Kentucky Derby 2020: The Draw, The Odds, And Why The Race Is Tiz The Law’s To Lose

That Tiz The Law would go off as the heavy favorite in the 2020 Kentucky Derby seemed like a cinch as he handily took the abbreviated Belmont in June, and trainer Barclay Tagg’s old-school race-’em-if-you-got-’em training strategy seems to have proved out with the stallion’s decisive Travers win on August 8. In what we might call a topsy-turvy year across all sports, and especially in horse racing’s 2020 season, Tagg’s logic is actually impeccable: The pandemic pushed the Belmont into June, the Travers was brought up by three weeks, and Tagg was sitting there with a healthy horse who needed to run. Why not make some money and give him a good blowout at his home track.

Tiz the Law’s training well, and his odds are, as expected, down in the bookmakers’ sub-basements on both sides of the Atlantic. But before we get into who might give him a run for his money on Saturday in Louisville, for comparison with today’s Churchill morning line, here’s a sample. Hometown operator Twinspires’ tout Joe Kristufek has Tiz the Law at 8-5, while holding Honor AP as his second favorite at 9-2, and Art Collector in the third spot at a flat 5-1. (Source: Twinspires, 8/31/20)

The gimlet-eyed oddsmen at CBS Sports break the large and unruly Derby field down this way:

Tiz the Law 4-5

Art Collector 9-2

Honor A.P. 7-1

Authentic 10-1

Thousand Words 12-1

King Guillermo 24-1

Enforceable 28-1

Ny Traffic 30-1

Max Player 40-1

Sole Volante 50-1

Storm the Court 60-1

Attachment Rate 65-1

Major Fed 75-1

Shirl’s Speight 100-1

Finnick the Fierce 125-1

Necker Island 150-1

Here to parse the race for us is the inimitable Kentucky horseman, the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, who has so generously shared his deep knowledge of horses and racing with us in many Triple Crown seasons past. Note: A native Kentuckian and an owner, the Wise Man has no horses running in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

Let’s deal with some of what we’ve come to know as the 2020 asterisks. What should we be keeping in mind.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Yes, the Derby has been delayed, but the main thing is, the race is being run at the same length, one-and-a-quarter miles, so I don’t think that what we think of as this year’s extraordinary, history-making calendar flips matter that much. Main thing, are the horses in shape? Well, if they want to get anything done out there at a mile-and-a-quarter, they better be. Tiz The Law is still the favorite, still won the Belmont and the Travers, and is pretty much the man to beat. The Travers didn’t function as the Travers, really, but neither did the Haskell or the Belmont. I don’t think the rest of what we consider the complications is all that meaningful.

Post positions.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Here there’s a little irony at work, and here we’re lucky. When they moved the Belmont to June, the horses had more or less been on lockdown with the rest of us, which was why they shortened that race. Now, because the Derby is happening at a point in the season late enough so that the horses have been run a bit, we can keep it the same length. Miraculously, the Derby’s the same race, okay, same place for the starting gate, all that. The lateness of the race also means that there are enough horses around so that we’re getting the usual, rowdy, large Derby field. All kinds of horses are in this thing. So that means that post positions matter as much as they ever do in a Derby, which is a lot. That run to the first turn is gonna be a melee.

We’ll go into detail on the spoilers later, but how do you see Tiz The Law handling that.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: The Derby’s always going to present every horse in it with many chances to screw up, especially in the break and getting to the first turn. Just looking at some of these fifty- and hundred-to-one contenders means that anything can happen. Is anybody gonna freak out? It’s the Derby, so it’s a given that anybody can freak out. That said, it’s safe to say Tiz The Law’s proven himself out of the gate, he’s a steady horse, and I’d count him among the least likely to have a bad break. He’ll want to find himself somewhere off the pace and just settle in.

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