Packers Vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Betting Line, Picks, Predictions For NFC Championship Game 2021

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are set to meet Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon in the 2021 NFC Championship Game. It is a thrilling matchup that will pit two of football’s all-time great quarterbacks against one another at the game’s most historic venue, a can’t-miss affair that will determine one of the two participants in Super Bowl LV.

Oddsmakers believe that the Packers have an edge in this contest, installing the home side as a 3.5-point favorite. That line has shifted slightly in recent days after opening with Green Bay laying four to Tampa in the immediate wake of the Divisional Round results. Although the spread has moved in favor of the Bucs, the public has been overwhelmingly supporting the Packers since the NFC Championship first went up on the board and it does not appear that these trends will be changing before the game kicks off on Sunday.

As of Saturday morning, 55% of all wagers and 69% of money bet against the spread is on Green Bay to cover, which indicates that the professional bettors are making a contrarian play on the point spread and Vegas is reacting to those sharp Tampa bets. The 2021 NFC Championship Game total has remained where it started at 51.5 points, although that number is a bit polarizing to the public, evidenced by 77% of tickets (total number of bets) taking the over, but only 55% of the handle (total amount money wagered) on that side.

Will the Packers reach their first Super Bowl in a decade by eliminating a star-studded Bucs squad on Sunday, or will Tampa win its third consecutive road playoff contest to get back to the big game after an 18-year hiatus? Pro handicapper Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com has a take on the matchup that you will not want to miss. Before seeing which team the Vegas expert predicts will cover the spread and who he is picking to advance to Super Bowl LV, take a look at the full viewing guide for the 2021 NFC Championship Game. It includes the schedule, start time, TV channel, live stream site, updated odds and more for the Packers vs. Buccaneers battle.

NFC Championship Game 2021 Schedule And Viewing Guide

• Matchup: No. 1 Green Bay Packers vs No. 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Date: Sunday, January 24
• Start Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox
• Live Stream: Fox Sports GO
• Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

NFC Championship Game 2021 Odds

• Point spread: Green Bay -3.5
• Total: over-under 51.5 points
• Moneyline: Green Bay -190, Tampa Bay +160

NFC Championship Game 2021 Preview And Prediction

This is a rematch of a 2020 regular season game, which was played in Tampa back in Week 6 and resulted in a surprising 38-10 victory for the Bucs. Tampa leaned heavily on its rushing attack in the contest, with lead back Ronald Jones II totaling up 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23 totes. The defense was also instrumental in the blowout win, picking off Aaron Rodgers—the probable league MVP—twice and limiting him to just 160 yards and no touchdowns on 16-of-35 passing attempts. Tampa’s vaunted front clamped down on Aaron Jones, Green Bay’s top rusher, holding him to a mere 15 yards on 10 carries, although he did find the end zone for the lone Packers touchdown of the contest.

Matt Schneidman tweeted a clip of Rodgers predicting that his Packers would meet Brady and the Bucs again after their Week 6 clash:

Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur isn’t putting much stock in those past results, however, claiming that his squad has improved significantly in the three months since that crushing defeat at Raymond James Stadium (via AP.org):

“I think our team has come a long way from that day, but everything’s just words at this point. You’ve got to go out there and you’ve got to have a great week of preparation and you’ve got to go earn it on the field. So that’ll be our mindset and that’s how we’ll approach it. What’s happened in the past at this point, it really doesn’t matter. It’s about what we do moving forward.”

Although he’s been Green Bay’s No. 1 quarterback since 2008 and led his squad to nine trips to the postseason prior to the 2021 NFL Playoffs, the Packers have never hosted an NFC Championship Game at Lambeau Field with Rodgers as their starter until now. Because of the venue, weather could play a role in how both sides approach their scripting for the contest. Conditions in eastern Wisconsin are expected to be somewhat chilly—with temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow on the forecast—but nothing close to the three previous Super Bowl-qualifiers hosted at Lambeau Field. The 1967 NFL Championship is still remembered for being the coldest game in league history, a contest known as the “Ice Bowl” that kicked off at -13 and reached close to -40 with wind chill factored in. The most recent NFC Championship held at Lambeau Field back in 2008 also reached the negatives at kickoff, while the warmest conference title game at the stadium occurred in 1997, which was a brisk five degrees at its start time.

