Here’s How The Bears Should Do, From Week 1 Win To A Week 17 Loss

Who thought overconfidence could be a problem for the Bears?

That could be the case looking at the schedule they were dealt on Thursday night — one in which they won’t play a team coming off a winning season until the week of Halloween. Of course, to get off to a 6-0 start they’d have to beat teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady (Tampa Bay), Philip Rivers (Indianapolis) and Teddy Bridgewater (Carolina).

The Bears, like those three teams, are looking to ride a quarterback change to the playoff spot they missed a year ago — at least that’s what it looks like the Bears are trying to do. They are saying publicly that it’s a competition, with Mitchell Trubisky starting off ahead of Nick Foles, but the relative stability of the troubled offense suggests that GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy believe Foles can be a difference maker. 

We’ll see. I’ve got the Bears down for a 9-7 year, which puts them on the playoff bubble. I don’t think I’m underestimating them but they’ll get a chance to prove that I am in the two games against the Packers and Vikings, all of which I have down as losses. Here’s how I see it:

Week 1, at Lions, WIN (1-0) — With first-round draft pick Jeff Okudah replacing Bobby Slay in the Detroit secondary, this is a chance to Foles to start his Chicago career with 300-plus passing yards, including a strong debut by tight end Cole Kmet.

Week 2, Giants, WIN (2-0) — The resurgence of Saquon Barkley running behind first-round tackle Andrew Thomas could make this a tougher game to win than you’d think. Daniel Jones should be much improved in his second season.

Week 3, at Falcons, LOSS (2-1) — This should be an easy victory for the Bears, especially if the NFL limits fans as a result of the pandemic, but the second road game is as good of a time as any for a team to make too many sloppy mistakes. Don’t be surprised if Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and newcomer Todd Gurley II go to town against Khalil Mack’s defense.

Week 4, Colts, WIN (3-1) — Rivers, a show pony, is due to pay for the Falcons’ success. Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor will be looking for a big game at Soldier Field but it’s not happening. Foles has settled in by now, and hangs 30-plus on Indianapolis.

Week 5, Bucs, WIN (4-1) — This will be a great Thursday night game, with a 34-31 score that really could go either way. The victory marks the first ever for the Bears over a Tom Brady team. Tampa Bay was wise to trade up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, who will work to neutralize Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman. Nagy builds a couple of trick plays into his plans and they pay off, especially a “Philly Special’’ type pass from Kmet to Foles for a score.

Week 6, at Panthers, WIN (5-1) — There was a reason that Carolina took only defensive players in the draft. While Bridgewater knows how to attack the Bears, he can’t do enough damage to offset strong day from David Montgomery, Allen Robinson and rookie speedster Darnell Mooney.

Week 7, Rams, WIN (6-1) — With Monday Night Football on the scene, it’s a party at Soldier Field. Well, at least as much of a party as is allowed. Jayson Jackson and Tashaun Gibson both return Jared Goff interceptions for scores in a one-sided victory.

Week 8, Saints, LOSS (6-2) — It’s time for the meat of the schedule, with little let up the rest of the way. Drew Brees does what Drew Brees does. In a battle of rookie tight ends, Dayton’s Adam Trautman does a better impersonation of Travis Kelce than Kmet. 

Week 9, at Tennessee, LOSS (6-3) — Ryan Tannehill outplays Foles while Derrick Henry plays keep-away from the Bears. 

Week 10, Vikings, LOSS (6-4) — It’s a winnable game on a Monday night but Minnesota’s balanced attack wears down the Bears’ defense. Justin Jefferson catches a couple of TD passes from Kirk Cousins, and Dalvin Cook breaks loose for a late touchdown that is the difference.

Week, 11, BYE — After three straight losses, it’s time to regroup before the games against NFC North opponent that will determine if the Bears are remembered more for their start or their finish.

Week 12, at Green Bay, LOSS (6-5) — This is not the same Packers team that went 13-3 a year ago. It’s a winnable game for the Bears on Sunday Night Football but they can’t stop finding new ways to lose to the rival that has their number.

Week 13, Lions, WIN (7-5) — The chance to face Detroit again is worth the wait. The Bears stuff D’Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson for a second time, snapping a four-game losing streak.

Week 14, Texans, WIN (8-5) — Unlike Patrick Mahomes at Soldier Field in 2019, DeShaun Watson does not make the Bears regret bypassing him in the draft. But television cameras make that point anyway, focusing on Trubisky on the sideline almost as much as Foles on the field.

Week 15, at Vikings, LOSS (8-6) — Minnesota is in position to win the North and possibly gain one of the NFC’s two first-round byes in the new postseason format. The Vikings aren’t going to screw that up with a home loss to the Bears.

Week 16, at Jaguars, WIN (9-6) — Foles sticks it to Jacksonville’s management for falling in love with Gardner Minshew so quickly last season. This rout is played before a small crowd even if full stadiums are being allowed.

Week 17, Packers, LOSS (9-7) — Talk about a dramatic finish. The Bears have a chance to not only clinch their spot but eliminate the Packers. Yet like Sisyphus, the Bears can’t get their boulder all the way to the top. The one caveat here is whether Green Bay has laid a season-long egg with Jordan Love looking over Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder. If the Packers have already been eliminated from the playoffs, which is possible, the Bears will win the season finale, finish 10-6 and get back to the postseason. Otherwise this will likely be Trubisky’s final game in Chicago.