Here’s How Trump Handed Biden A Critical Advantage In The Debates

Topline

President Trump on Sunday repeated his call for drug testing before the first presidential debate on Tuesday as part of a broader pattern of him lowering expectations for Biden, which could ultimately prove detrimental to Trump.

Key Facts

Trump tweeted that he would be “strongly demanding” a drug test for both candidates ahead of the debate, calling Biden’s past performances “uneven, to put it mildly” and baselessly claiming, “Only drugs could have caused this discrepancy.”

As with many long-cherished norms and traditions, Trump has upended the practice of raising debate expectations for an opponent, frequently and savagely disparaging Biden’s mental fitness and rhetorical abilities, with Republicans often accusing Biden of angling to skip the debates despite his firm commitment to doing them.

As recently as Sept. 12, Trump called Biden’s Democratic primary debate showings “the worst debate performances I’ve ever seen,” falsely claiming he was “unable to answer anything” and that the moderators asked, “Are you awake, sir? Sir, please wake up.”

The attacks have had an unsurprising effect; 39% of Americans predict Trump will win the debates while 34% predict Biden will win in an Economist/YouGov poll, and 51% of voters in a Redfield & Wilton poll predict Trump will have a “10 out of 10” performance, compared to 35% who say the same of Biden.

Trump appeared to have noticed the impacts of his unorthodox tack in recent weeks as he has begun casting Biden as an experienced debater and even predicted last week that he would win because “he’s been doing it for 47 years I’ve been doing it for 3 and a half.”

But Trump’s latest comments on drug tests contradict that strategy, even though the Commission on Presidential Debates is highly unlikely to adopt such a measure; Trump called for drug testing in 2016 as well, which did not end up happening.

Forbes has reached out to the Commission on Presidential Debates, while the Biden campaign declined to comment.

Key Background

Presidential campaigns have long had a practice of raising debate expectations for their opponents. Ahead of the 2012 vice presidential debate between the then-70 year old Biden and 42 year old Paul Ryan, for example, a Romney campaign aide pitched Biden’s reputation for gaffes as a potential strength, telling Real Clear Politics, “[Biden] is a very charming man, and you always have to kind of think about that charm and the potential for an ‘Irish uncle’ moment.” However, the impact of debates on polling has diminished in recent cycles.

Crucial Quote

“In trying to message that Biden may be unfit for office, the campaign also may have lowered expectations on his debate performance,” Republican strategist and candidate debate coach Brett O’Donnell told the New York Times. Karl Rove, former President George W. Bush’s chief strategist, told the Times that it would “maybe” benefit Biden.

Big Number

71%. That’s the share of Americans who said in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll the debates will not matter much to their vote in November, with 44% saying it will not matter at all, a record high since 2000. Still, that leaves 29% who say the debates are quite or extremely important to their votes in a race that will likely be decided by a considerably smaller margin.

What To Watch For

Fox News Host Chris Wallace will moderate the first debate on Sept. 29 in Cleveland, Ohio, C-SPAN political editor Steve Scully will moderate the second on Oct. 15 in Miami, Florida, and NBC News White House correspondent Kristen Welker will moderate the third on Oct. 22 in Nashville, Tennessee. The vice presidential debate will take place on Oct. 7 in Salt Lake City, Utah and will be moderated by USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page.


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