MLB’s Cost-Cutting Decision To Shorten Draft Likely Will Not Cost Teams Their Next Superstars

There will be no Mike Piazza in Major League Baseball’s 2020 draft. Truth be told, there has been only one Mike Piazza, ever, in the baseball draft – an event that dates back to 1965.

So while agents, college coaches and player personnel staffs might be distraught over the chaos MLB created by trimming next month’s draft from 40 rounds to five as a cost-cutting measure, they are also fully aware that the prospects who will now go undrafted were unlikely to advance to big-league superstardom, anyway.

The Los Angeles Dodgers famously selected Piazza in the 62nd round (1,390th overall) of the 1988 draft, making him easily the best value pick in draft history. The draft doesn’t even stretch across that many rounds anymore – it was cut to 50 rounds in 1998 and to 40 in 2012 – and even if it did, the odds are heavily stacked against late-round prospects hitting it big.

According to the Associated Press, 1,082 players appeared in at least one MLB game last season after arriving in the pros via the amateur draft. Within that group, more than half of the players (589, 54.4%) were drafted in the first five rounds. Rounds six through 10 produced 204 of last season’s big-leaguers who arrived through the draft (18.9%), while 102 (9.4%) were picked in rounds 11-15 and 63 (5.8%) from rounds 16-20. There were 74 (6.8%) players who had been selected in rounds 21-30 and 50 (4.6%) from rounds 31-50.

The AP reported that the MLB Players Association turned down a proposal to hold a 10-round draft this year – the union objected to cutting draft picks’ slot values in half – after accepting a deal on March 26 that allowed MLB to restructure the 2020 season and shorten the draft.

The cost-cutting agreement, brought about when pro sports revenues were obliterated by the COVID-19 pandemic, will reportedly save just under $30 million in signing bonuses per club and allow teams to defer bonus payments instead of paying the full amount up-front. The combined value of teams’ allowable signing-bonus pools will now be nearly $236 million.

With MLB teams already looking to trim their expansive minor league infrastructure, they likely examined past draft results and recognized they probably will not miss out on future franchise players by cutting the draft to five rounds this year (and potentially to 20 rounds in 2021).

Among the 75 players selected to MLB all-star rosters in 2019, 62 of them (82.7%) were either international prospects who signed as free agents or players who were drafted within the first five rounds. The average draft position of the 58 drafted 2019 all-stars was 123.7, roughly a fourth-round pick.

A full third of last year’s all-stars (24 players, 32%) had been first-round draft picks, 13 of whom – Javier Baez, Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, Gerrit Cole, David Dahl, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Francisco Lindor, Austin Meadows, Mike Minor, Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rendon and Justin Verlander – were selected within the first 10 picks of their respective drafts.

In contrast, only 13 all-stars from 2019 were drafted in round six or later:

Round 7: Michael Brantley, Will Smith

Round 8: Tommy La Stella

Round 9: Jacob deGrom, Whit Merrifield

Round 11: John Means, Ryan Pressly, Brandon Woodruff

Round 12: Jeff McNeil

Round 15: Shane Greene

Round 19: Josh Hader

Round 20: J.D. Martinez

Round 26: Kirby Yates

Without question, there are a couple of incredible baseball players on that list. deGrom is among the sport’s most dominant pitchers, while Martinez is one of its leading sluggers. And there are many notable names across baseball history who became legitimate pro players after being drafted in the middle rounds or later.

Occasionally they even made it to Cooperstown.

When Piazza was enshrined in baseball’s Hall of Fame in 2016, he became by far the lowest-drafted player to make it to Cooperstown. Before Piazza, it was pitcher John Smoltz, whom the Detroit Tigers selected in the 22nd round of the 1985 draft.

Some others who were drafted in Round 10 or later and went on to become major stars: Keith Hernandez (42nd round), Mark Buehrle (38th), Jorge Posada (24th), Roy Oswalt (23rd), Andy Pettitte (22nd), Ryne Sandberg (20th), Don Mattingly (19th), Dave Parker (14th), Albert Pujols (13th), Jim Thome (13th), Nolan Ryan (12th) and Andre Dawson (11th).

Again, though, the late-round all-stars and Hall of Famers were outliers. There would be a much longer list of prospects picked in similar draft slots who never garnered MLB name recognition.

Perhaps the more intriguing aspect of this year’s draft being cut to an all-time low of 160 picks is how it will impact the amateur ranks. More prospects will surely choose to play a season in junior college since that would provide an opportunity to be drafted again next year. In addition, many high school and college players who expected to sign pro contracts will now go undrafted and instead sign or stick with their four-year college programs.

Although college baseball will likely expand its allowed roster maximums for the upcoming year, the NCAA’s already-challenging 11.7-scholarship limit for college baseball will make roster management extremely difficult for coaches. Although it will be appropriate for more college baseball players to receive scholarship benefits in the 2020-21 academic year, players and their families will also have to pay a larger portion of their college expenses than they likely would have in the past.

For those who go undrafted next month and refuse to play another inning of amateur baseball, they still may sign free agent contracts. However, the maximum allowed signing bonus for any of this year’s undrafted prospects will be just $20,000. With that relatively paltry sum in mind, it seems reasonable to expect a glut of high-end talent for next year’s shortened draft, with more top college players than normal available in addition to the steady stream from the high school ranks.

2019 MLB ALL-STARS’ METHOD OF ENTRY

Amateur Free agent: Jose Abreu, Ronald Acuna Jr., Sandy Alcantara, Xander Bogaerts, Luis Castillo, Aroldis Chapman, Willson Contreras, Liam Hendriks, Ketel Marte, Jorge Polanco, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Gary Sanchez, Carlos Santana, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, Felipe Vazquez

Draft Round 1: Javier Baez, Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, Walker Buehler, Matt Chapman, Gerrit Cole, David Dahl, Lucas Giolito, Yasmani Grandal, Sonny Gray, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Francisco Lindor, Austin Meadows, Mike Minor, Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rendon, Max Scherzer, Mike Soroka, George Springer, Marcus Stroman, Mike Trout, Justin Verlander, Christian Yelich

Draft Compensatory A: Jose Berrios, Joey Gallo, Jake Odorizzi, Trevor Story

Draft Round 2: Pete Alonso, Nolan Arenado, Josh Bell, Charlie Blackmon, Freddie Freeman, Brad Hand, DJ LeMahieu, James McCann, Hunter Pence, Daniel Vogelbach

Draft Round 3: Brandon Lowe, Charlie Morton, J.T. Realmuto

Draft Round 4: Cody Bellinger, Shane Bieber, Paul DeJong

Draft Round 5: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy

Draft Round 7: Michael Brantley, Will Smith

Draft Round 8: Tommy La Stella

Draft Round 9: Jacob deGrom, Whit Merrifield

Draft Round 11: John Means, Ryan Pressly, Brandon Woodruff

Draft Round 12: Jeff McNeil

Draft Round 15: Shane Greene

Draft Round 19: Josh Hader

Draft Round 20: J.D. Martinez

Draft Round 26: Kirby Yates