JoJo Diaz Vs. Shavkat Rakhimov: Odds, Purses, Records, Prediction

JoJo Diaz had the fight of his life last 13 months ago when he beat Tevin Farmer to win his 130-pound title and to stamp himself as one of the best at junior lightweight. But just because most casual fight fans might not know Diaz’s opponent on Saturday, that doesn’t mean Shavkat Rakhimov couldn’t wallop Diaz in his first title defense. Here’s everything you need to know about JoJo Diaz Vs. Shavkat Rakhimov, including the odds, the purses, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Originally, Diaz and Farmer were supposed to tangle again in a rematch, and since Farmer, a technically savvy boxer, presents plenty of style difficulties for most opponents, Diaz might have had a tough time retaining his title. That fight, though, has fallen through, giving Rakhimov the most important shot of his career.

Is it possible for the underdog Rakhimov to give Diaz an even tougher fight than Farmer would have presented?

“I have this tough challenger ahead of me. We’ve taken this fight very seriously. We know exactly what he is all about,” Diaz said this week. “We know what he’s capable of doing, and we know he is a serious threat. But we know we’ll be able to adapt to anything on Saturday night.”

Since losing to Gary Russell Jr. in 2018, Diaz has been hot, winning five-straight bouts. But if you put Diaz a talent level below the likes of fellow junior lightweights Miguel Berchelt, Gervonta “Tank” Davis and Shakur Stevenson, you’re not alone.

“I don’t feel like I get the respect that I deserve in this division,” Diaz said. “In my career in general, I haven’t gotten the respect that I deserve. But it’s all good. I’ve already dealt with so much adversity in my life. I’m already immune to it.”

He’ll have to overcome even more adversity on Saturday, but this time, it’s his own fault. On Friday, Diaz weighed in at 113.6, nearly four pounds heavier than the junior lightweight limit. That means he’s lost his title on the scales, and Rakhimov is the only one who can walk away with the belt. And according to Rakhimov, Diaz won’t be immune to the title challenger’s strength.

“JoJo is a good boxer,” Rakhimov said. “But he will not be able to handle my power.”

Here’s more info on the JoJo Diaz Vs. Shavkat Rakhimov showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on DAZN beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

JoJo Diaz Vs. Shavkat Rakhimov odds

Before it was revealed on Friday that Diaz missed weight, he was a -200 favorite, meaning you’d have to bet $200 to win $100. Rakhimov was +150, which means you’d win $150 on a $100 wager. Since earlier this month, when Diaz was -250 and Rakhimov was +175, the odds have narrowed. I was all set to pick Diaz to win this fight, but that debacle of a weigh-in is messing with my head, and now I’d put my money on Rakhimov. I’d like it even better by taking Rakhimov by stoppage at +600.

The over-under on rounds is 10.5 with the under at +400 and the over at -600. At this point, I’d take the under.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only my opinion and not a recommendation), I might take Rakhimov by stoppage at +600, Josh Warrington by decision vs. Mauricio Lara at +240, and Brian Castano to beat Patrick Teixeira at -600. That $100 bet would pay a whopping $2,676 at the time of this writing.

But if you still want to wager on Diaz, look at where he’s placing his money.

JoJo Diaz Vs. Shavkat Rakhimov purses

According to boxing journalist Manouk Akopyan, Diaz was supposed to make a $500,000 purse, while Rakhimov was going to earn $100,000. But the California State Athletic Commission fined Diaz $100,000 for missing weight. Half of that will go to Rakhimov. The other half stays with the CSAC.

So, now, Diaz will make $400,000 and Rakhimov will earn $150,000.

JoJo Diaz Vs. Shavkat Rakhimov records

Diaz’s win vs. Farmer 13 months ago was impressive. Diaz was about a 2/1 underdog vs. Farmer but managed to win the close unanimous decision. It’s not Diaz’s only impressive win, though. Yes, he fell to Russell, but before that, Diaz knocked off the then-undefeated Rafael Rivera and Manuel Avila and also stopped Andrew Cancio. Said Diaz, who is now 31-1 with 15 KOs: “I faced a bit of adversity in the Gary Russell Jr. fight. I learned a lot that night. But I won’t let anything else prevent me from being what I want to be and doing what I want to do I the ring.”

The only somewhat recognizable name on Rakhimov’s resume is Robinson Castellanos, who was knocked out by Rakhimov in 2018. But Rakhimov’s 15-0 (12 KOs) record is impressive anyway, and the Russia native has stopped his last four opponents.

JoJo Diaz Vs. Shavkat Rakhimov prediction

Rakhimov is one of the most powerful punchers Diaz has ever faced, and though Diaz has never been knocked down as a professional, his chin certainly could be tested on Saturday. Diaz likely will have to count on his boxing ability to keep Rakhimov away from him, but it’s super disappointing that he came in so heavy. Maybe Diaz is too heavy for the weight class. Maybe he didn’t train enough. Either way, it’s a bad sign for Diaz. He’s coming off one of the best wins of his life, but he’s going to struggle to score another victory. I don’t think he will. Say, Rakhimov by stoppage in the eighth round.  

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