How Mike Conley Can Win ESPN’s HORSE Tournament

Sunday night will mark the debut of ESPN’s NBA HORSE tournament, and Utah Jazz point guard Mike Conley will be among the eight participants. He’ll face off with former WNBA star Tamika Catchings in the first round of the single-elimination tournament, with each player filming from home locations for their matchup. The semi-finals and finals will be Thursday.

As our quarantine wears on, the basketball geeks among us have very few chances to do anything resembling analysis – so few, in fact, that we’re seizing even on opportunities like these. Based on what we know about Mike Conley the NBA player, here are the three shots he should lean on if he wants to emerge victorious.

Off-Hand Floater

Conley has attempted 533 floaters since the beginning of the 2015-16 season, per advanced tracking data supplied by a source, one of the highest figures in the league. He’s converted at 43.2%, roughly average among guys who shoot a lot of floaters – so why is it at the top of our list?

Because Conley, a left-handed shooter, shoots his floater with his right hand. A brief video examination of the 48 shots NBA.com listed as “floating jump shots” shows he took 44 of them with his right this season, and one of the lefty attempts was an end-of-quarter heave from beyond three.

It’s a habit born of a lifetime of ambidexterity and creativity, one of the more unique skills among guards in the NBA. It seems fair to assume Conley would be much higher on that floater leaderboard if every other guy on it was shooting exclusively with his off-hand.

And assuming this tournament uses widely-accepted HORSE rules, which allow the initial shooter to designate dominant or off-hand for a given shot, this should be his prrimary look. There might not be another basketball player on earth who has put in as many reps with an off-hand floater as Conley over the last several years; even a guy like Trae Young, one of the best floater shooters in the league and a possible later-round opponent for Conley, shoots almost all of his with his dominant hand. Go to this well early and often, Mike.

Step-Back Three

(Another assumption being made here for the sake of fun: Conley and the other HORSE participants have the space to attempt NBA-length three-pointers.)

Conley is no James Harden, who has monopolized the step-back three-pointer; Harden attempted 472 step-back threes just this season alone, more than Conley or most other players have attempted in their whole careers. Quietly, though, he’s pretty good at shooting them.

Per NBA.com data, Conley has canned 51 of his 110 step-back threes since the start of the 2016-17 season. He uses nice, compact footwork to free himself up for comfortable looks:

One might assume someone like Young would hold an edge in these sorts of shots if the two met later in the tournament, but the numbers to this point in their NBA careers suggest otherwise (albeit on limited samples). Young has made 34.7% of his step-back three-point attempts since entering the league, a far cry from Conley’s 46.2% during that same time period.

(An aside: Steph Curry is listed as shooting 59.8% on these shots since the start of the 2016-17 season. There are probably some issues with the way this data is kept; still, good lord.)

Bank Shots

If the top two options fail, Conley has also shown some nice touch off the glass throughout his career. He’s 41-for-74 on bank shots over the last four regular seasons, per NBA.com, a nice 55% that mostly originates from his floater arsenal:

In the biggest clutch moments, this could be Conley’s go-to look. Adding in a layer of difficulty while forcing his opponent to shoot the off-hand format they’re less comfortable with is probably the biggest edge he’s going to find, especially against savants like Young or Chris Paul.

Enjoy the HORSE shenanigans, everyone, and continue to stay safe and love each other.