. 2, was not activated from the reserve/injured list, meaning he’ll miss at least one more week. Lazard has been on the injured reserve list since Oct. 3 with a core muscle injury.

Jacksonville’s top target is third-year man D.J. Chark, who had a 1,000-yard season last year and is on pace for 999 receiving yards in 2020. Chark has ideal size (6-4, 198) and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.34 seconds coming out of LSU in 2018.

Promising rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. is out with a hamstring injury. That means rookie fifth round draft pick Collin Johnson, who has just seven catches, likely jumps up to No. 2.

Veteran tight ends Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy have been serviceable.

ADVANTAGE: Packers

OFFENSIVE LINE

The Packers should get a boost with the return of left tackle David Bakhtiari, who was a full participant at practice all week. Bakhtiari missed the past three games with a chest injury he sustained in Tampa Bay last month.

With Bakhtiari out, the Packers learned they have viable left tackle options with both right tackle Billy Turner and left guard Elgton Jenkins.

“Throughout training camp, you’re not ever just playing one position,” Turner said this week. “People get banged up, and injuries occur all the time in football, whether it’s in games, in practice, etc.

“So just having that mentality to go in there and play multiple positions, and I think we’ve got the right dudes on this offensive line, not to mention both of those coaches played multiple positions in the NFL and college also. So they have that mentality to be able to coach all positions, but also to mentally prepare us for that to happen at any given time.”

The Jaguars brought back their same starting offensive line from 2019 and hoped continuity would lead to success. So far, that hasn’t been the case as the Jaguars rank 26^th in sacks allowed (25) and 21^st in total yards per game (350.5).

Jacksonville’s best player up front is center Brandon Linder, but he didn’t practice all week and is questionable with a back injury. Left guard Andrew Norwell (6-6, 325) and right guard A.J. Cann (6-3, 315) are steady veterans playing at a high level.

Left tackle Cam Robinson is rounding back into form after suffering a torn ACL in 2018. Jawaan Taylor has the potential to become a fixture at right tackle, but has allowed five sacks this season.

ADVANTAGE: Packers                                                                                                                                            

DEFENSIVE LINE

Green Bay nose tackle Kenny Clark has been frustrated with the high number of double teams he’s faced since returning from a groin injury in Week 6.

“I told him, listen … you’re a victim of your own success at times that you’re not sneaking up on anybody anymore after you get a new contract and the playoff run we made last year,” Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said of Clark. “You weren’t a well-kept secret anymore, that this was a guy that teams knew, when they watched the film, they understand like, ‘Hey listen. Especially in the run game, we got to get two hats on him or he’s going to create some issues.’

“So, no, he’s just got to keep, it’s tough, he’s just got to keep doing his job and just understand that offenses are smart and they’re going to try to take away what we do best and negate our best player and he’s one of them.”

Jacksonville plays a 4-3 base, but doesn’t have close to the talent it did in 2019 when Calais Campbell, Marcell Darius and Yannick Ngakoue anchored the unit. The Jaguars currently rank 27^th in rushing yards allowed per game (138.1) and 17^th in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.5).

Left defensive end Josh Allen, a first-round draft pick in 2019, had 10.5 sacks as a rookie. Teams have paid closer attention to Allen this year, though, and he’s managed just 2.5 sacks to date.

Right end Adam Gotsis, who spent his first four years in Denver, wasn’t signed until early August. Gotsis, who suffered a knee injury late in the 2019 campaign, has been so-so, at best.

Rookie tackle Davon Hamilton was drafted to beef up the run defense, but he’s been displaced too easily at times. Doug Costin, who typically starts inside next to Hamilton, is out with a concussion. So Taven Bryan, a first-round pick in 2018 with just 3.5 career sacks, will likely start.

ADVANTAGE: Even

LINEBACKERS

The Packers activated veteran inside linebacker Christian Kirksey from the reserve/injured list on Saturday. Kirksey had been on the injured reserve list since Oct. 3 with a pectoral muscle injury.

“He just adds another experienced guy out there on the field, so it’s easy to communicate,” Packers linebacker Preston Smith said of Kirksey. “Just his experience out there on the field, the communication and seeing things happens a lot of faster because he’s seen it over his time being in the league and with the guys out there that’s been in the league for a long period of time also, we can easily communicate on things we see.

“If there’s similar things that he’s seen before, he might have an idea on how we can play it to be more effective. That experience gap between him and the younger guys, that’s what brings an asset to this team.”

Joe Schobert, who played his high school football at Waukesha West and became a standout at the University of Wisconsin, is an anchor in the middle. Schobert signed a five-year, $53.75 million contract with the Jaguars in April and leads the team in tackles (62).

The Jaguars’ headliner is weakside ‘backer Myles Jack, who’s one of the most explosive athletes at his position in football. Jack was a projected top-10 pick in the 2016 draft, but suffered a torn meniscus during his final year at UCLA and slipped into the second round.

