How The Utah Jazz Can Survive Against The Denver Nuggets Without Mike Conley

Congratulations to Utah Jazz guard Mike Conley and wife Mary on the birth of their newest child, for which Conley departed the Orlando NBA campus over the weekend. Initial timelines had pegged the due date closer to the start of September, so this was a little earlier than expected, but such is life (literally).

Family should and does come first; kudos to Mike and Mary for prioritizing.

“Him and his family are growing. From our point of view, we 100% support him going to see his family,” said Joe Ingles. “On the flip side of that, he’s a big part of our team.”

Conley’s absence will unquestionably hurt the Jazz. Utah was a robust +5.1 points per-100-possessions with Conley on the floor during the Orlando restart and an ugly -11.3 when he sat, one of the largest discrepancies on the roster. With Bojan Bogdanovic also out due to wrist surgery, the Jazz’s two primary offseason acquisitions will be missing as they open the postseason.

How will the franchise proceed?

Timeline

Conley’s departure from Orlando was announced Sunday morning. Very few details were released, appropriate given the private nature of the situation, meaning we have to estimate in terms of potential timeline.

Really, this all depends on how long Conley chooses to remain with family to care for them in Columbus, Ohio. Mary LaReve Conley posted an Instagram story confirming the child’s birth on Sunday afternoon. One assumes Mike will remain in regular communication with the NBA regarding his whereabouts and continue to take daily COVID-19 tests – in such a scenario, he’s likely to face a four-day required quarantine upon returning to the Disney campus.

Jazz-Nuggets runs every other day starting Monday, meaning it’s safe to assume Conley misses the first two games of the series at the absolute minimum, and probably more. He’d be able to play in Sunday evening’s Game 4 if he was back in the bubble by Wednesday afternoon, and technically could have an outside shot at Friday’s Game 3 if he made it a quick turnaround and was back Monday. At the same time, not a soul would fault the man for wanting at least a day or two with his wife and the newest family addition.

This could vary wildly and we simply have to wait on the news he’s returned to Orlando before starting any countdown.

Rotation Options

Let’s get it out there from the jump: None of Quin Snyder’s options in Conley’s stead are ideal.

The Jazz have struggled all year long, with very few exceptions, when anyone but their six primaries (Conley, Gobert, Mitchell, Ingles, O’Neale, Bogdanovic) is on the floor. Bogey’s injury lowered this number to five as the trend mostly continued in Orlando; Conley’s departure makes it four. You need five guys on the court.

The simplest move would be inserting Jordan Clarkson into the starting lineup. Clarkson got the start in both of Utah’s final seeding games in place of Conley or Mitchell, a possible sign he’s first in line for a callup here.

His experience and relative success after being traded to Utah in December support his case; some of the numbers, especially those during the restart, don’t. Clarkson has logged just 23 minutes with the other four presumed starters this season, during which the group was outscored by eight points. They played just five minutes together in the bubble.

The biggest question if Snyder goes this route: Can Clarkson play a different role than he’s used to as part of starting units? These groups, which still contain Mitchell and Ingles, don’t need a ball dominator; they need guys who keep the blender going, take good shots and defend. These aren’t Clarkson’s hallmarks, per se.

He’s shown some wiggle – his usage rate with this group for the year, on a tiny sample, is in line with Ingles and well below Mitchell’s, as it should be. But he’s reverted back to more me-first ball in the bubble, including in brief appearances with the primaries.

“For me, starting, coming off the bench, doesn’t matter,” Clarkson said. “When I’m on the court, I try to impact the game while I’m out there.”

An alternative this pen endorses: Start rookie Miye Oni, who has already been making a strong case for a rotation spot in Orlando.

Oni isn’t Clarkson’s caliber of basketball player in a vacuum, but we’re not in a vacuum. There’s a very real case the youngster is the better fit with these groups, plus allows for less damage at the end of the rotation.

