Reading The Electoral Map: Do All Roads Lead To Reading, PA?

So how will the presidential election play out? Let’s look at a few scenarios.

But first, one scenario that seems likely: Donald Trump once again losing the popular vote.

Trump finished 2.868 million votes behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 (here are the official numbers). Even with less of a third-party presence in this year’s contest (the Green and Libertarian candidates combined for nearly six million votes in 2016), Trump probably doesn’t close that gap. Blame California: in 2016, Trump lost the Golden State by a shade under 4.27 million votes. Look for a wider margin given Trump’s poor standing in America’s most populous state and a larger pool of voters – California having 2.635 million more registered voters than in 2016, including nearly 1.45 additional registered Democrats to just 286,000 more registered Republicans.

But in the American republic, it’s the parts of the sum that matter – which candidate can stitch together enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.

In 2016, Trump carried 30 states (and Maine’s 2^nd Congressional District, which is governed by the statewide sum) totaling 306 electoral votes to Mrs. Clinton’s 20 states (and the District of Columbia) and 232 electoral votes (in terms of electoral votes, the best and worst performances by a Republican and a Democrat since 1988).

So how to map out 2020’s results? I’ll start with the following baseline (I recommend Taegan Goddard’s interactive map if you want to play along):

I’m forecasting 20 states likely in Trump’s possession, based on current polls, recent presidential history and the campaign not sending the ticket their way: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (minus that state’s 2^nd Congressional District) North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. 

And I’m forecasting 19 states likely for Joe Biden: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (with the exception of the state’s 2^nd CD), Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington (and, of course, D.C.).

That leaves 11 states up for grabs: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin.

The electoral-vote count: Biden 222, Trump 125, undecided 191.

This suggests the high-water mark for both candidates, if all the battleground states break either way: Biden 413 (no Democrat has topped 400 electoral votes since FDR), Trump 316.

Now, let’s do a little adjusting for . . . well, reality.

Democrats think they have a shot at Georgia and Texas (the former last went Democratic in 1992; Texas last turned blue in 1976). For argument’s sake, let’s posit that both end up going for Trump (if Texas really is in play, why is neither campaign working it very hard?). Republicans think they have a shot at Minnesota, which last turned red in 1972 (yes, both candidates were there last week, but this scenario doesn’t envision a “wave” election of either color).

The adjusted electoral-vote tally: Biden 232, Trump 179 , undecided 127.

So what to do with the nine remaining states?

I’m going to put Michigan and Wisconsin in Biden’s column. Unlike Clinton in 2016, Biden’s campaign hasn’t ignored Wisconsin (polls there have the Democrat leading anywhere from four points to double digits); Michigan polls consistently show a solid Biden lead.

And I’m going to give Trump Ohio, North Carolina . . . and Florida.

That latter state is the first domino to tumble on Tuesday night, but I’m looking at registration numbers – North Carolina has seen a net gain of nearly 150,000 GOP registrations this year compared with 96,000 for Democrats; in Florida, the Democrats’ edge in registered voters has fallen from 658,000 in 2008 and 327,000 in 2016 to 134,000 at present. And I’m factoring in the potential for a Democratic underperformance in voter-rich Dade County (in early voting there, Republicans have been turning out at a higher rate).

Updating the electoral-vote totals: Biden 258, Trump 241, undecided 39.

That takes us down to Arizona, Iowa, Pennsylvania and the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska that aren’t governed by statewide totals.

I’m going to give Trump Arizona – reluctantly so as, while the polls suggest a tightening race, it’s Democrats who’ve gained in registration (for the first time since the November 2010 election, Democrats are the second-most popular group in the state). And I’ll put Iowa in the Trump column now that the very predictive Des Moines Register Iowa poll has the President leading Biden by seven points – the same advantage the survey gave Trump going into the final weekend in 2016 (Trump carried the Hawkeye State by over 10 points).

The new tally: Biden 258, Trump 258, undecided 22 (Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes and the two single-vote congressional districts).

This is both an ideal scenario, if you like cliffhangers, as well as America’s hell scenario as Pennsylvania doesn’t start counting mail-in ballots until the morning Election Day at earliest. Moreover, at least seven of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties have said they won’t count mail-in ballots until after Election Day (Trump carried six of the seven counties, home to about 550,000 registered voters, in 2016). The state’s elected leaders have said they expect a majority of Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballots to be tallied by the week’s end – barring a Supreme Court intervention, ballots received up to three days after the election will be counted.

There is one more scenario that’s more hellish – and it involves the two congressional districts I haven’t assigned, plus shifting one state.

Let’s start by giving Pennsylvania to Trump. He now has 278 electoral votes.

But let’s flip Arizona from red to blue, handing those 11 electoral votes to Biden.

The new tally: Biden 269, Trump 267, with the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska hanging in the balance. If Biden wins either won, it’s game over. If Trump wins both, which he did in 2016, then it’s 269-all in the electoral count and on to the U.S. House of Representatives deciding matters.

Yikes.

I can see Trump shocking the world, as he did four years ago, and walking away with 279 electoral votes and a second term (losing only Michigan and Wisconsin, but retaining the remainder of his 2016 coalition).

And I can see Biden skating by with 278 electoral votes (by flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) or expanding the count closer to 340 (by also flipping Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, plus the Nebraska congressional district and maybe Maine’s too).

Or, your guess is as good as mine (and I was quite wrong in 2016, guessing that Trump would max out at 260 electoral votes).

Just so we have closure at some point this week.

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