Nielsen Survey: Consumers Are Slowly Returning To Bars And Restaurants

Slowly but surely, more Americans are once again beginning to dine out at restaurants in some of the states hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

According to data from Nielsen CGA, which surveyed 1,560 consumers in California, Florida, New York and Texas (about 400 in each state) between July 17 – 19, 41% of respondents said they had been out to eat this month.

That’s up slightly from the 36% of people who said they went out for a meal four weeks ago, and the 30% who ventured out between the end of May and early June.

However, just 16% of those polled said they had been out to drink in the last two weeks, and only 15% were planning to grab an adult beverage in the back half of July.

The marginal uptick in people venturing out during the first two weeks of this month coincides with an increasing number of COVID-19 cases in three of the four states. Among the states included in Nielsen’s survey, only New York appears to have flattened the curve since experiencing one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the country during March and April, according data from Johns Hopkins University.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports that Florida and Texas have the second and third most COVID-19 cases in the country, behind California, as of July 29, 2020. However, the CDC separates cases of COVID-19 in New York City and the rest of the state. When combined, New York state has the third-most coronavirus cases in the country.

Nevertheless, California, Florida and Texas have seen sharp increases in the number of new confirmed coronavirus cases in recent weeks. Despite the surge in Florida, nearly half (49%) of those polled by Nielsen said they had been out to eat in early July. Meanwhile, 44% of Texans said they had been out to eat in the two weeks leading up to July 17.

Overall, Nielsen’s data points to a slower on-premise comeback than some bar and restaurant owners would probably like. Even though 79% of customers who visited a bar or restaurant in the first half of the month were satisfied with their overall experience, only 35% said they plan to visit an on-premise venue for a meal in the next two weeks.

As for those who have yet to go back out for a meal or a drink, 57% said they don’t feel safe being in close proximity to strangers, while 45% said it will take longer for them to feel comfortable returning to on-premise venues.

Only 11% of respondents who have not yet returned to the on-premise (747 polled) said they were concerned about their financial situation and trying to save money, which should give bar and restaurant owners some encouragement. However, 23% said they are staying home because the “atmosphere” won’t be the same as it was before the COVID-19 pandemic began, a factor that is mostly uncontrollable.

According to Nielsen, 41% of those continuing to stay home are waiting for a vaccine or a treatment before they return to on-premise dining and drinking, while 30% said they won’t return until “the threat of COVID-19 is completely gone.”

In addition to digging into the current climate for on-premise operators, Nielsen also attempted to gauge how alcohol consumption has changed during the pandemic. Of the 1,560 individuals polled, 58% said they were drinking the same amount of alcohol while 23% said they were drinking more and 19% said they were drinking less.

For its part, Chicago-based market research firm IRI reported Wednesday that off-premise dollar sales of beer were up 17.5% — to $22.8 billion — year-to-date through July 12.

Much of that growth is being driven by the continued success of hard seltzer and other flavored malt beverages, dollar sales of which were up 87% during the period, according to IRI.

Meanwhile, dollar sales of craft beer are up 13.9% year-to-date, according to the firm. However, overall craft volumes are down about 10% midway through the year, according to Brewers Association chief economist Bart Watson.

A more exact figure was hard to come by, Watson wrote in a blog highlighting the results of the trade group’s annual midyear member survey. The types of breweries that participated were not a representative sample of the total industry and estimates from scan data and media reports are less accurate this year because of disruptions caused by the coronavirus, he said.

“Normally I’m fairly confident in these midyear numbers, but there are bigger error bars this year and fewer good options to fill in missing data,” Watson said via twitter. “We’re also seeing rapid shifts in performance based on geography and time, making it more difficult to smooth out the growth numbers.”


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