The Oakland A’s Would Be Division Favorites In The Grapefruit And Cactus Plan

If baseball does indeed happen in 2020, it’s likely to be different in any number of ways. Home run derbies to decide extra-inning games? A revamped, expanded playoffs? Bigger rosters? Everything is a maybe at this point, and one of the bigger open questions is where the games would be played and if the leagues and divisions would be scrambled. Under one proposal, leaked anonymously to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the games would be played at the teams’ Spring Training sites, possibly without fans, and the leagues would be scrapped for 2020 in place of the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues in Florida and Arizona respectively. Under one proposed division alignment, the Oakland A’s would become division favorites.

In a sketched out Northeast Division of the Cactus League (presumably that refers to Northeast Arizona), the NL West would bring three teams: the San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies, but instead of the rising challenger Padres and the division dominating Los Angeles Dodgers, the remaining two teams would be the Chicago Cubs and Oakland A’s. Who knows how a shortened MLB season would play out – a half season of games would make every random bounce count double – but the A’s would be happy with their draw. Looking at Fangraphs’ projected run differentials for the 2020 season, the A’s lead that five-pack with a +60 figure. The Cubs aren’t too far behind at +42, but the Snakes (-6), Rockies (-47) and Giants (-94) are all projected to allow more than they give up. Projections aren’t gospel, of course, but they likely undercount certain players, namely Mike Fiers, who induces pop-ups at a high rate and tends to run low batting averages on balls in play, which projection systems often discount as luck-based. Projections also don’t think much of Sean Manaea, despite his sizzling performance on return from Tommy John surgery last season. A shorter season would also allow AJ Puk and Jesus Luzardo to pitch “full” seasons without their innings total being managed.

All that said, the Cubs and Diamondbacks could present strong challengers, and who knows what would happen to the Rockies’ talented pitching, suddenly freed of Coors’ field and its altitudinal amplifications to hitting. Chicago still has a trio of infield superstars in Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez and Kris Bryant, and a solid veteran roster. The Diamondbacks have two excellent Martes and a surprisingly potent pitching staff. Either is capable of winning the imagined Cactus Northeast, especially in a short season but even in a longer one.

That said, the A’s had the best context-neutral offense in 2019, according to wRC+, and their lead is big enough that none of the roster changes made by these five teams would change that (only the Cubs were close). The same is true of context-neutral pitching (by ERA-, though the Cubs catch up if we use FIP-). In each case, the A’s were the best by a significant amount, followed by the Cubs, then Diamondbacks, with the Giants and Rockies well underwater.

It’s not the season any of us wanted, but if it does happen, it could be a fun one for the Oakland A’s (of Northeast Arizona). The best thing you can do to make it happen is maintain social distance and wash your hands.