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Topline
Key officials in at least three battleground states say they have not discussed with the Trump campaign a reported plan in which Republican legislatures would “bypass” their state’s popular vote and appoint Trump-friendly electors to the Electoral College, as election experts have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of what could be an election “nightmare scenario” outlined by a recent Atlantic article.
President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on September 22, 2020 in Moon Township, … [+]
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Key Facts
Pennsylvania Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman called the Atlantic piece “pure conjecture” in a statement Friday, claiming to have had “zero contact” with the Trump campaign about a reported plan and noting the state’s Election Code for how electors are chosen “does not involve the legislature.”
Three Republican officials in Pennsylvania told the Atlantic they had discussed the potential contingency plan among themselves, and Pennsylvania Republican Party chairman Lawrence Tabas said he had “mentioned” the plan to the Trump campaign.
Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Andrew Hitt and Wisconsin State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos denied any knowledge of the plan to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, and a spokesman for North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore told the Guardian it was not being discussed among the state’s lawmakers.
States are not constitutionally required to appoint electors based on the popular vote, and the Atlantic report suggests the Trump campaign could use the threat of perceived mail-in voter fraud—which is extremely rare—to persuade GOP state legislatures in battleground states to ignore the ballots and appoint electors “that [they] think properly reflect the results of [their] state.”
State legislatures do have the power to decide the manner in which electors are appointed, though elections expert Rick Hasen noted on Twitter that trying to do so after voting is already underway may not be legally feasible, calling the scenario “extremely unlikely” but “not impossible.”
The Atlantic report notes that there are several potential ways in which the scenario could be thwarted: Democratic governors or Secretaries of State may nullify the legislators’ actions by certifying the popular vote, or Democratic electors could band together and challenge the plan by certifying their own votes and sending them to the Senate, ultimately putting the question in Congress’ hands and potentially triggering a constitutional crisis.
Crucial Quote
“It’s the ultimate nightmare scenario for the country,” Richard Pildes, a law professor at New York University, told the Guardian. “There’s no reason to think there would be any appropriate basis for doing this. It’s not at all clear that the legal power to do it even exists.”
Chief Critic
“The Atlantic story is false and ridiculous. The types of contingency plans included in the story are impossible,” a Trump campaign spokesperson said in a statement to the Guardian. A Trump legal advisor previously confirmed the plan to the Atlantic, and deputy national press secretary Thea McDonald did not directly address or deny the scenario in a statement to the Atlantic, saying that Trump “is fighting for a trustworthy election…‘and any argument otherwise is a conspiracy theory intended to muddy the waters.’”
Big Number
6. That’s the number of battleground states with Republican legislatures that could be affected by the potential plan: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The only ones that also have Republican governors are Arizona and Florida, however, and Arizona has a Democratic Secretary of State, who oversees the state’s elections.
Key Background
The potential for what could happen in the wake of election day has been a matter of great concern in recent weeks, as the increased reliance on mail-in voting amid the Covid-19 pandemic makes it more likely that it will take days to determine the ultimate presidential victor. With polling suggesting that mail-in voters are more likely to support Joe Biden than Trump, strategists have warned of the possibility of a “red mirage” scenario, in which Trump may be ahead on election night before mail-in ballots are fully counted, causing the president to preemptively declare victory before the election is officially called and sow chaos. Trump has stoked those fears in recent days by refusing to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if Biden wins, calling instead to “get rid of the ballots” to ensure the “continuation” of his presidency.
Further Reading
Could Republicans ignore the popular vote and choose their own pro-Trump electors? (The Guardian)
The Election That Could Break America (The Atlantic)
Support For Abolishing Electoral College Hits Nearly 10-Year High: Poll (Forbes)
Report: Trump Campaign Actively Discussing Radical Measures To Bypass Election Results (Forbes)
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