We don’t have robust-sample numbers to back this up. They don’t exist in Oni’s case, though his plus-15 against Denver during the seeding games – including multiple stretches inside the main rotation alongside key players – is a nice carrot. No, we’re doing some guestimating based on fit and role.

Oni was the better catch-and-shoot guy than Clarkson this year from the NBA-length three-point line at both levels. That’s big for a starting group that, with Conley, was generating a wide open three (no defender within six feet) slightly more than once every five possessions during the restart, per tracking data via a source – that number would easily lead the NBA among teams, and most are of the spot-up variety.

Differences in accuracy on these looks between Oni and Clarkson are small enough to dismiss, but other elements of their game point in the same direction. Oni never needs the ball to function as a key cog, ideal for a group with Mitchell, Ingles and Gobert all worthy of high usage. Clarkson can hit his shots, sure, but those other guys may as well start jogging back on defense once he gets the ball.

Oni is the better and more committed defender, able to guard a larger variety of players – potentially vital against the bigger, stronger Nuggets. He’s boasting more steals than turnovers to this point in Orlando:

He spent time on fellow rookie and Nuggets sensation Michael Porter Jr. during their seeding matchup and didn’t look out of place despite giving up several inches in height. It may seem a small thing, but watch him (lower part of the screen) ward off the bigger Porter with a solid box-out on the defensive end:

Denver was a top-three team in the entire league on the offensive glass for the year, and that was before adding Porter – at 6-foot-10 – as their starting small forward. The defensive boards could be a major concern for the Jazz, especially against those starting units.

Clarkson was the team’s worst rebounder this season by percentage; Oni, meanwhile, was among the G-League’s best on the boards among guards, and posted a higher rebounding rate than Mitchell or Bogdanovic during his brief NBA minutes this year. He can get up in traffic:

Frankly, the Jazz might legitimately need Oni’s athleticism in this series.

This isn’t to suggest Clarkson shouldn’t play a big role sans Conley. He’ll need to play a lot and will almost certainly be on the court to finish close games. Starting Oni, though, allows Clarkson’s skills to really be put to best use – and allows Snyder to steer clear of a few other trickle-down effects.

If this pen wrote the Conley-less rotations, they’d feature Oni starting and Clarkson as the sixth man and de facto “backup point guard,” though he’ll share that role. Clarkson would play every minute where Mitchell sat, usually with Ingles beside him to help with ball creation duties. Oni would essentially function as the fifth wing, filling in as-needed.

The alternative for Snyder is reinserting Emmanuel Mudiay into the rotation, which just seems untenable at this point. Mudiay is virtually a carbon copy of Clarkson on this roster, only worse at everything; he’s completely redundant if the two play together, and you prefer Clarkson if you can only have one. The Jazz’s offense was a disaster anytime Mudiay stepped on the floor in Orlando no matter who else was out there, largely because defenses completely ignored him without the ball to clog the lane – something they can’t do with Oni, a capable shooter, spacing the floor.

The proposed arrangement with Oni starting and Mudiay outside the rotation places major stress on guys like Mitchell and Ingles to create offense. There’s no way around that. There’s no perfect answer here.

To this eye, though, that’s preferable to subjecting this roster to more Mudiay minutes. Mitchell is used to this burden, even if the initial goal this year was to lessen it somewhat. Ingles sliced up the Nuggets for 13 assists a week ago. He’s ready to have the ball in his hands a lot.

“I’m comfortable doing that, I’ve done it before,” Ingles said of playing with the ball in his hands more often. “When Mike was out earlier in the year, me and Donovan played more of that responsibility.”

There’s still a ton of shooting to place around these guys and space the floor out, especially if Mudiay isn’t on the floor. If Snyder needs an eighth guy at the back end of the rotation, he can eat a few minutes with Juwan Morgan or Jarrell Brantley as changes of pace. Fatigue could play a role, yes, but that’s mitigated somewhat if Conley is back by Game 4.

This won’t be easy. Conley’s absence stretching beyond Game 5 makes a series win pretty unlikely for the Jazz. But if they can tread water and steal one or two in his absence, you never know.