“He’s the best athlete I done ever seen,” Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark said of Jack, who was his college teammate at UCLA. “In college, he played running back, linebacker, and he can cover anybody. I’ve done seen him, in college we had him line up against who was it, (USC wide receiver) Marquise Lee? He lined up against Marquise Lee in the slot and covered him wherever he went. We did everything with Myles. So I’m not surprised by any of the success or anything that he has going on.

“The guy plays the run good and he can run with the best of ‘em. And a thing we all live by since college is ‘run and hit,’ and those are two things that Myles does well. Those are his trademarks, is being able to run fast and get to the ball and be able to knock guys down. he’s a great player and I know he does a great job for the Jaguars.”

Strongside ‘backer Quincy Williams had a rough rookie season in 2019 and has played in just four games this year due to a core muscle injury. Williams, who played at tiny Murray State and wasn’t invited to the NFL Combine, was considered a reach when the Jaguars took him in the third round. So far, Williams hasn’t changed anyone’s mind.

ADVANTAGE: Even

SECONDARY

Green Bay could be without starting corners Jaire Alexander (concussion) and Kevin King (quadriceps). Alexander is listed as doubtful, while King is questionable.

If neither can go, the Packers would likely play Chandon Sullivan and Josh Jackson outside in their base defense. When the Packers go to nickel, Sullivan would probably move inside with Ka’dar Hollman playing outside.

“When you bring younger guys in or you lose one of your starters, you’re going to be a little bit different, but the other guys have to step up,” Packers defensive backs coach Jerry Gray said. “We try to tell those guys, you’re always one play away from being a starter and a lot of times, guys listen to you and (say) ‘Yeah, coach, right.’

“All of a sudden that one play happens and then those guys have to start. That’s the hardest part for a coach but it also gives you a chance to see if a player’s responding to what he should be doing because you are the next guy up.”

Jacksonville ranks 28^th in passing yards allowed per game (280.0) and 31^st in opponent quarterback rating (107.7).

Rookie C.J. Henderson, the ninth pick in the 2020 draft, has elite man coverage skills. Henderson has a lot to learn, though, and has been picked on throughout his rookie season.

Sidney Jones has been much more reliable on the other side. Jones was released by Philadelphia in September, signed to the Jaguars’ practice squad, and has performed admirably since entering the lineup in Week 5.

Strong safety Josh Jones, a second-round draft pick of Green Bay in 2017, is second on the Jaguars in tackles (61). Jones doesn’t have a sack, though, hasn’t been part of a turnover play and is questionable with a chest injury.

“He’s another guy who came in, he kind of bounced around the league for a while, bounced from team to team and really was kind of bouncing around here, and he came back with a whole different mindset of preparation and getting ready and really did a lot of work, you saw it right after the season was over,” Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said of Jones. “I can’t speak for him, whether it was like hey listen I’m going to put everything in and see what happens or anything like that, but he had a really good camp and really played well. He’s made a lot of plays for us this year and I think he’s done a nice job.”

Free safety Jarrod Wilson doesn’t get much publicity, but is one of the better players in the game at his position.

ADVANTAGE: Even

SPECIAL TEAMS

Green Bay’s special teams took a hit when John Lovett suffered a torn ACL in practice Thursday. Lovett had played 112 special teams snaps and was a core member of all four units.

“It’s really unfortunate because you talk about a guy that will do anything for the football team,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of Lovett. “The intensity that he brings, the effort, the energy, he is all about the team. I feel just sick about it.

“I don’t think it’s anybody’s fault. It’s just really unfortunate because his impact was really coming along I think in both phases, on special teams and on offense. I know we didn’t use him as much on the offensive side of the ball but you’re talking about a four-core starter on special teams. And those types of players are really tough to replace.”

The Jaguars have had a merry-go-round at kicker this season due to both injury and ineffectiveness. This week, Jacksonville signed Chase McLaughlin off Minnesota’s practice squad and he’ll be the Jaguars’ sixth kicker in nine games.

McLaughlin kicked in 11 games last season for three different teams last year and made 18-of-23 field goals. He was also a perfect 26-of-26 on extra points.

Punter Logan Cooke finished first in the NFL in net average last year (44.5). This year, he ranks sixth at 43.1.

Keelan Cole (26.7) and Chris Claybrooks (20.0) have been solid returning kicks. Dede Westbrook (11.0) has been the Jaguars’ top punt returner.

ADVANTAGE: Even

COACHING

Since Matt LaFleur became Green Bay’s head coach in 2019, the Packers have the NFL’s third-best record at 19-5. LaFleur even beat San Francisco and old pal Kyle Shanahan last week after the 49ers trounced Green Bay twice a year ago.

Jacksonville’s Doug Marrone could be down to his final eight games with the Jaguars.

After Jacksonville went 6-10 last year, owner Shad Khan called it “unacceptable.” Right now, it might take a minor miracle for the Jaguars to reach six wins again.

Marrone was certainly dealt a lousy hand in 2020 when ownership elected to rebuild and traded or released several key veterans. The head coach typically pays the price, though, meaning Marrone will probably be looking for work in 2021. 

ADVANTAGE: Packers

Reischel’s Prediction: Packers 37, Jaguars 14

Season record: 7-1