The NBA Draft Lottery Provided Little Clarity For The Phoenix Suns’ Offseason

After all the Zoom close-ups of virtual team reps and all the ping-pong ball hoopla of NBA Draft Lottery night, the Phoenix Suns emerged with exactly the pick they expected to get and no more clarity about the offseason.

The Suns finished the season (pre-Bubble) with the 10th-worst record in the NBA, which gave them the 10th-best chances at the No. 1 overall pick in the lottery. While Charlotte and Chicago jumped into the top four, it did not impact Phoenix at all, leaving them with the 10th pick when the dust cleared. 

“Our approach to the draft hasn’t changed,” general manager James Jones said post-game. “We expected to get the 10th pick and we ended up with the 10th pick. It would have been great to move up in the lottery, but given where we are, we think we’ll be able to draft a really good player at 10.”

This year’s draft is wide open for a variety of reasons. There is no consensus No. 1 overall pick like Zion Williamson or Anthony Davis. And the pre-draft process has been basically non-existent, with no in-person team workouts and no Draft Combine in Chicago like usual. Though the Suns stayed at No. 10, they may well end up with someone they had their eye on in the top four. 

Take a player like Killian Hayes, the French guard who will garner comparisons to James Harden because of his lefty shooting touch and combo-guard size. In ESPN’s day-after mock draft, Hayes landed at No. 14, signaling that his range is as high as the top five and as low as the late lottery. By my armchair scout’s perspective, Hayes would be a great fit for Phoenix on both ends as a smart team defender who can guard multiple positions and create turnovers while creating his own shot on offense and making teammates better. Should the team target Hayes, they would’ve felt much more secure hopping into the top four to do so, but he very well could be there at 10, too.

Then there’s the matter of salary. In an offseason in which the salary cap is not yet locked in, much could have changed if the Suns were on the hook to pay someone a top pick’s salary. The player drafted tenth, though, is projected to earn a smaller $3.5 million in the first year of their deal based on the NBA rookie scale. Phoenix will have more cap space relative to the rest of the league, but the team is no closer to knowing the exact amount it will have to spend.

At this point, even the date of the draft and free agency are in flux. 

“As of right now it’s October 16, but it’s all fluid,” Jones said. “We’ve gone through this process knowing that it had to be fluid. Covid is something that’s unpredictable. Trying to balance Covid, bringing fans back into our building, cap projections, all those things make it tough.”

With reports lately suggesting exactly what Jones said — that hosting fans again is a top priority — the season could move as far back as March in order to do so. That would mean the Suns (and most of the league) go from August until February, when a training camp might occur, without organized, competitive basketball. 

Draft prospects — who haven’t played since March — have it even worse.

“The biggest challenge is these players won’t have the ability to play five-on-five pickup basketball, to run in the gym with us and other draftees or free agents and stay sharp,” Jones said. “That’s the challenge, is seeing if you can measure or gauge how far behind a guy will be with his basketball timing when you evaluate in the short period of time that you do have.”

If there’s anything the Suns do have clarity on, it’s the types of players they believe in. “Capacity” was the keyword Jones returned to in his post-lottery press conference. While the team’s two 2019 first-round picks, Cameron Johnson and Ty Jerome, were both upperclassmen, Jones refused to rule out younger players if they demonstrated an ability to learn and improve quickly. 

“We’re always looking for experience, always looking for capacity,” Jones said. “I don’t look at age. If there’s a young player who’s demonstrated the ability to be consistent enough to earn minutes, I have no problem drafting that player.”

That was certainly true of Johnson, who stepped into a starting role in the Bubble and helped lead the Suns to an 8-0 record. Virtual interviews and the gathering of intel will help Jones and his front office determine which 2020 prospects offer similar capacity. Last summer, head coach Monty Williams was heavily involved in draft workouts, walking players through drills and competition, a step that was likely invaluable in determining capacity, and one that the Suns will now have to do without. 

Down the road, a potential minicamp or Summer League stand-in is possible but unknowable here in August. The lottery typically sets off an exciting time of team-building and improvement, but in 2020, it merely is the first in a chain reaction of more important decisions to be made in due time.