Patriots At Rams Picks: Thursday Night Football Week 14 Odds And Predictions Against The Spread

After a short hiatus due to scheduling adjustments, Thursday Night Football is back with the New England Patriots traveling to take on the Los Angeles Rams to kick off Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season. This intraconference matchup is rife with postseason implications, with New England looking to stay alive in the hunt for a berth in the AFC and the Rams jostling for a better seed in the NFC portion of the NFL Playoff bracket. The 6-6 Pats, who just clawed back to .500 with back-to-back wins, can hardly afford to drop another game for the rest of the campaign if they are going to keep their 11-year streak of postseason appearances alive. LA is looking to get back in the playoffs after missing out last year, suffering through a dreaded Super Bowl hangover after coming up short against the Patriots in Super Bowl LII. The club is well-positioned to make a run again this season, currently sitting atop the NFC West with an 8-4 record and holding the No. 3 seed in the conference with a relatively easier slate of games in front of them in comparison to the two programs—New Orleans and Green Bay—ahead in the standings.

Oddsmakers believe the Rams have an edge on Thursday Night Football, opening them as a six-point favorite over the Patriots. Sharp action has forced that line down to 4.5 at most shops, a figure the public is relatively split on. As of Thursday afternoon, 52% of all bets against the spread have been on New England, but the bigger money has been siding with the Rams, who have drawn 63% of the handle. The Week 14 opener has also seen its total shift a bit since it first went up on the board at 45.5 points, dropping down to 44 as the game’s 8:20 p.m. kickoff draws closer. The public surprisingly likes the under in this primetime affair—the over is generally a more popular play in nationally televised contests—which is a testament to the strength of both defenses involved. 53% of tickets written and 66% of the cash wagered on the total are on the under, a big reason—along with the public perception of these defenses—that shops are lowering the over/under on this game.

Los Angeles ranks No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 291.3 yards per game on average. LA’s scoring defense is also one of the better units in the league, conceding just 20.3 points to the opposition, the fifth-best mark in football. The Patriots have not been as effective on that side of the ball, but they are certainly no slouches, ranking No. 12 in total (344.6 YPG) and No. 7 in scoring (21.7 PPG) defense this year. The area in which the Rams have a clear edge is offense, in particular their passing attack. LA is averaging an impressive 395.3 offensive yards per game, with 272.9 of those coming through the air, figures that rank No. 3 and No. 4 in the NFL respectively. The Patriots have been far less prolific in this department, mustering an average of just 342.3 total yards and 191.4 passing yards per game, the latter ranking ahead of just two other clubs this year. New England has run the ball well, however, with their 150.9 rushing yards per game average serving as the league’s third-best ground game and decently ahead of their upcoming opponent’s 124.2 rushing yards per game.

Will the Patriots find a way to keep their postseason dreams alive with a third consecutive victory, or will the Rams further their quest to secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the upcoming NFL Playoffs with a home win tonight? Those looking for answers have come to the right place, as pro handicapper Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com has a Thursday Night Football pick you will not want to miss. Before seeing which side the Vegas expert has a lean on in this matchup, take a peek at the complete Week 14 schedule, start times, TV info and updated odds for every game. You can also find betting trends, tweets, quotes and more to get ready for this evening’s Rams-Patriots contest.

2020 NFL Week 14 Schedule And Odds

Matchup (Odds), Time ET (Network)

Thursday, December 10

• New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5), 8:20 p.m. (Fox/NFL Network)

Sunday, December 13

• Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7), 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
• Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5), 1:00 p.m. (Fox)
• Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (+1.5), 1:00 p.m. (Fox)
• Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (+1), 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
• Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-3.5), 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
• Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5), 1:00 p.m. (Fox)
• Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (+7), 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
• Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (+3), 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
• New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5), 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
• Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+7.5), 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
• Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5), 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
• New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5), 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
• Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (-3), 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
• Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-1.5), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Monday, December 14

• Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+2.5), 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

New England Patriots (6-6) At Los Angeles Rams (8-4)

Thursday Night Football Week 14 Viewing Guide

Date: Thursday, December 10

Kickoff Start Time: 8:20 p.m. ET

TV: Fox, NFL Network

Live Stream: Fox Sports GO, Amazon Prime Video

Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Spread: Rams -4.5

Total: Over/Under 44 Points

Moneyline: Patriots +185, Rams -215

The moneyline odds translate to LA having a 68.25% implied probability of winning, an outcome that bettors would have to risk $2.15 to win $1 on. New England backers would return $1.85 for each $1 risked if an upset were to occur, a result that oddsmakers have implied a 35.1% probability of happening.

