Los Angeles Rams Get Two-Pronged Benefit From Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff Trade

The first domino of a fascinating offseason fell before the 2020 NFL campaign had even drawn to a close on Saturday as the Los Angeles Rams struck a trade with the Detroit Lions to make Matthew Stafford their new quarterback.

Reflecting the price of business when it comes to acquiring a quarterback of Stafford’s undoubted gifts, the cost was steep for the Rams.

Los Angeles sent former number one overall pick Jared Goff – fresh from another unconvincing season that clearly wore down head coach Sean McVay’s patience – along with a third-round pick in this year’s draft and first-rounders in 2022 and 2023 to land the man taken in first in 2009.

The advantages of the deal for the Lions are obvious. As a team looking to rebuild with a new starting quarterback, the extra picks give them added ammunition with which to attack future drafts or potentially make a move up from number seven in this one. By acquiring Goff, they at least have a placeholder who can start while they prepare a rookie to eventually enter the fray.

Los Angeles will now not have a first-round pick until 2024. The Rams have not picked in the opening round since selecting Goff in 2016.

However, the benefits of the deal, despite the significant expense in terms of capital are two-fold, with Los Angeles improving at the game’s most important position while moving on from a contract that had become a hindrance to the franchise.

Stafford’s superiority

The Rams have made the playoffs in three of their four seasons under McVay, coming up short in Super Bowl LIII at the end of the 2018 campaign.

Boasting a defense that ranked first in weighted DVOA in 2020, according to Football Outsiders, and one of the best offensive-minded head coaches in the NFL, they are worthy of the tag of NFC heavyweight.

Yet their ceiling on the offensive side of the ball has often been limited by Goff, who ranks 22nd in the Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage Over Expectation composite (EPA + CPOE) metric developed by Ben Baldwin of The Athletic in his four seasons under McVay.

Stafford ranks a spot below him but has had to work in a significantly worse ecosystem. The Rams rank eighth in rushing EPA per play since 2017, per Baldwin, with the Lions 31st in the league in the same span.

Additionally, the Rams’ defense is second in EPA per play allowed since 2017 while the Lions again rank second to the last.

And yet it is Stafford who has been the superior quarterback over the last two seasons. He is 16th in EPA + CPOE since 2019, whereas Goff is 24th.

Stafford has also had the edge in DVOA in each of the past two seasons. In a stellar 2019 cut short by injury, he was fourth in the NFL, 18 places ahead of Goff. He dropped to 14th in 2020 but was still eight spots above Goff.

In other words, Stafford is a quarterback who has previously managed to excel with one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL, while Goff has struggled to maximize one of the best. For a team continually in the thick of the playoff hunt, it is a swap worthy of the extremely high price and one that should buy them future financial flexibility.

Salary cap benefits

According to Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap, taking into the account the $22.2 million dead money charge of trading Goff – which is nearly $13 million cheaper than his cap number in 2021 – and Stafford’s $20 million salary, the trade cost the Rams $7.25 million in salary cap space.

In an offseason where the cap is set to shrink, that may seem like a questionable move, but in truth it is a small price to play for getting Goff’s exorbitant contract off the books.

Goff has cap numbers of over $32 million in 2022 and 2023. Stafford will have a cap hit of $26 million in 2022 and is set for free agency in 2023.

That $6 million difference in cap hit may not seem much on the surface but, should the NFL get fans in the stands in 2021 and allow the cap to bounce back in 2022, it will serve as extra breathing room for the Rams to be aggressive in maintaining a roster that is among the most well-rounded in the NFL.

Should Stafford live up to expectations, there will be an extension to consider. As their decisions in trading for top-flight talent in recent times suggest, the Rams will be only too happy to oblige provided he delivers the expected results.

That raises the prospect of Stafford being under center for the long term for a team that has Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey tied down until 2025 and 2026 respectively. For a franchise that lives perpetually in win-now mode, the Stafford deal could set the Rams up superbly for the present and the future.