Although the Buccaneers are a warm weather team, quarterback Tom Brady forged a Hall of Fame legacy by winning cold weather games during his two decades under center in New England. His Patriots went 25-4 in contests that were played in temperatures of 29 degrees or cooler, with only one of those losses coming in the postseason. The Bucs haven’t had any experience playing in sub-freezing games this season, which could play a role in how Sunday’s matchup turns out, especially against an opponent well-versed in the forecasted conditions of the 2021 NFC Championship Game. The Packers have shown a propensity to succeed in the cold with Rodgers at the helm, as the quarterback has won 87% of contests that kicked off with below freezing temperatures.

Green Bay was a consistently strong bet during the 2020 NFL season, going 10-6 against the spread—tying them for the second-best cover percentage in football—before starting the playoffs by beating the number with a convincing win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round. The Bucs were also profitable with a 9-7 ATS mark during the regular season, but started the 2021 NFL Playoffs by failing to cover in the Wild Card round as a favorite against Washington. Tampa cashed tickets with an outright win and cover as an underdog last week against the New Orleans Saints, continuing the team’s trend of success as a ‘dog this year. That Divisional Round cover was the third in four games in which the Bucs were getting points this season, a 75% cover rate that ranks them behind just three teams during the 2020 campaign. The Packers represent Tampa’s toughest challenge yet however, especially at Lambeau Field where Green Bay is 8-1 SU on the year. The Buccaneers have traveled well though, going 8-2 SU across their 10 road trips this season.

It would hardly be surprising to see the Packers get off to another hot start in the NFC Championship Game, as they jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in their regular season matchup with Tampa and no team has scored more consistently on their opening drives than Green Bay has in 2020. Despite facing a deficit quickly, the Bucs were able to rally back in that Week 6 game and eventually pulled away after capitalizing on a pair of rare Rodgers turnovers. It won’t be easy to force the projected MVP into that many errors again with a Super Bowl berth on the line, as Rodgers has been responsible for just 12 total postseason interceptions and has thrown multiple picks just three times in 20 career playoff games. Green Bay carved up the Rams and their No. 1-ranked defense from the start last week and never relinquished that lead largely thanks to mistake-free football, securing a “W” that moved the team to 11-0 SU in turnover-free games this season.

Tampa’s chances of winning the NFC Championship Game go up drastically if the defense can snare an interception or recover a fumble. The Packers were only responsible for an NFL-best 11 giveaways during the 2020 NFL season, but went a mediocre 3-3 in games in which they turned the ball over one or more times. If any defense can force this Green Bay offense into mistakes, it would be this Tampa unit that is coming off a four-takeaway performance in New Orleans, including a trio of uncharacteristic interceptions from Saints quarterback Drew Brees. Brees had only thrown six picks across 390 passing attempts in 12 regular season starts, a 1.5% interception rate that ranked only slightly behind Rodgers’ NFL-best 1% rate—five interceptions on 526 throws in 16 starts—in 2020. The Bucs were also one of only two teams that held Rodgers to less than 200 yards passing during the regular season and the QB’s 45.7% completion rate against them was a whopping 14.3% lower than his second-worst outing this year.

The Bucs have plenty of reasons to be brimming with confidence as they head into Lambeau Field for the 2021 NFC Championship Game, many of which stem from their previous successes against Green Bay. Tampa is firing on all cylinders on both sides of the football right now and have the capabilities to not only keep the contest close, but also outright win it. The 3.5-point spread is a great bet for insurance, but the moneyline also represents a strong value at its current +160 odds. That would pay out $1.60 for each $1 risked on an upset, a nice payout for backers who believe Tampa will be the better side on Sunday. Price suggests taking the points in case things come down to the wire—and they very well could—and the game is decided by a last-second score. Considering how well this Bucs squad matches up with Green Bay, having those 3.5 points is the best value play on the board in the conference championships.

Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.5

Prediction: Buccaneers 28 – Packers 27