Hollywood Is Facing Its Worst Domestic Box Office In 24 Years

Tenet, Wonder Woman 1984, Black Widow, Mulan and No Time To Die can’t save the 2020 box office, but they can give theaters a chance to rebound in 2021.

Due to theater closures, the domestic box office this year has earned $1.009 billion thus far. For reference, Star Wars: The Force Awakens alone grossed $937 million in 2015/2016, or $1.006 billion adjusted for inflation. Even absent coronavirus, total box office likely would have been well below the last few years, thanks to a lack of A++ Disney releases and a slate (save for maybe Wonder Woman 1984) closer in scale to 2014 than 2018. With many tentpoles already moved to next year and an uncertain theatrical environment (thanks to understandable political and social unrest and continued pandemic-related concerns), we could be looking at a record-low cumulative box office, at least for the modern megaplex era, even if theaters re-open next month.

The Year That Wasn’t Thus Far…

Had theaters not closed in mid-March, we’d probably be looking at a “year to date” total of around $2.5-$3 billion. That’s presuming $200-$250 million domestic totals for A Quiet Place part II, Mulan, No Time to Die, Black Widow and F9, $100 million each for Trolls: World Tour and The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run (Sponge Out of Water grossed $163 million way back in 2015) and $50 million each Scoob and Spiral. Throw in around $150 million for smaller films and holdover business and that gets you $2.609 billion heading into June. Even assuming the “year to date” would be closer to $3 billion, that’s below 2019 ($4.16 billion), 2018 ($4.3 billion), 2017 ($3.869 billion) and 2016 ($3.698 billion).

To be fair, the last few years have offered massively successful pre-summer or early summer blow-out flicks. Just in the pre-summer seasons, Captain Marvel earned $426 million domestic in 2019, Black Panther earned $700 million in 2018 and Beauty and the Beast earned $504 million alongside Logan and Fate of the Furious’ respective $226 million domestic cumes in 2017. 2016 had a quadruple threat of Deadpool ($363 million), Zootopia ($341 million), Batman v Superman ($330 million) and The Jungle Book ($366 million), while early 2015 saw American Sniper ($350 million), Fifty Shades of Grey ($166 million) and Furious 7 ($353 million) crushing it prior to the proper summer season.

Moreover, even if No Time to Die and Mulan had performed at or above expectations, there would be nothing in the summer to compare with Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 in 2018 or Avengers: Endgame and Aladdin in 2019. Unless, for example, No Time to Die, Black Widow and/or F9 played closer domestically to Skyfall ($304 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($389 million) and Furious 7 ($353 million) than Spectre ($200 million), Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($259 million) and Fast & Furious 6 ($238 million), this weekend’s release of Wonder Woman 1984 would likely have heralded the year’s first domestic mega-hit.

Too Many Key 2020 Tentpoles Were Delayed To 2021.

The key problem going forward, assuming A) theaters re-open as scheduled and B) audiences actually show up, is that this year has already lost several of its presumed blockbuster/tentpole releases. F9, fled to April 2, 2021, while Scoob! and Trolls: World Tour skipped theaters and became PVOD events. Ditto last weekend’s intended newbie, Artemis Fowl, which will debut on June 12 on Disney+. The Forever Purge (July 10) has been delayed indefinitely, Minions 2 and Jungle Cruise moved from this July to next July, Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard moved from thus August to next August and In the Heights moved from this June to next June. Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Morbious will open in early 2021.

Venom 2: Let There Be Carnage moved from October 2, 2020 to June 25, 2021. Without Remorse notwithstanding, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tenet or Wonder Woman 1984 move to October 2. Speaking of which, Wonder Woman 1984, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge On The Run, Antebellum, Mulan and A Quiet Place Part II will (allegedly) open between July 24 and September 4 of this year, all presuming Chris Nolan’s Tenet opens as scheduled on July 17 to decent business. Black Widow shifted into Eternals’ initial November 6 slot while No Time to Die opens in November. Candyman, Soul and Top Gun: Maverick will now open on September 12, November 20 and December 23.

Ryan Reynolds’ Free Guy moved from early July to early December. New Mutants will allegedly open August 28, 2020 almost three years after the first trailer. Among the year’s biggies that haven’t moved, aside from Tenet, Dune is still scheduled for December 18 alongside West Side Story and Coming 2 America. Godzilla Vs. Kong is (for now) still scheduled for November 20 and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It is still set for September 11. Death on the Nile, The Witches and Halloween Kills are still slated for October. As you can see, even if theaters open next month, several of this year’s biggest hits will now be some of next year’s biggest hits.

Domestic Box Office May Dip Below $6 Billion For The First Time Since 1996.

Recall how badly the overall domestic summer box office hurt in 2014 (-16% compared to 2013) when just The Good Dinosaur, Furious 7 and Fifty Shades of Grey moved to 2015. The absence of those three presumed biggies with nothing to fill the vacuum, along with Transformers: Age of Extinction slightly underperforming domestically ($245 million versus $353 million for Dark of the Moon), led to weeks of “Summer 2014 is in a slump!” media chatter. This year will always have an asterisk no matter how this all plays out, but the slate closer in scale to 2014 than 2018 combined with the delays and upheavals threaten to leave the overall domestic box office on a metaphorical all-time low.

Even if Black Widow, Soul, Mulan, A Quiet Place Part II, Wonder Woman 1984, No Time to Die, Tenet and Top Gun: Maverick perform as well as hoped, the gap from Minions, F9, Venom 2 and Jungle Cruise alone could leave a sizable crater in the cumulative box office for this year. That’s to say nothing of the smaller films no longer playing in theaters and/or the aforementioned biggies (and non-event releases) now potentially earning less than expected due to audiences being even less willing to see a movie in theaters. Conventional wisdom suggested this year’s cume would be around 40% below last year’s $11.4 billion cume, which would be around $6.85 billion total. That may be optimistic.

If we get further delays or under-performing existing tentpoles, well, we haven’t had a year under $6 billion (sans inflation, and the $1.3 billion cume in 1977 would be around $5.769 billion adjusted)) since 1996 (even if 1997 was powered by Titanic at the end). The 2015 summer slate jumped 10% thanks to Avengers: Age of Ultron and Jurassic World while the delayed biggies (Furious 7, Fifty Shades) along with American Sniper gave early 2015 an early boost. The hope is that the delayed biggies (F9, Jungle Cruise, etc.) and the “still set for 2021” tentpoles (Jurassic World: Dominion, Avatar 2, etc.) will lead to a massive rebound next year to make up for what could be record-low grosses this year.

Epilogue

If theaters remain closed for much of the year, we could see the first under-$3 billion annual cume since 1983 or maybe the first under-$2 billion cume in 40 years. The upcoming 2020 tentpoles like Tenet, Wonder Woman 1984, Black Widow and No Time to Die aren’t tasked with “saving” the 2020 theatrical industry, because it’s too late for that. They can, to quote Star Trek III, turn death into a fighting chance to live in 2021 and beyond. The next wave of biggies is arguably about giving the theatrical industry time to fight back next year, to give them, quoting a lesser entry in Chris Nolan’s favorite franchise, a chance to die another day.