How ‘Sonic’ Sequel Represents First-In-A-Generation Success For Paramount

Paramount hasn’t had a new non-horror franchise that spawned a successful sequel for Paramount since Star Trek and G.I. Joe in 2009.

According to DEG, which tracks combined transactions for post-theatrical viewing (physical media sales, digital rentals, etc.), the top film from last week was Sonic the Hedgehog. After breaking records for a video game adaptation when it opened this past February, the film has shined (relatively speaking) as a family-friendly “stuck at home” title, allegedly selling nearly two million units since exiting theaters prematurely due to coronavirus-related closures. With decent reviews, solid buzz and $146 million domestic (a record for a video game movie) and $306 million worldwide (with more potentially to come in Japan and China) on an $85 million budget, it’s no surprise that Paramount and Sega have began development on a sequel.

So says The Hollywood Reporter, Jeff Fowler will again direct with Pat Casey and Josh Miller returning to pen the new screenplay. Neal H. Moritz, Toby Ascher and Toru Nakahara are producing the untitled Sonic the Hedgehog 2, with Hajime Satomi, Haruki Satomi and Tim Miller executive producing. There’s no word as to whether the first film’s stars will return, but I’d argue that the participation of James Marsden, Jim Carrey and Tiki Sumpter are essential elements along with Ben Schwartz (who voiced Sonic). This film was a hit not just because of the IP, but also because A) it was a pretty good movie and B) it had winning characters and strong cast chemistry.

The use of Carrey was canny casting, blending nostalgia for the 1990’s video game and nostalgia for Carrey’s breakout years (from Ace Ventura: Pet Detective in 1994 to Liar, Liar in 1997) in a winning old-school comic turn that worked on unknowing kids and their nostalgic parents. Since (not really a spoiler) all of these folks are alive by the end of the first film, I’d be shocked not to see a Mummy Returns-style reunion. Moreover, since, unlike Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles reboot, audiences liked the first Sonic and liked the characters (Marsden was an especially strong anchor for the comparatively grounded fantasy hijinks), folks will likely show up for this installment.

While Sonic the Hedgehog 2 may not be a “breakout sequel” (it certainly has the necessary elements), there’s less chance of it being a “audiences were only curious the first time” follow-up. Yes, it could play like recent animated sequels (Angry Birds 2, LEGO Movie 2, Secret Life of Pets 2) where the first film played four-quadrants while the sequel only played to kids. As long as the budget doesn’t skyrocket, Paramount and Sega should be able to handle a reasonable downturn. With an added value character (Tails) and a potential to explore Sonic’s fantastical home world, I’d be shocked by a TMNT: Into the Shadows-level collapse (from $491 million in 2014 to $246 million in 2016).

Sonic could be Paramount’s first “new” non-horror franchise (all due respect to Paranormal Activity and presumably A Quiet Place) to spawn a successful sequel FOR Paramount since Star Trek and G.I. Joe in 2009. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a smash in 2014 and Daddy’s Home earned $243 million on a $50 million budget in 2015, but both respective sequels stumbled, with Daddy’s Home 2 earning just $181 million on a $69 million budget in November of 2017. Even Star Trek Into Darkness earned less in North America ($229 million in 2013 versus $256 million in 2009) while a 3-D conversion and increased overseas interest allowed for a larger global take ($467 million versus $385 million).

The first Thor and Captain America movies were distributed by Paramount, but the sequels (Thor: The Dark World in 2013 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier in 2014) arrived courtesy of Walt Disney after Disney bought Marvel in 2009. Ditto the $494 million-grossing How To Train Your Dragon in 2010 spawning a $620 million-grossing sequel for DreamWorks at a time when DWA toons were being distributed by 20th Century Fox. Even the two G.I. Joe movies weren’t exactly mega-hits, with Stephen Sommers’ (underrated) Rise of Cobra earning $302 million on a $150 million budget in 2009 and Jon M. Chu’s (sadly politically prescient) Retaliation earning $375 million on a $130 million budget in 2013.

Since 2015, they’ve had a failed Jack Reacher sequel ($162 million on a $96 million budget), the aforementioned failed Daddy’s Home and TMNT sequels, an underwhelming Star Trek Beyond ($338 million on a $185 million budget), the collapse of Transformers (The Last Knight earned just $604 million in 2017, compared to $1.1 billion for Age of Extinction in 2014) and two failed attempts to restart the Terminator franchise (Genisys in 2015 and Dark Fate in 2019). The Mission: Impossible films are still crushing it worldwide and xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (after two prior xXx distributed by Sony) earned a promising $385 million worldwide on an $85 million budget in 2017.

But in terms of “new” franchises spawning successful sequels, it’s been awhile. To be fair, that’s partially because, again, the successes they had with Iron Man, Thor and Captain America ended up benefiting Disney, both in terms of The Avengers in 2012 and the next wave of sequels to franchises that originated in 2008 and 2011. And their DWA triumphs, Madagascar, Kung Fu Panda and How to Train Your Dragon especially, ended up providing blockbuster sequels to Fox in the form of How to Train Your Dragon 2, Kung Fu Panda 3 and Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted. Oh, and the bottom fell out for old-school, star-driven studio programmers that used to be Paramount’s bread-and-butter.

If Sonic the Hedgehog 2 qualifies as at least a moderate success, it’ll be the first time in a generation for the fabled studio in terms of getting a new non-horror franchise off the ground to their own benefit without the property crashing after take-off. Heck, outside of acquired properties (the MCU, Lucasfilm, etc.), animation and those live-action remakes of already established Disney toons, even Walt Disney has struggled with “new” live-action franchises since Pirates of the Caribbean in 2003 and National Treasure in 2004. As such, the relative triumph of Sonic the Hedgehog, within the cursed sub-genre of video game movies, is even more impressive.