March Madness: Will Victories In NFL Free Agency Translate To Playoff Games In January?

The Miami Dolphins haven’t dominated on the football field in years. They’ve made the playoffs just once in the last 11 seasons and haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.

At least they’re dominating free agency.

NFL free agency unofficially began on Monday – the signing period will start at 4 p.m. (Eastern) on Wednesday – and teams, as usual, are spending tens of millions of dollars to construct teams that look like on-paper champions in March.

By November and December, however, many of those on-paper contenders will be wrinkled up and tossed in the NFL’s giant recycling bucket.

Last offseason, the New York Jets wrote contracts totaling $229.7 million, according to Spotrac. That was the most in the league by about $44 million. Two months later, general manager Mike Maccagnan was fired. By midseason, the Jets were 1-7.

The Green Bay Packers were a distant second, with four huge deals contributing to most of their $185.6 million in free-agent contracts. The Buffalo Bills ($182.4 million), Oakland Raiders ($180.2 million) and Detroit Lions ($179.4 million) were right on their heels for third, four and fifth. Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver, Arizona and Minnesota rounded out the top 10.

The Jets’ spending spree resulted in a 7-9 record. It was three more wins than in 2018 but marked their fourth consecutive season with a losing record.

The Raiders also won three more games, going from 4-12 to 7-9, but it was their third consecutive losing season.

The Broncos went from 6-10 to 7-9 – their third consecutive losing season.

The Jaguars went from 5-11 to 6-10, but their combined 11 wins the past two seasons barely exceeded their 10 wins from 2017, when they reached the AFC Championship Game.

With No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray quarterback, the Cardinals went from 3-13 to 5-10-1 for a fourth consecutive season without a winning record.

The Lions plunged to 3-12-1 – three fewer wins than in 2018 and a third consecutive season out of the playoffs – though that had as much to do with quarterback Matthew Stafford going on injured reserve as anything.

Not all of that money was wasted. Green Bay went from 6-9-1 to 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game, due in large part to the additions of high-priced pass rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith and steady safety Adrian Amos. Buffalo went from 6-10 to 10-6 to reach the playoffs. The Titans recorded a fourth consecutive 9-7 season but advanced to the AFC Championship Game. The Vikings reached the playoffs for the third time in five seasons but still couldn’t get close to matching their 13-win success from 2017.

Spending in March simply doesn’t equate to playing into January. In 2018, only three of the NFL’s 10 biggest spenders made the playoffs. In 2017, it was a five/five split, though Cleveland went 0-16 and San Francisco and Chicago lost 10-plus games. In 2016, just three of the NFL’s 10 biggest spenders made the playoffs. The Jaguars, Bears and Jets lost 10-plus games. In 2015, only two of the 10 biggest spenders made the playoffs, with four teams losing 10-plus games.

Will it be any different for the Dolphins? They have agreed to contracts with cornerback Byron Jones, edge rushers Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, running back Jordan Hill and guard Ereck Flowers, among others. Jones – the NFL’s highest-paid cornerback – Lawson, Van Noy and Flowers agreed to deals worth at least $10 million per season.