Should The Utah Jazz Extend Rudy Gobert With A Supermax In 2020?

With two Defensive Player of the Year wins and an All-NBA nod to boot, Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert is eligible for one of the biggest individual prizes in sports: the NBA “supermax” contract.

According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, such a deal for Gobert would pay him $247.3 million over five seasons.

That’s an awful lot of money, especially for a big man who’ll be in his age-33 season by the time the deal is set to expire. Things are further complicated in this particular situation by a continued evolution toward positionless basketball and the fact that the annual salary on a supermax escalates.

By the end of the contract, most teams might be fielding lineups with five players who can dribble, pass and shoot. Right now, Gobert is undoubtedly one of the most impactful defensive players in the game, but lineups like that can cause him some trouble.

It’s not that Gobert is bad at individually covering playmakers on the perimeter. On the contrary. He’s actually better in that regard than most realize.

“Per tracking data via a source, Rudy Gobert has been switched onto a guard in isolation on 117 possessions since the start of 18-19,” Forbes’ Ben Dowsett tweeted. “Opponents have scored 0.748 points per chance, one of the 5 lowest figures among volume minute centers in the NBA.”

The bigger problem is that forcing Gobert to defend on the perimeter takes him away from where he’s most effective: the paint. When that’s clear, Utah’s defense becomes significantly less imposing.

And if the team’s roster construction remains relatively similar going forward, Gobert may not be able to provide the amount of offensive value he’s capable of providing, either.

Over the course of 2019-20, Gobert is taking just 7.7 field-goal attempts per 75 possessions when he’s on the floor with Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. That’s down significantly from the 9.9 per 75 that he attempted last season.

On Feb. 22, when the Jazz faced the micro-ball Houston Rockets, Gobert went just 3-of-7 from the field in 34 minutes.

If Utah is going to lean into positionless basketball—with multiple playmakers, wings and shooters on the floor at the same time—can it really justify a quarter of a billion dollars for a player who may not be deployed in the ideal fashion on either end of the floor?

The statistical argument is clear. As long as Gobert has been a starter for the Jazz, they’ve had a stalwart defense. He permanently entered the starting lineup on Feb. 20, 2015. Over the rest of that season, Utah allowed 97.6 points per 100 possession, a mark that ranked No. 1 (by far) over that span. Over the five seasons from then to now, the Jazz have the top defense in the NBA.

Gobert has never had a negative net rating swing. In other words, Utah’s net points per 100 possessions has been better with him on the floor in each and every season he’s played. His career swing of plus-6.7 is better than James Harden’s 6.2 over the same span.

Among players with at least 5,000 career minutes, Gobert ranks 45th in box plus/minus and 13th in win shares per 48 minutes (18th and sixth among active players with 5,000-plus minutes).

When the opposition has a more traditional center who doesn’t pull Gobert away from the basket, he’s a dominant force on defense. Wings and guards routinely U-turn and head back to the perimeter upon seeing him. When he’s actually getting the ball, as he does when he shares the floor with Joe Ingles, he’s a weapon on offense too.

But these numbers signify what Gobert has done, not what he will do with the Jazz going forward.

And this isn’t even necessarily directed at a possible individual decline from Gobert. If the Jazz are going to play under a philosophy that minimizes his offensive impact, while the rest of the league trends toward a style that might neutralize him on defense, the supermax becomes difficult to wrap your head around.

Of course, the nature of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement and salary cap may force Utah’s hand. If the Jazz let him walk, what are the chances they fill that void with someone who’s demonstrated his level of impact play? What if the game trends back toward the big man? These stylistic shifts are fluid.

One thing is for sure, this isn’t a no-brainer either way. If forced to choose, I’d probably land on the “go for it” side of this equation. See if you can force teams to adjust to you, rather than the other way around. And, for crying out loud, pass the big man the ball when no one is near him at the rim.

As scary a prospect as a supermax salary is on any roster, the alternative in this particular situation might be worse.

Gobert has been this team’s identity for half a decade. It’s become a perennial 50-game winner with an always respectable-to-great defense. Superstars don’t come along often, especially for small-market franchises. The Jazz (probably) shouldn’t let theirs go.