‘No Time To Die’ Poster Affirms November Release For Daniel Craig’s Final James Bond Movie

We got a new theatrical poster yesterday for MGM and Universal’s No Time to Die, with a promise of a new theatrical trailer tomorrow. Between a new James Bond trailer, a review (finally) of Walt Disney
DIS
’s Mulan and whatever box office-related post I happen to write, tomorrow will feel like the most “normal” workday since late March. And while the poster itself is relatively unexceptional, the key variable is that the film is still listed as opening theatrically in November of this year.

So, despite understandable rumblings about the movie moving again to sometime in 2021, possibly in place of Jurassic World: Dominion should that Universal sequel not finish in time to make its June 11, 2021 release date, it would appear that Daniel Craig’s fifth and finale 007 movie will indeed just in time for the 25th anniversary of GoldenEye. And that makes sense, at least as much as anything does this year, because the James Bond franchise isn’t entirely dependent on domestic box office.

Yes, Skyfall earned $304 million domestic in 2012, but Spectre was only the second (sans inflation) 007 movie to even top $200 million in November of 2015, and it had to be dragged kicking-and-screaming over the finish line to do it. Sam Mendes’ action drama spent 61 days hovering between $199 million and $200 million in domestic grosses. Anyway, prior to that, the biggest domestic grosses for the franchise were the $160 million-$168 million cumes for Die Another Day, Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace.

What changed in 2006 was that the franchise exploded overseas, partially aided by a general overseas marketplace expansion. Die Another Day earned $434 million worldwide in 2002, better than the $333 million-$362 million global cumes of GoldenEye, Tomorrow Never Dies and The World is Not Enough. Casino Royale earned $167 million domestic but $599 million worldwide, while Quantum of Solace (now one of Netflix
NFLX
’s most-watched movies at the moment) earned $585 million two years later. Skyfall took the franchise to heights not seen since Thunderball, with $1.105 billion worldwide.

Even the very, very bad Spectre earned $881 million worldwide alongside The Hunger Games: Mockingjay part II and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Even if conditions for domestic theaters don’t improve between now and November 20, a movie like No Time To Die could subsist on comparatively mediocre domestic numbers and still be a massive global hit. Spectre earned 75% of its global cume outside of North America, while even GoldenEye earned a then-huge 70% of its global cume alongside its $105 million domestic cume.

If, and this is a big “if,” No Time to Die plays as well as Skyfall overseas, it would earn around $804 million without a penny from American theaters. MGM (which is distributing the movie in North America) can optimistically presume that American theaters will be closer to “normal,” including multiplexes opening in California and New York opening over the coming weeks. But No Time To Die can afford to treat American box office as a glorified bonus should it perform overseas (courtesy of Universal) like every 007 movie at least since 1995.

We’ll get that trailer tomorrow, just in time for the domestic debut of Chris Nolan’s Tenet. No Time to Die, starring Daniel Craig, Rami Malek, Lea Seydoux, Naomi Harris, Lashana Lynch, Ana de Armas, Ben Whishaw, Ralph Fiennes, Jeffrey Wright and Christoph Waltz, opens November 12 in the United Kingdom and November 20 (alongside, for now, Pixar’s Soul) in North America.