Today’s 2020 Election Polls: Biden Keeps Strong National Lead, But Pennsylvania, Florida Tighten

Topline

Polls out Thursday indicate the race between Joe Biden and President Trump appears unchanged nationally but more volatile at the state level, as another national survey showed the Democratic nominee ahead by almost double digits, but holding a narrow lead in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania.

Key Facts

Surprising Fact

Polls out Thursday continue to show Biden polling well with seniors as compared to Hillary Clinton four years ago. The Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group Pennsylvania poll shows Biden leading Trump by 11 points (53%-42%). In 2016, Trump won seniors by 10 points, according to exit polls. 

Tangent

A Morning Consult poll released Thursday found Trump leading Biden by 10 points among military-affiliated voters, even after The Atlantic reported the president had called fallen soldiers “losers” and “suckers.” 

Key Background

Biden has just a 6% chance of winning the Electoral College if he wins the popular vote by 0-1 points over Trump, a 22% chance if he wins by 1-2 points and a 46% chance if he beats Trump by 2-3 points, according to models reported by FiveThirtyEight. In 2016, Hillary Clinton topped Trump by 2.1 points in the popular vote, but fell in the Electoral College.