On Heels Of Accord With Bahrain And UAE, Israel Seeks $8 Billion In U.S. Weapons

On Tuesday, even as the ink was drying on a peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and a peace declaration from Bahrain, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented President Trump with a “wish list” of $8 billion in weapons he would like authorized for purchase by Israel, including stealth jets, bunker-busting bombs and tilt-rotor aircraft.

U.S. electoral politics, Trump, geography and regional rivalries underlie the Israeli leader’s request.

The existence of the “shopping list” was earlier reported by right-leaning Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom, and further detailed in an article by Arie Egozi at Breaking Defense.

Netanyahu hopes to receive authorization for these arm sales before the U.S. election day on November 3. The purchases would be paid by Israel using money in addition to the $38 billion in military aid Israel is set to receive from the United States between 2019 through 2028.

Israel has by far the most capable military in the Middle East, and moreover has increasingly consolidated unofficial cooperation with many Gulf states due to shared hostile relations with Iran. In fact, that cooperation was reportedly spurned by their opposition to the nuclear deal struck by the Obama administration with Iran.

In effect, the new “peace” agreements have normalized Israel’s relationship with Arab countries it was already informally cooperating with, without improving relations with state- and non-state actors Israel has been intermittently combating for many years—most notably Iran, Syria, Gaza-based Hamas and Lebanon-based Hezbollah.

However, the agreements may also give the UAE an opening to purchase advanced F-35 stealth fighters, which hypothetically could threaten Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME), which is ostensibly guaranteed by U.S. law.

Even with Israel’s improved standing in the Arab world, Israeli officials would prefer that its technical edge remain unchallenged and have voiced opposition to such a sale—though realistically, superior tactical and operational proficiency play a larger role in Israeli military dominance, not just technology.

Nonetheless, Egozi writes that his Israeli sources fear that F-35 sales to the UAE (which Trump supports) could trigger a regionals arms race that Israel wants to remain ahead of, given the history of shifting alliances in the region.

Another important factor is uncertainty as to whether Trump will serve a second term in office. Trump has unwaveringly supported Israeli negotiating stances and ceased making any pretense of concern for Palestinian interests.

Though Israel has supporters in the Democratic party as well—nine Congressional Democrats recently signed a letter supporting the QME policy—Netanyahu overtly clashed with the preceding Obama administration. He may fear a Biden administration could place strings on future arms deals by tying them to negotiations with the Palestinians or halting the expansion of Israeli settlements.  

Thus, the Israeli leader may wish to consolidate future arms sales now while he perceives favorable political terrain.

But just what arms is the IDF reportedly shopping for, and why?

Third F-35 Stealth Fighter Squadron

Israel initially signed on to purchase 50 Lockheed F-35 Lightning stealth fighters with which to outfit two squadrons, and was the first country to use the F-35 in combat in 2018. The IDF already has 20 F-35s, and is receiving a unique F-35I Adir model tailored for compatibility with various Israeli avionic and weapon systems.

However, the Israeli government retained the option to order a third squadron of 25 more F-35s—and apparently seeks to exercise that option now.

The IAF is undoubtedly attracted to the F-35 ’s aptitude for penetrating airspace defended by integrated air defense systems, combined with its powerful sensors designed to network with friendly forces.

While the IAF long ago demonstrated it doesn’t strictly need stealth jets to destroy or bypass air defenses in neighboring countries, F-35s would likely play an important role should Israel attempt strikes on nuclear facilities deep inside Iran. Not only are the tactical and logistical challenges greater, but such raids would likely require violating the airspace of multiple countries.

There has long been speculation that Israel may seek to purchase F-35B jump jets for its third squadron. Jump jet capability theoretically could allow continued sorties even should Israeli runways get cratered by bombs or missiles. However, due to the F-35B’s greater cost and inferior performance, the IDF likely would prefer procuring more conventional-takeoff F-35A/F-35Is. 

F-15EX Multi-Role Fighters?

Israel was the first country to fly the U.S. F-15 Eagle fighter into combat, and carved out a remarkable record for the type, shooting down dozens of Syrian fighters in the 1980s without suffering a single loss. Today the IAF retains a mixed fleet of single-seat F-15As and Cs, two-seat F-15B and D fighters, and 25 custom-built F-15I Ra’am strike jets based on the F-15E.

Boeing recently began producing more advanced F-15EX multi-role fighter for the U.S. Air Force. These boast more fuel efficient engines, stronger wings, superior sensors, and greater weapons capacity. Boeing has openly indicated it plans to focus its effort on marketing the F-15EX to India and Israel—the latter in a modified two-seat subvariant known as the F-15IA.

Though not stealthy, the F-15 can fly faster, further and with a heavier bombload than the F-35, and thus could complement it in various scenarios. Israel has reportedly requested information on the cost of procuring 25 new-build F-15IAs as well as upgrading its  F-15Is o the F-15IA standard.

