How To Cash In Betting Errol Spence Vs. Danny Garcia: 4 Bets Where Oddsmakers Provide Value

On Saturday night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Errol Spence will defend his IBF and WBC welterweight titles against former two-division world champion, Danny Garcia. The fight will broadcast via FOX Sports PBC Pay-Per-View.

According to the boxing odds at BetOnline, Spence is a -450 favorite (wager $450 to win $100) and Garcia is an underdog at +360 (wager $100 to win $360). The line for the total rounds is over 10 1/2 at -280 (wager $280 to win $100) and under 10 1/2 rounds at +220 (wager $100 to win $220).

As always, I’m emphasizing the importance of line value when betting on boxing or any sport for that matter. It’s understanding where the value is and taking advantage of it at the right time as lines are always moving based on how the sports bettors are placing bets. In this particular case, both bettors and the oddsmakers might have some questions as Saturday night nears.

Below is where I feel the oddsmakers have provided the best value for bettors to cash in.

1.) Errol Spence Jr to win by Decision or Technical Decision -138 (Wager $138 to win $100). The biggest question that the oddsmakers have most likely been wrestling with over the past few weeks is which Spence is going to enter the ring on December 4. Is it the same Spence that defeated Shawn Porter on September 28, 2019 in Los Angeles or did the highly publicized car accident that Spence was involved in just 12 days later during the early morning hours of October 10 leave a lasting effect on him that will translate to his performance on Saturday. The truth is that we won’t know until Spence fights. One thing we do know is that if we feel Spence is going to win on Saturday night, taking the long layoff into consideration and uncertainty as to how he might even feel against a top level opponent like Garcia, who has also been out of the ring going on one year. While the oddsmakers clearly feel Spence is the favorite at -450, the true betting value is in method of victory. My sense is that Spence will look to win this fight with his size, length and use of the jab, looking to avoid dangerous engagement. This could translate into a more cautious decision victory. At -138, there is great value in this pick.

2.) Over 10 1/2 rounds -280 (Wager $280 to win $100). While it’s not exactly what I would call the greatest value in the world, since we’re already looking at Spence by decision, we might as well bet the over rounds in the fight. Both the Spence by decision and over 10 1/2 rounds is still better line value combined than picking Spence just to win at -450. We’re simply doubling down on the fact that we already established we’re putting money a decision win.

3.) Draw +2000 (Wager $100 to win $2000). This bet is sort of a hedge. The value is also too good to pass up and we have to take into consideration that what if Spence isn’t the same fighter? Let’s also keep in mind that Garcia’s losses have been extremely close losses and could have gone either way in both the Thurman split decision loss and Porter unanimous decision loss. Let’s also keep in mind that Spence defeated Porter by split decision in a very close fight that could have gone either way if it weren’t for Spence knocking Porter down in round 11. Regardless, the line value is too good and just in case we’re getting the best Garcia against a tentative Spence, there could be some very close rounds that could be come difficult for judges to score. The line value is too good to pass up.

3.) Danny Garcia to win by Decision or Technical Decision+500 (Wager $100 to win $500). Before you jump down my throat and tell me I already picked Spence to win by decision, remember, this is about picks that provide value. I leave it up to you to decide who you feel is going to win the fight. Although I feel that Spence is going to win, there’s too much value not to consider taking Garcia at +500. Like I said, Garcia’s losses have been close and extremely respectable. He’s a former two division world champion and will be prepared when he enters the ring on Saturday. Regardless, there’s good value in this pick and with the over in the rounds and picking both Spence and Garcia to win by decision, it makes financial sense.

We’re going to lose some of the picks, but depending on what happens will determine how much value we earned in the wins. The only way we lose across the board is if there’s a knockout.

Whatever you choose to do with this information, please bet responsibly.