Texas Leads Nation In Early Voting At 8.5 Million Cast – 94% Of 2016 Turnout

Topline

Even with stiff competition in an election year featuring record-shattering early voter figures nationwide, Texas is seeing unparalleled early voting numbers and could be on track to exceed 2016 turnout ahead of election day.

Key Facts

Key Background

Texas has seen a massive population influx in recent years as well as an increase in eligible voters, with around 2 million people moving there from other states and 800,000 Latinos turning 18 since the 2016 election, according to the Washington Post. Democrats have worked to seize on these demographic changes – which have happened most dramatically among Democratic voting blocs like Latinos and young voters – with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, registering 200,000 new voters in the state.

Big Number

79 million. That’s how many early votes have been cast nationwide with 5 days to go until Election Day, according to the Elections Project. That exceeds the 58.3 million pre-election votes cast in 2016 and comes out to 57.3% of the more than 136 million total votes cast in the 2016 election. Several potentially pivotal swing states have exceeded three quarters of 2016 turnout, including North Carolina at 81% and Florida at 77%.

What To Watch For

Texas is slated to host its tightest presidential race in decades, with FiveThirtyEight putting President Trump up by just 1.4 points in the once reliably Republican state. While polls tend to show Trump up, Cook Political Report editor noted that polling errors in the Southwest region in recent cycles have underrated Democrats, who outperformed their RealClearPolitics polling by 2.7 points in 2016 and 3.8 points in 2018.