NBA’s Return Plan May Wind Up Hurting The Philadelphia 76ers

The 2019-20 NBA season is set to resume July 31 after the NBA’s Board of Governors passed Commissioner Adam Silver’s proposal Thursday, which should be welcome news to basketball fans across the world.

The Philadelphia 76ers might have some mixed feelings about the specifics, though.

While the resumption of the season will give the Sixers a chance to put their roller-coaster first 65 games behind them, it could also increase their likelihood of an early playoff exit and/or cost them the Oklahoma City Thunder’s top-20-protected first-round pick.

The Sixers were one of the NBA’s most confounding teams all season, as evidenced by their league-best 29-2 record at home and horrific 10-24 record on the road (worst among all current playoff teams). Although they won’t face hostile road crowds at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida, they also won’t be buoyed by raucous Philadelphia fans at home games.

Considering how much the Sixers—particularly All-Star center Joel Embiid—appear to feed off fans’ energy, the neutral-court setting could be more of a detriment than an aid to them.

That pales in comparison to some of their larger concerns, though.

When the season shut down in mid-March, the Sixers had the league’s fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to DAZN’s Micah Adams. They had only four games remaining against teams with records above .500 (Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks) and six against current playoff teams (those four plus the Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies).

According to Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports, “the plan is for teams to continue their schedule as planned,” so the Sixers may still get a favorable draw. Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press mapped out a hypothetical schedule for each team, and only one of the Sixers’ eight games would come against top-four seeds in either conference.

That may wind up being the opposite of a blessing in disguise.

While an easy regular-season slate would afford the Sixers an opportunity to move up from the East’s No. 6 seed, a jump to No. 4 or No. 5 would all but ensure a second-round date with the Milwaukee Bucks if they won their first-round series. Is the potential downgrade in first-round difficulty worth the substantial upgrade in the second round, or would the Sixers be better off staying at No. 6 and dodging the Bucks until the conference finals?

Depending on how each team’s regular-season schedule unfolds, they may not have a choice in the matter. But the abbreviated stretch heading into the playoffs won’t help the Sixers, either.

When we last saw them in mid-March, All-Star point guard Ben Simmons was sidelined by a back injury, and rookie guard Shake Milton had stepped into the starting lineup as his replacement. The Sixers temporarily benched Al Horford heading into the All-Star break, but he worked his way back into the starting lineup after Simmons went down.

It’s unclear whether the Sixers to keep Milton in the starting lineup—which would allow Simmons to work more off the ball—and send Horford back to the bench. But if they do, they’ll have precious little time for their new starting five to develop chemistry before the playoffs begin.

As Derek Bodner of The Athletic recently noted, the five-man group of Milton, Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid has not logged a single minute together this season. Milton has spent only 113 total minutes alongside both Simmons and Embiid in eight games. Regardless of whether Milton continues starting or moves back to the bench, the Sixers will likely be far more of a work in progress than they’d prefer with only eight games to go until the playoffs.

As the Sixers seek to optimize their rotations and battle for seeding, they’ll also need to keep an eye on the Western Conference bracket.

The Thunder owe the Sixers a top-20-protected 2020 first-round pick, which will otherwise turn into 2022 and 2023 second-round picks if it isn’t conveyed this year. They’re heading into the restart at 40-24, tied with the Houston Rockets for the NBA’s ninth-best record, and hold a 1.5-game lead over the Sixers and Pacers (39-26) and Dallas Mavericks (40-27).

If the Thunder slip or the Mavericks, Pacers or Sixers surge, that first-round pick may remain in OKC. If the seedings are more or less set heading into the final few games of the regular season, it may behoove the Sixers to lose to ensure they receive the Thunder pick.

The Sixers have been maddeningly inconsistent all season, but their talent still gives them one of the NBA’s highest ceilings. If they can rally around one another in Orlando, a deep playoff run isn’t out of the question.

The shortened regular season and possibility of a Round 2 meeting with the Bucks increase the likelihood of another early-round exit, though.