New Orleans Pelicans Prepared For Hectic 2020 NBA Draft, Free Agency

Each member of the expanded front office of the New Orleans Pelicans will face one of it’s greatest professional challenges in the next few weeks. While drafting Zion Williamson was an obvious move last year, the team still invested hundreds of scouting hours put into the decisions to select Williamson along with Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Marcos ‘Didi’ Silva. Then came the efforts to sign JJ Redick and trade for Derrick Favors and the decision to keep Jahlil Okafor instead of Christian Wood.

That roster-building timeline is being accelerated this offseason. The Pelicans again have the most sought after trade option on the market in Jrue Holiday. The NBA is only allowing teams to meet with a maximum of 10 draft prospects this season for only 4.5 hours, and New Orleans has four picks plus a desire to move up in the draft. Further adding to the stretching thin of all NBA front offices, the NBA’s free agency period opens just days after the draft and trades are already being finalized. Thankfully, the Pelicans have a clean salary cap in the short and long term. The team feels prepared for the hectic hours to come later this week.

All factors are being considered by Pelicans’ Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin and the rest of the beefed-up front office. The team has their decision trees mapped out as much as possible but the rest of the NBA’s moving parts will guide some decisions in the draft and free agency. In a market short on high-end talent options, at least the Pelicans have almost all the leverage concerning restricted free agent Brandon Ingram and in negotiations for rumored trade target Jrue Holiday.

Free Agency And Contract Extensions

What do those decision trees look like in the Pelicans’ war room?

Starting with free agency and Ingram, there are only two real options in play: match an offer or just make an offer the market cannot match. Ingram is most likely going to be offered and signed to a five year, near-max extension worth over $157 million depending on salary cap increases. The Pelicans have approximately $86 million on the cap sheet next year. Ingram’s 2020-21 cap hit of over $27 million next year would wipe out the cap space the Pelicans had this offseason. Their only avenues to add talent after signing Ingram will be salary cap exceptions (Mid-level, Bi-annual), veteran minimums, buyout options, and the trade market. Either way, Ingram will be playing alongside Williamson in New Orleans next season.

Griffin has discussed character being a huge component of any hiring decision to build a sustainable championship culture. The team has placed a great value on internal scouting and development. The Pelicans have used this extra time to scout the current roster to judge what to look for in potential free agents and draft picks. That’s just part of the ongoing process to build a winning team around Williamson and Ingram.

Almost half of the team is a free agent or is up for a contract extension. Lonzo Ball may have to endure a ‘prove it’ season like Ingram just experienced. Without an extension, Ball will be a restricted free agent next year and the Pelicans can let the market dictate Ball’s value. While the team can afford to keep things close to the vest with Ball and take a wait and see approach, the decision on whether to keep Derrick Favors falls just behind the trade options for Jrue Holiday. It will be easier to stomach losing Favors if he is replaced by Christian Wood for near the same wages.

Keep Holiday and retain Favors, and the run it back attitude will be appreciated if not understood. The team was winning and showed great potential when healthy. Trading Holiday and renouncing Favors without bringing in proven replacements all but announces a rebuilding year. Holiday has a player option for the 2021-22 season, so he has some leverage. He also says he prefers to build something than chase a ring. Favors is a wily but solid 29-year-old veteran unlikely to get many offers above the Mid-Level Exception of just over $9 million. The Pelicans have his Bird Rights and can afford to retain Favors while staying below the luxury tax line. At the expected cost over return should Favors be healthy for a full season, he could be worth a roster spot even if Holiday is dealt to a contender. Jaxson Hayes still needs some guidance before he can handle 30 minutes a night.

Holiday and Favors represents the grizzled veteran category of roster decisions. The team’s decision on whether to extend Josh Hart will be one of the most scrutinized decisions by the locals, just based on his on-court energy, off-court engagement, and the team’s statements on valuing high character individuals. He has proven to be more than a mid-level player; he is capable of being an integral piece to a playoff rotation. In today’s market, Hart will get offers will north of $12 million a year. Will New Orleans pay him now or risk Hart playing his way into a far more expensive contract next year? This is just another decision sitting on the desks of the front office.

Will New Orleans commit to keeping around one of the most appreciated players in franchise history in Holiday, or one that has expressed his desire to be here on multiple occasions in Hart? If Griffin wants fans and prospective free agents to keep believing in the sustained championship culture messaging, the team will have to commit a substantial amount of cap space to the existing core in the next two seasons. Then the team will have to add to that foundation while negotiation Williamson’s extension. (Just kidding. There will be no negotiations. He is getting the max.)

