Stashed Pick Marcos Louzada Silva Could Be Steal Of 2019 Draft For New Orleans Pelicans, After Zion Williamson

The New Orleans Pelicans selected Zion Williamson as the first overall pick in last year’s NBA draft. The fact the team had the opportunity to select the foundational star was mostly up to lottery luck. Through some shrewd moves, the Pelicans wound up with three more players in the 2019 draft class alongside Williamson. Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker logged minutes for the Pelicans this season, but Marcos Louzada ‘Didi’ Silva might have been the steal of the draft for the team, especially when looking forward to the next couple of seasons.

Well, except for Zion. Williamson is again an outlier. Once in a generation talents like his do not fit normal exercises, mathematical or otherwise. Guys like Williamson, LeBron James, and Luka Doncic are also grossly underpaid while on their rookie deals.

Judging the value of the rest of the Pelicans’ 2019 Draft is a bit easier, especially when looking at the value of NBA draft picks to the team going forward. Along with the four selections in the 2019 NBA Draft, the New Orleans Pelicans have almost a dozen more to follow in the next five years. There just is not enough room on the roster for all of those picks. Deciding which to keep and which to trade will keep Trajan Langdon and David Griffin busy during this unfortunate halt to the season. Anything that looks like a ‘young veterans’ strategy used to placate Anthony Davis will be thoroughly scrutinized by the fanbase.

Judging Value: Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker versus Marcos Louzada Silva

To boil the MIT math above down to the obvious, a top ten pick should be able to contribute in some capacity while second-round picks can expect an uphill battle to remain on the roster, and draft class talent varies by year. Injuries and other circumstances led to a bigger role than expected for Jaxson Hayes (8th overall). Though his play was lauded by the team, his selection can still be critiqued somewhat. High standards follow high draft picks and the front offices that make the selection.

Tyler Herro, Rui Hachimura, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, P.J. Washington, and Cam Reddish were all on the board and a theoretical trade down could have netted more assets. However, Hayes also looks to be a potential All-Star should he continue developing his shot out to the three-point range. Balancing future potential with present production is the hardest part of a front office wanting to contend sooner rather than later.

Silva was a second-round pick headed to the NBL for another year of development, facing little pressure from the Pelicans’ home offices. Silva was always expected to take a developmental year overseas this season. In 24 games playing in the NBL for the Sydney Kings, Silva averaged 10.25 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.65 assists, and .71 steals in 20.03 minutes per contest. He shot 42% from the field but a worrisome 60% from the free-throw line. He hit on 34% from deep, taking 4.85 per game in his first year playing outside of Brazil.

This article on Indifferent Probability and NBA Draft Pick Value explains why hitting big on Silva will be of greater value to the Pelicans. He cost less, could produce as on the same level as higher-priced veteran options, and gives the team a chance to trade anyone that Silva displaces. Incorporating the on-court value and salary cost, Silva is effectively a better value than Hayes if Silva can produce close to the same level of Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Developmental Minutes Depth Chart: Value of Alexander-Walker and Silva versus the Field

Alexander-Walker (17th overall) and Silva could be competing for minutes against Frank Jackson (just turned 22 in May). Jackson is a holdover from the Dell Demps era of the Pelicans who is out of contract after this season is officially concluded. Jackson saw his minutes per game decrease from 19.2 to 12.9 this season. He averaged 5.6 points, 1.4 rebounds, and 0.8 assists. The Pelicans are hoping Silva or Alexander-Walker can step into that role immediately.

Along with Josh Hart’s versatility, Lonzo Ball’s arrival to serve as a backcourt partner for Jrue Holiday kept Jackson on the bench for longer periods of time when the team was fully healthy. When given a bigger role, Jackson was dynamic on both ends of the court, but far too inconsistent. If he leaves in free agency and is not replaced, those minutes should be split between the two 2019 draft picks next season.

Comparing the three, Silva is younger with more length and just as much explosiveness going to the rim. Alexander-Walker’s summer confidence was still present once he moved to New Orleans but his spurts of dominance did not carry over to the NBA’s regular season. He averaged 5.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, usually getting about 12 minutes per game. He even required a two-game trip to the G-League to knock off some on-court rust and was he was all but forgotten once the Pelicans were again in the playoff conversation.

In two G-League games, Alexander-Walker started and play 34.9 minutes. He averaged 16.5 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists but committed 5.5 turnovers per game. He will soon be 22 years old, fighting veterans to get off the bench, and making around $3 million a year. His contract inflates to over $5 million in two seasons. Both Frank Jackson and Kenrich Williams are free agents this summer and make less than $2 million now.

Should Silva prove capable of carrying the backup guard load for 12 minutes a game, would the Pelicans need to carry so many guards? New Orleans was already at a height disadvantage for most of the season. The team should be looking to bring in someone to help Williamson and Hayes patrol the paint, especially if Derrick Favors departs in free agency. In the next three seasons, will Alexander-Walker have more value as a rotational piece or as cleared cap space spent on frontcourt depth or just cap space and another draft pick?

On the other hand, the young guard from Muqui, Brazil turns 21 on July 2. Silva was the fifth pick of the second round. He stands at 6’4’’ and 185 pounds. He will cost far less and so far it looks like he could provide the same production. Silva posted an NBA Summer League stat line of 11 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.5 steals in 27 minutes per game. He shot 44% from the field, went 8/18 from deep, and converted but did not hit either of his free-throws.

Yes, he only got to the line once in four games but he did block a couple of shots and only committed 7 fouls during the NBA’s summer showcase. It was Silva’s basketball debut in the United States. Should Silva prove he can live up to the expectations the team has of him, he will be far more valuable to the team than his second-round contract costs against the cap, percentage-wise. Silva would actually be saving the New Orleans Pelicans a few dollars by allowing them to allocate resources elsewhere.

Silva will also cost far less than most offers Jackson receives this summer. That cost-effectiveness paired with his potential on the court makes Silva far more valuable than the average second-round NBA draft pick. Silva would be a first-round pick this year, going by his play with the Sydney Kings and comparing his NBL Next Stars stats to other prospects.

The San Antonio Spurs build a dynasty on a generational talent top pick and middle/back of the draft sleepers. New Orleans can do the same. Hayes will get paid almost three times as much as Silva next season and twice as much as Alexander-Walker. Depending on Derrick Favors or another free agent center, will Hayes be worth that much more to the Pelicans than the backup guard?

If not, Marcos Louzada ‘Didi’ Silva would be the best value pick of the 2019 NBA Draft for the New Orleans Pelicans, after Zion Williamson of course.