Topline

A slate of polls out Tuesday showed Joe Biden boasting a solid lead in the battleground states of North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, and Minnesota—and dramatically reversing President Trump’s lead among Hispanics in Florida—helping to ease Democrats’ concerns about an emerging weakness for the Democratic nominee in the bellwether state.

Key Facts

A Monmouth University poll of voters in Florida — conducted September 10-15 in a survey of 428 registered voters —  found Biden ahead of Trump by 5 points (50%-45%), a positive result for the Democratic nominee who has led by just 1.6 points on average in the state.

The poll also showed Biden winning Hispanic voters in the state by a whopping 26 points (58%-32%), a dramatic swing from past surveys that had the Democratic nominee losing to Trump among that demographic. 

Trump is narrowly leading among seniors in the Sunshine State (49%-47%), Monmouth’s survey found — but in 2016, Trump won seniors in Florida by 17 points, according to exit polls (57%-40%.)   

Another Florida poll released Tuesday, this one conducted by Florida Atlantic University, showed Biden up 3 points in the state (49%-46%).   

CNN polls released Tuesday showed Biden ahead among likely voters in North Carolina by 3 points (49%-46%) and Wisconsin (52%-42%.) 

A Morning Consult poll found Biden ahead in Minnesota 48% to44%, a closer-than-expected sign since the state has not voted Republican since 1972.  

Key Background

Polls have consistently shown Biden struggling with Hispanic voters in Florida, which make up a large portion of the population. Biden has favored particularly poorly with Cuban-Americans. The Trump campaign has attempted to capitalize on Biden’s weakness with Hispanics, and recently ran a misleading ad that shows clips of the former vice president next to former Latin American dictators Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s former president, and Fidel Castro, Cuba’s former leader. 

What To Watch For 

Biden has led consistently in national polls by an average of 7.5 points and has polled well in several battleground states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. But his performance in two states that could tip the Electoral College — Florida and Pennsylvania — has been more precarious. Biden leads by 1.6 points on average in Florida polls and by 4.3 points in Pennsylvania surveys.

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