Regular Fan Attendance For MLB Will Come With Whimper, Not A Roar

For the first time in 2020, there was a significant roar from the crowd during a Major League Baseball game. As the winner-take-all Game 7 of the National League Championship Series between the Dodgers and Braves see-sawed back-and-forth, there seemed a sense that, yes, the feel of life before the pandemic might have returned to the National Pastime.

It was a partial illusion with a small amount of crowd noise pumped into Globe Life Field, normally the home of the Texas Rangers, but for 2020 the neutral site location for the NLCS and the World Series.

Attendance for the game was just 10,920 – a fraction of the ballpark’s 40,300 capacity – but that was by design. Major League Baseball and the Rangers are taking a calculated risk at allowing fans to return to witness the playoffs after working with state and local health officials.

That risk could be high, even with the plans that the league put in place that includes “pods” of four fans socially distanced at least six-feet apart from each other; seats no closer than 20-feet from the players; and an inability to break “pods” up for sale. For suites, a total of 950 per game are being allowed, a capacity of between 25%-31% of their standard capacity.

The plan calls for fans to wear masks at all times except when eating or drinking concessions, but views during broadcasts showed many not adhering to the requirement. As is always the case, protocols are only as strong as the people that need to adhere to them.

If baseball is lucky, the playoffs will not be a super-spreader event. It’s too soon to tell at this point and would likely not be known until after the World Series has ended. Should some infections spread from the games, it would be not only a PR nightmare but have MLB at the center of potential deaths due to COVID-19.

Speaking with several baseball executives, what MLB is doing is feeling out how the return of fans will look like for 2021. With coronavirus cases on the rise and the expectation of a third wave during the fall and winter months, the return of fans will almost assuredly come with a whimper, not a roar with the model of a small percentage of ballpark capacity being allowed and only in states and markets that will allow for it in 2021.

As those around the league have said, at some point the league needs to return with fans in the stands. It’s whether it can be done safely and when that is the question. The fans returning during the 2020 NLCS and World Series in Arlington, TX will be part of the measure as to whether the league can pull it off.

To that, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease expert has said that it can be possible if the conditions are right.

“Sometimes when you project, people take it out of context,’’ Fauci said during an interview earlier in the summer with MASNsports.com. “But if a level of infection in a city is really low, then you can have people in the stands. You can’t fill it up 100 percent. You can do it where you can space out the fans. It’s at least open for consideration.’‘

That model mirrors what the league is planning.

But beyond what the league is planning, even if they wanted to pack the house, fans are not confident gathering together given the high infection rate of the novel coronavirus.

A global survey by consulting firm Altman Solon released on Tuesday shows that just 6% of sports fans in the U.S. would return if stadiums opened before a successful vaccine for COVID-19 was available. Even more concerning for sports leagues, even after a vaccine is available, just 17% of fans would return.

Based upon that, MLB’s plans for a low percentage of fans being allowed to resume at games may provide not just safety, but a reality that interest in returning to events with a considerable number of people is something many in society are just not ready for.

From the business of baseball perspective, the return of fans may create an economic disparity between the clubs. As we’ve already seen, the approach to “opening up” can be conducted more aggressively or more conservatively depending on everything from the trends in cases and deaths, and the politics involved. Some clubs will be allowed to have fans. Some, may not. Those clubs that are in states erring on the side of safety would see some or all of their season without fans, where others would see it allowed, even if a fraction of normal. That gate revenue disparity could create problems for Commissioner Manfred as the potential for some form of revenue-sharing of gate revenues could surface.

The bottom line is, MLB will plan some way out of the woods that is the pandemic. It will undoubtedly be a way where a limited number of fans could return based upon feedback from health officials. It will take into account that while fans would love to return to sporting events as it was prior to the pandemic, a large percentage don’t feel safe enough yet to do so. For baseball, the slow walk to normal attendance levels will go all the way through the 2021 season. For Commissioner Manfred, and the country, the hope it will not be much longer.