While the Ra’am upgrade appears likely, it’s unclear if Israel can pay for a squadron of new-build F-15IAs and a squadron of F-35s. While Israel Hayom speculates about a possible F-15IA squadron purchase, Egozi does not mention F-15s as being on Netanyahu’s wish list.

Accelerated Delivery of Two KC-46A Pegasus Tankers

In March 2020, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency authorized Israel to order up to eight KC-46A tanker aircraft in a $2.4 billion deal, with delivery due in 2023. (Boeing earlier denied Israel permission to modify 767 airliners into tankers instead.)  Israel now would like Boeing to redirect two KC-46s intended for U.S. Air Force service so it can receive its first Pegasus by 2021 instead.

The IAF currently possesses nine modified Boeing 707 tankers (or KC-707s) received between 1958 and 1982 and four KC-130H Hercules tankers. The aging fleet was briefly grounded in 2019 following an incident in which a KC-130 rolled into a ditch during an engine test.

The 767-based KC-46 is a far more modern design that can refuel multiple aircraft simultaneously, and possess more advanced self-defense capabilities. Those features could be important if Israel clashes with Iran, as its mostly fighters would depend upon refueling from tankers to traverse the hundreds of miles between Israel and Iran.

However, the Pegasus’s service entry has been marred by numerous outrageous defects, most notably flaws in the Remote Viewing System an operator uses to guide the refueling boom to mate with the receiver of a friendly jet. Boeing and the Air Force have devised a fix for the defective viewing system, but will it take several more years before its ready.

Twelve V-22 Osprey Tilt-Rotor Aircraft

While Israel’s airborne and special forces units are famous for their prowess, the IDF faces major logistical challenges deploying them further afield. While helicopters possess unrivaled ability to deposit troops onto constricted terrain, they are sharply limited in speed, range and altitude compared to airplanes.

The Boeing-Bell V-22 Osprey is a tilt-rotor which can switch between helicopter and airplane configurations. That means it can offer the best of both aircraft types—though at steeper price, maintenance requirements and accident rates.

Israel has mulled acquisition of the V-22 off-and-on-again for the past decade. In 2014 sale of six V-22s for $1.13 billion was authorized by the U.S. But as recently as February 2020 it was reported an Osprey buy had been frozen until funding was available.

Apparently, those resources may finally have arrived. Israel has already conveyed to Boeing-Bell desired enhancements to the Osprey’s fuel tanks and avionics package. With V-22s, the IDF could deploy its special forces units with greater flexibility over longer distances.

Replacing Old Apaches For New Ones

The IAF currently operates 48 AH-64 Apaches, a heavily armed and armored attack helicopter. Though the Apache was designed to ravage Soviet tank battalions, Israel controversially pioneered tactics to use its precision-guided anti-tank missiles to assassinate a succession of Hamas leaders.

26 of Israel’s Apaches are comparatively primitive AH-64A-model choppers acquired in 1990, which serve in the 190^th “Magic Touch” squadron at Ramon airbase.

By contrast, the 113 “Hornet” Squadron flies 22 AH-64D Apache Longbow incorporating digital avionics and capability to mount a powerful surface-scanning Longbow radar atop the rotor. This allows the crew to “peak” above trees and hills and launch attacks without exposing the helicopter’s fuselage.

The IDF plans to retire the AH-64As by 2025 according to Egozi. Presumably a replacement could come in the form of Longbows being retired from U.S. military service, or newly-built AH-64E Apache Guardian helicopters which boast uprated engines and flight performance, as well as advanced drone-control and muzzle flash locating technologies.

The Obama administration denied Israeli requests for additional AH-64Ds, reportedly due to concerns that Israeli Apaches had inflicted civilian casualties in the Gaza strip. The Trump administration is unlikely to raise such objections, so Israel may seek to press for the authorization to buy now.

Bunker Busting Bombs and a Satellite

Egozi also writes that an “advanced communication satellite” is on Israel’s wish list, but does not offer further details.

Less obscurely, Netanyahu is seeking a lot more bunker-busting bombs so that the IDF can threaten Iran’s fortified subterranean nuclear and missile facilities.

Towards that end, starting in 2005 Israel began purchasing 5,000-pound GBU-28 laser-guided bombs from the U.S. which can penetrate up to 50 meters of earth and 5 meters of concrete. It has also received many 206-pound GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs IIs (1 meter of concrete + 1 meter earth) and 1,927-lb BLU-109 bombs (1.2-1.8 meters concrete penetration) with JDAM guidance kits.

Israel has also domestically developed its own bunker-busting-capable munitions such as the Rampage missile and SPICE bomb. However, these smaller munitions may be ineffective versus very heavily fortified Iranian facilities.

Provisioning Israel with more bunker busters is not universally supported by U.S. officials for fear it might embolden Israel to unilaterally attack Iran. Israeli defense officials likewise are divided in opinion as to whether the U.S. would provide Israel the necessary munitions should the IDF unilaterally initiate a preemptive attack.

Thus, Netanyahu apparently seeks to acquire more bombs now when he’s unlikely to face qualms from the U.S. executive branch.