Rams-Patriots Betting Trends

The Patriots hold a 9-5 straight-up advantage across 14 all-time matchups with the Rams, a run that includes six consecutive victories—and two Super Bowl championships—since February 2002. LA’s last win in this series came during the 2001 regular season, when the then-St. Louis Rams beat New England 24-17 before coming up short in the rematch with the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the line a few months later.

New England has covered in six of the seven matchups against this foe over the last 20 years. The Pats lone ATS loss against the Rams in that span came when they won 23-16 as nine-point home favorites in 2008.

Neither team has been exceptional to bet on during the 2020 NFL season, but the Rams have been slightly profitable this year with a 7-5 against the spread record compared to the Patriots at 6-6 ATS.

Both the Rams and Patriots are 8-4 towards the under this year. The Giants are the only team in the NFL that has had a higher percentage of their contests land UNDER the total (3-9) than these two.

Both teams are relatively hot heading into Week 14, with New England straight-up winning four of its last five and covering in three of those games. Los Angeles has won and covered in three of its last four, but did lose two weeks ago against the NFC West rival 49ers as five-point favorites.

The Patriots have been the most profitable team to back as an underdog since 2003, going 28-15-2 ATS—a 65.1% cover rate—in the 45 games in which they were getting points. The Rams have covered less than half the time as favorites in that same span, compiling a 59-62-4 ATS record as chalk. LA is 5-4 ATS when laying points and 3-2 ATS as a home favorite this season, while New England is 4-2 ATS as an underdog and 2-2 as a road ‘dog in 2020.

The Rams have yet to win a non-conference game this year, going 0-2 SU and ATS against AFC opponents. The Pats haven’t fared much better against the NFC with a 1-2 SU and ATS record in intraconference matchups.

Thursday Night Football Week 14 Media

Boston Sports Info found that the Patriots are 9-2 SU on the road against NFC West opponents since Bill Belichick became the head coach of the organization:

Belichick spoke to the media this week about the difficulty of facing an LA team his Patriots aren’t familiar with that has also made a few personnel changes since the last head-to-head clash in Super Bowl LII (via WPRI.com):

“It’s always a little bit more challenging with a team you don’t know as well, but I mean, it’s the same for them, so I don’t think there’s any advantage there. But, it’s different than playing a division team that you know better. There’s some carryover offensively from the Rams. Defensively, they’ve changed coordinators from Wade [Phillips] to [Brandon] Staley and changed special teams coordinators from [John] Fassel to [John] Bonamego. So, I’d say there’s some pretty significant changes there in two of the phases. Offensively, it’s a lot of the core things that we saw a couple years ago, but Sean’s [McVay] broadened the offense. He’s brought in some different things and of course seeing [Cooper] Kupp in this game. We didn’t see him two years ago. He certainly makes a big difference. So, there’s some similarities, but plenty of differences, as well.”

Scott Scroggins noted that New England quarterback Cam Newton is leading the NFL in touchdown rate per rushing attempt and has the most rushing scores since the start of the 2011 season:

PFF Fantasy Football revealed that Rams signal-caller Jared Goff is the league’s leading passer with a clean pocket this year, so protecting the QB will be a major key to victory for LA tonight:

theScore pointed out that LA has never lost a game in which it was leading at the half since head coach Sean McVay was hired in 2017, a remarkable 33-0 run and the only team to have not blown a halftime lead in that span:

McVay discussed the differences between preparing for the Patriots on a short week of rest compared to having two weeks to get ready for this same foe in the Super Bowl (via USAToday.com):

“It’ll be the same things. It’ll just be an accelerated process. The difference between what you can normally do in a typical week, as opposed to a Thursday game is a real big emphasis above-the-neck. Obviously, this is a team that really stresses you and challenges you in all three phases. I have tremendous respect for the ability for them to really play complementary football, shift their identity to mold and to figure out how they want to try to win the football game. You’ve really seen that reflected each of the last couple of weeks with the way they played the Cardinals, with the way that they played the Chargers yesterday. It was a good win by our team yesterday, but it’s about being able to move on and kind of hit the reset button and have a great week of preparation. And a lot of that will be mentally and that’ll be the big thing for us.”

PFF showed that Rams star defensive lineman Aaron Donald is leading the league in pressures this season and has seven more than the next closest defender:

Week 14 Thursday Night Football Pro Predictions

Pick: Patriots +4.5

Prediction: Patriots 21 – Rams 20