Poll: 88% Of Trump Supporters Appear To Falsely Believe Biden Didn’t Legitimately Win

Topline

An overwhelming majority of President Donald Trump’s supporters believe the presidential race was plagued with fraud and say Trump shouldn’t concede to President-elect Joe Biden, according to a worrying new poll that shows the persuasive power of Trump’s false conspiracy theories — though about half of his voters still expect a peaceful transfer of power.

Key Facts

Big Number

80%. That’s the percentage of Trump voters who have little to no confidence the election was held fairly, compared to just 1% of Biden voters. 

Crucial Quote

“The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history,” the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, a federal agency whose director was abruptly fired by Trump on Tuesday, wrote in a statement last week. “There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.”

Key Background

In the leadup to Election Day, Trump repeatedly threatened to reject the outcome of the election if he is displeased with the results. Hours after the polls closed, Trump fulfilled this promise. His campaign has launched an unprecedented legal blitz aimed at overturning the results in multiple states, an effort that has largely fallen flat as judges — perturbed by a total lack of evidence — throw out his lawsuits at a rapid clip. But despite the campaign’s legal defeats, Trump has continued promoting a string of increasingly outlandish vote-rigging conspiracy theories, and some fringe far-right media outlets have gained traction by promoting them. At least temporarily, this strategy of casting doubt on the election seems to have won over many Trump supporters, eroding their faith in the electoral process.

Surprising Fact

In an Ipsos/Reuters poll from last week, 60% of Republicans said Biden won the race. It’s unclear whether this shift is due to rapidly changing public opinion, methodological differences, or differently worded questions.

Tangent

In 2000, after Florida’s Department of State certified George W. Bush as the winner, 83% of Al Gore’s voters weren’t confident in the accuracy or fairness of those results, according to a CBS News poll conducted before the Supreme Court upheld the state’s decision.

What To Watch For

This week, Wisconsin will begin a partial recount and Georgia will finish a full recount. 62% of Trump voters say recounts will give them more confidence in the election’s outcome, though the president has attacked Georgia’s process and made far-fetched promises about Wisconsin, so the impact of these recounts on public opinion remains to be seen.

Further Reading

Only a quarter of Republicans believe Donald Trump should concede (The Economist)