Today’s 2020 Election Polls: Biden Up In Florida, Close In Texas

Topline

President Donald Trump is narrowly ahead in Texas where Biden is surprisingly competitive—but the president is trailing the former vice president in Florida as both candidates make a last-minute push Thursday by holding dueling rallies in the state.

Key Facts

A University of Massachusetts Lowell poll found Trump is up by one point in Texas and is slightly favored to win the state, according to FiveThirtyEight, though it’s unprecedented Democrats are even competitive in the staunchly red state.

A Monmouth University poll found Biden is up four points in Florida, a contentious battleground state seen as a must-win for Trump.

A New York Times/Siena poll found Biden is slightly ahead in North Carolina (48% to 45%), a state Trump won in 2016 by 3.5 points.

Biden maintains a healthy lead in national polls, with a Morning Consult poll finding Biden up nine points and an IBD/TIPP poll showing Biden leading by 4.7 points, 50%-45.3%.

Key Background

Trump is visiting both Florida and North Carolina before the election, indicating the campaign may be concerned about those areas in the last stretch before November 3. The president has traveled to North Carolina nine times since early September, according to the New York Times, and has held five rallies in Florida since the end of September.

What To Watch For

If Biden ekes out a victory in Texas, that would almost certainly sway the race in his favor—but it’s a longshot for the campaign. The Biden’s camp is also optimistically looking at Georgia, where the former vice president is up by 1.7 points on average.


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