Three Toronto Blue Jays Breakout Candidates For 2021 Season

The lull of a long baseball offseason is upon us. And while there are likely plenty of moves ahead for the Toronto Blue Jays, for now the team is relatively dormant.

So let’s look inward and see who among the already-rostered can take a step forward in 2021, shall we? Here are three breakout candidates on the Blue Jays:

RP Jordan Romano

Age: 27

2020 stats: 14 2/3 innings, 1.23 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 0.886 WHIP, 12.9 K/9

Judging by how effective Romano was in 2020, you might think he doesn’t belong on this list. But even in a shortened season, it feels fair to balk at the idea that 14 2/3 innings can produce enough value to warrant the “breakout” label.

Plus, for as good as Romano was in 2020, he was dreadful in a small sample in 2019 (7.63 ERA in 15 1/3 innings). Now it’s time to ask if the real Romano can please stand up.

A best-case scenario for the Blue Jays would be to see Romano compete for — if not win — the vacancy at closer left by Ken Giles. Romano was one of six Blue Jays to record at least one save last season, securing two in three opportunities.

There isn’t a ton of Statcast data so far on Romano, whose MLB career spans just two seasons, but the early returns are good. His fastball averaged 96.6 mph last season and generated a whiff rate of 54.6 percent, which is markedly above league average.

Romano deploys a two-pitch mix — fastball and slider — which is really all you need as a closer. Then again, Anthony Bass (team-high seven saves in 2020) has the inside track on that role.

Still, Romano can be plenty serviceable as a setup man if that’s his lot in life. He just needs to avoid the injury bug, and he could be something special next year.

C Alejandro Kirk

Age: 22

2020 stats: 25 plate appearances, .375/.400/.583, three XBH, 166 OPS+

This time last year, how many Blue Jays fans even knew who Kirk was?

No disrespect to the youngster, but he appeared to be soundly blocked at reaching the majors, especially with a promising twosome of Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire manning the plate.

Yeah … so much for that.

Neither Jansen, McGuire, nor Caleb Joseph (a veteran brought in last January) did anything offensively to inspire confidence from the Blue Jays front office in 2020. As a trio, they batted 26-for-169 (.154) with 43 strikeouts and 11 extra-base hits. That’s nightmarish.

The poor performances from his colleagues helped Kirk stand out in limited action, but he did plenty on his own to draw eyeballs, too. Now we get to see if the hype is real.

Keep in mind that Kirk wouldn’t have been in the majors last year if not for the strangeness of the pandemic-afflicted season. Prior to 2020, his highest level of pro ball came with the advanced-A Dunedin Blue Jays. But he was picked for the alternate training site and showed he was ready, so, ta-da he’s a major-leaguer now.

Kirk was Toronto’s catcher of the future. Now he has a chance to be their catcher of the, well, now.

1B/3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Age: 21

2020 stats: 243 plate appearances, .262/.329/.462, 24 XBH, 115 OPS+

Guerrero Jr. is already a good offensive player. But he’s expected to be so much more.

This is a guy who was once the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball. A guy who batted .402 in 61 double-A games in 2018. A guy who murdered several baseballs in one of the most captivating home run derby performances ever.

So when you look at his first two MLB seasons and you see a 109 OPS+, it’s OK to be a little disappointed. But at the same time, you must remember that he’s not even 22 yet — and he has so much of his career ahead of him.

So, what will it take to break out?

For one, he needs to elevate the baseball. That’s not an original thought; people know this about Guerrero Jr. He mashes the ball (93rd percentile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity) but his average launch angle is 4.6 degrees. Last year, in 85 plate appearances in which he had a launch angle of five degrees or above, he batted .400.

The second thing he needs to do relates to his position in the field. Is he a first baseman or a third baseman? If you ask him, he’ll say third. But he didn’t play third at all last year, and it’s important that he’s able to stick somewhere in the field so he can focus on his bat.

The third thing is his physical stature. Guerrero Jr. knows he was carrying some extra pounds this past summer, which is why he has shed more than 30 pounds since July.

If Guerrero Jr. can elevate the baseball more consistently, hone in on one defensive position and remain lighter on his feet, he’ll show everyone why he was the game’s top prospect once upon a time.