New Orleans will have options in free agency. The team is still viewed as an up and coming contender and some players will want to join up just like Favors and Redick did last season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Wesley Matthews both have opted out of their player options, will be affordable enough for New Orleans, and come from championship cultures.

Keeping Kenrich Williams and Frank Jackson on veteran minimum deals keeps the cap sheet clean and some continuity going into next season. Though feelers have been sent out, getting information from potential free-agent options is just as difficult due to tampering rules. In free agency, the New Orleans will likely operate as an above the cap team once Ingram is signed to a new deal. The options to fill out the roster will be limited unless the team gets creative in the trade market.

Trade Market

The trade market for the Pelicans is divided into two options: selling Jrue Holiday for future assets or using the draft assets of the future to invest towards a winning season immediately. Speculation has been rampant but there is a consensus. The Danny Green for Dennis Schroder trade set the market. Holiday would net at least a couple of rotation players and a lottery draft pick, but that may not be enough.

New Orleans may not want to bring back much salary in a trade. Opting to cash in for draft picks to net two prospects the team is sold on leaves New Orleans with close to $25 million in cap space. Griffin could then sell that space for more draft capital or entice a useful veteran that fits the culture being created. A deal that leaves the Pelicans a substantial amount of cap space would suggest the team has other moves already planned.

Considering the medical red flags in the Denver offer or the contract decisions that would come in the Atlanta package, that could be the preferred route. Also, if the team wants to keep Holiday, Favors, Williamson, and Ingram together next season, the only players that could be traded for much of a return are Lonzo Ball, Nicolo Melli, Darius Miller, and JJ Redick. The team will not get much for throwing Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Jaxson Hayes in a trade.

Trading Holiday likely means another lottery pick next season. A package for Victor Oladipo, James Harden, or Russell Westbrook is a longshot, but there will be several second-tier stater level players on the move in the next two weeks. Could New Orleans see a way to hold on to the beloved core and also act as a third wheel in a trade, picking up Danny Green perhaps? We should know the answers well before the Thanksgiving turkeys come out of the oven.

NBA Draft

The process to prepare for the 2020 NBA Draft will be a bit more difficult this year. The Pelicans have four draft picks but can only spend a few hours with ten prospects. New Orleans landed Zion Williamson last season, in what most consider an obvious selection even after Ja Morant’s wonderful rookie season. The Pelicans required hundreds of hours of watching game film followed by several interviews to make decisions on last year’s rookies. Someone from the Pelicans likely sat in the arena to watch every Pelicans’ draft selection more than once. In the pre-draft combine process, there were some in-person conversations.

New Orleans will not be afforded all of those opportunities for the upcoming draft class under current restrictions but their selectivity in which prospects to meet gives some insight into the team’s thinking. General Manager Trajan Langdon and Swin Cash have both been scouting extensively. Tyrese Maxey and Aaron Nesmith have confirmed they met with the Pelicans.

Maxey is a combo guard that seems to know how to win. He seems to have the same fight in him as Josh Hart and the team could use that mentality going forward. Nesmith would fit as a shooter and perhaps even grow into a role that allowed the Pelicans to flip JJ Redick for assets at the trade deadline. With the pandemic restricting travel and rosters having eased restrictions concerning two-way players, the Pelicans could look to stash a couple of second-round prospects in the G-League instead of overseas like Silva. Keeping the prospects closer to the nest also makes it easier to include those picks in creating an inclusive championship culture.

With the current salary cap parameters, building through the draft will have to be a priority, both financially and in terms of building a sustainable culture. The young vet model of the past regime was unsuccessful, partly due to constantly selling off draft assets and committing too much money to the wrong free agents. However, it is unlikely the team has room for all four draft picks this year. Selling at least one for a few million is a reasonable option if there are any buyers. This team is already young enough and getting younger.

The Pelicans’ building is as tight-knit as the city proper. The chemistry in the building affects everyone from front office support staff, to a bench player, to the starting five. The culmination of this organizationally-connected process will lead the team to bring in the type of players that will support a decade of deep playoff runs. The front office is as prepared for the next two weeks as the fans are ready to see the newest edition of the team take the court during Christmas. The end result will take the court in a regular-season game in just six weeks.