Some Reasons To Be Thankful This Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is here! Unfortunately, a time traditionally spent surrounded by family, friends, and lots of turkey is mired by the continuing pandemic. The recent increase in cases has caused many people to curtail their travel plans and some state and local governments are reimposing restrictions not seen since the spring. But Thanksgiving is a time to be thankful, not dwell on the negatives, and there are reasons to be optimistic as we close out 2020.

A recent study shows that the major media outlets in the U.S. have been especially negative about Covid-19. The study, authored by researchers at Dartmouth College and Brown University, analyzes the tone of Covid-19 related news articles written since the start of 2020. They find that U.S. stories about Covid-19 are almost universally negative in tone regardless of trends in cases or the political preferences of readers:

“91% of stories by U.S. major media outlets are negative in tone versus 54% for non-U.S. major sources and 65% for scientific journals. The negativity of the U.S. major media is notable even in areas with positive scientific developments including school re-openings and vaccine trials. Media negativity is unresponsive to changing trends in new COVID-19 cases or the political leanings of the audience. U.S. major media readers strongly prefer negative stories about COVID-19, and negative stories in general. Stories of increasing COVID-19 cases outnumber stories of decreasing cases by a factor of 5.5 even during periods when new cases are declining.”

In an effort to balance this out, here are a few positive trends. First, the labor market continues to recover. The prime-age (age 25 – 54) employment rate increased to 76% in October (most recent data), up from 75% in September and the 40 year low of 70% in April. This is the same rate as in December of 2013 and only two percentage points off the 2012 – 2019 average of 78%.

The overall unemployment rate is down to 6.9% from its April high of 14.7%. And while we are a long way from the 40 year low of 3.5% in February, the unemployment rate was 6.9% as recently as November of 2013, more than four years into the last economic recovery. These two measures of the labor market are not the only ones that matter, but they are both trending in the right direction and that’s good news.

At a more granular level, in some states the unemployment rate is already lower than the 2012 – 2019 national average of 5.2%. As shown below, Nebraska, Utah, New Hampshire, and Minnesota are among the states with unemployment rates below 5.2% as of October according to BLS data.

Tourism-dependent economies like Nevada and Hawaii are not doing as well, but recent vaccine developments should help those states’ recoveries going forward while also boosting the national economy. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recently said that a vaccine may be ready for distribution by next month. Doses will initially be limited to those at highest risk, but it seems we are well on our way to having an effective vaccine that will prevent a lot of illnesses and deaths. Jonathan Ellen, an epidemiologist and public health expert, recently echoed this optimism:

“Early evidence that two vaccines offer high-level protection from Covid and that production has begun on both, and the likelihood that there might be increased acceptance of the vaccine—all raise hopes that we may see a slow and steady reduction in cases and their complications over the next nine months. If it comes to pass, then we might have a more normal Thanksgiving next year.”

In other good news, the FDA recently granted emergency use authorization to an at-home diagnostic test for Covid-19. Developed by Lucira Health, the test lets people collect their own sample via a nasal swab and get results back in 30 minutes.

Unfortunately, the test is not widely available yet because the FDA is requiring a prescription to purchase one. While the FDA’s decision to require a prescription is discouraging, the development of an at-home test that provides relatively quick results is a welcome one. This test should help America ramp up testing and give people the information they need to prevent unknowingly spreading the virus.

Covid-19 is messing up a lot of people’s Thanksgivings, but there is still much to be thankful for: The labor market is recovering, a vaccine is on the way, and there has been a breakthrough in testing. This has been a turbulent year to say the least, but as we approach its end things are looking up.