Tel Aviv: The Final Frontier For Gulf Airlines Opens With Israel-UAE Relations

It became increasingly hard last decade to name a major city the Middle East hub airlines – Emirates, Etihad and Qatar – did not fly to. After covering gateways they inaugurated secondary points and reached tertiary destinations.

But one city remained amiss: Tel Aviv.

Israel’s economic center, a no-go for political reasons, was the largest unserved destination for Gulf carriers. (Second for Etihad and Qatar was another sensitive city: Taipei.)

In the absence of Gulf carriers, Turkish Airlines became the biggest foreign airline in Tel Aviv, leveraging its Istanbul hub. Cathay Pacific used its Hong Kong base to link Israel with the Jewish community in Australia. Air India, accustomed to competing with Gulf hub stopover itineraries, flew to Tel Aviv worry-free.

But now Tel Aviv, the final frontier for Gulf carriers, is within reach. The normalization of Israel-UAE relations promises direct flights between the two countries, hope at a time so many borders are up.

The Israel-UAE market promises to be sizeable (unleash the think tanks!), larger than 2018’s first Ethiopia-Eritrea flight in 20 years, but not as big as the Cross-Strait Mainland China-Taiwan market that opened in 2008.

The route maps at Emirates, flydubai and Etihad – the UAE’s largest carriers – will gain another pin. But it’s less clear how many flights will be allowed and if Israel will join the more coveted open skies list of countries allowing unlimited flights.

Israel has refreshingly not gone out of the way to protect its flag carrier, much to the annoyance of El Al. But the UAE-Israel market may open up in phases as part of wider policy, as mainland China did with Taiwan.

The immediate focus is likely local passengers between Israel and the UAE. Then Emirates will activate its prowess of global connections.

Local traffic is almost entirely new since travel between Israel and the UAE was difficult and required discretion. In comparison, Macau and Hong Kong were open transit points before Taiwan and mainland China had direct flights.

The UAE’s airlines will lead growth, expanding the pie, to use one of aviation’s favorite metaphors. Less welcome are allegations of “stealing” passengers or re-distributing the share of the pie.

Marketshare will inevitably change, as it always has. The most pronounced effects are to destinations east of Tel Aviv where the UAE has a geographical advantage as a well-placed hub.

But westward shifts may occur indirectly. A UAE carrier might win a passenger that would otherwise fly Turkish Airlines. In turn, Turkish may grow connections from the U.S., whose airlines are expanding to Israel in an unusual show of enthusiasm for long-haul services. In the middle of Covid, United and American announced new Tel Aviv flights from Chicago and New York, respectively.

Where’s next for Emirates after touching down in Tel Aviv? It has still yet to return to Doha. The region’s blockade against Qatar continues. A frontier is cleared, but the backyard remains adrift.