‘Trolls: World Tour’ Breaks Records With The Biggest Digital Debut Ever

Will Trolls: World Tour be a Hollywood game-changer or just an answer to a historical trivia question?

Universal is reporting that Trolls: World Tour scored the biggest opening day and opening weekend for a digital title, with a figure 10x larger than Universal’s next-biggest traditional digital release. It is top on every relevant digital platform, including Amazon, Comcast
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, Apple
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, Vudu, Google/YouTube, DirectTV and FandangoNow. They are also noting that the #TrollsWorldTour hashtag generated 14,000 tweets in the week prior to release. FandangoNow is reporting that Trolls: World Tour is their most pre-ordered title ever and was the top-selling release on all three of its first three days. It fueled what turned out to be the service’s biggest total weekend in their short history. So, yes, it’s the closest we’re going to get to a traditional “new movie tops box office” report for awhile. But does it mean anything beyond audiences flocking to the new release with the massive marketing campaign behind it?

There has been much discussion about how the “premium Video On Demand” release of DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls: World Tour has the potential to be a game-changer in terms of major releases skipping theaters and heading straight to VOD (or a studio’s subscription-driven streaming platform). I am still of the mind, and frankly the studios seem to still be of the mind, that opening the Trolls sequel in theaters (via the few participating theaters, mostly drive-ins, still open nationwide) and on VOD concurrently was an exception to the rule. Universal
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has been aggressive in giving their other big titles (Candyman, No Time to Die, F9, Minions 2) new theatrical release dates, while Paramount and Sony have likewise shifted their planned summer biggies into late 2020 or early 2021. And despite silly rumors about Mulan and Black Widow heading to VOD (or Disney
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+), both tentpoles got new theatrical release dates.

Yes, it is possible that if the quarantine/social distancing/etc. continues well into the rest of the year that studios will just sacrifice huge financial windfalls later in order to score quick cash sooner. There is no precedent for a title earning anywhere near as much on VOD and physical media sales as an A-level like like Black Widow or F9 would in a global theatrical release. Even numbers comparable to the $400 million-plus physical media sales/rentals of Avatar and Frozen would a lot less than the likely $650-$1.1 billion theatrical earnings of a Wonder Woman 1984. Conversely, the likes of Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Black Panther and The Avengers all earned between $100 million and $250 million in physical media transactions, and that’s with the post-theatrical interest being spurred by a successful theatrical release. Trolls 2 skipped theaters because of reasons that made sense for Trolls 2.

The first Trolls was a moderate success, earning $153 million domestic and $347 million worldwide on a $125 million budget in late 2016. There was no guarantee that the $90 million sequel would match or exceed those grosses. Recent history shows that kid-targeted animated sequels sans marquee characters (Anna Kendrick’s Poppy and Justin Timberblake’s Branch are not Anna and Elsa) are as likely to drop huge from their predecessors as they are to match or exceed the last picture. Despite being as good as (if not better than) the first films, Secret Life of Pets 2 (from $875 million to $430 million), LEGO Movie 2 ($468 million/$192 million) and Angry Birds Movie 2 ($352 million/$155 million) all dipped way below their respective predecessors. Would Trolls: World Tour, also better than its predecessor, have suffered a similar fate even in ideal circumstances? All signs point to “maybe.”

Trolls: World Tour was arguably sent out as a guinea pig because, along with most of its marketing spend being accounted for, it’s a theatrical questionable kid-friendly title. Kid-friendly movies have usually been bigger post-theatrical earners. They provide an hour or two of kid-free distraction. They are often a fine value in terms of kids watching the same movie many, many times. That $15 purchase of Rampage has paid for itself many times over. That’s a bigger deal when families have been stuck inside for weeks, and the $20 price-point is arguably more attractive to a quarantined family of four or five than might the same price point for Universal’s R-rated The Hunt. I’m now more confident that commercially questionable kid titles like Disney’s The One and Only Ivan, Warner Bros.’ Scoob and Paramount’s The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge On The Run may end up debuting at home.

That all being said, this success comes with a few obvious disclaimers and caveats. First, we have no idea how well Trolls: World Tour would have performed in theaters had it opened this month in a normal environment. Ditto had it indeed skipped theaters and gone to VOD in a time when audiences weren’t stuck in their homes. Many of the folks who shelled out $20 to rent the DWA sequel are among the same demographics that would have seen it in theaters during a conventional theatrical release. The unprecedented nature of the current global pandemic also makes the top-tier results of this unprecedented VOD release somewhat harder to gauge in terms of long-term lessons. Moreover, Universal still probably would have preferred normal VOD numbers following a $400-$500 million global theatrical release. The studios’ desire to close the theatrical window has never been about skipping theaters entirely.

When Universal flirted with offering $60 rentals three weeks after the theatrical debut of Tower Heist back in 2011, and when Disney caused a ruckus by releasing Alice in Wonderland onto DVD and Blu-ray just 90 days after its theatrical debut (when it earned $334 million domestic and $1.025 billion worldwide), it wasn’t about negating those theatrical grosses. It was about whether a movie, especially a big movie, could move up the post-theatrical start date without sacrificing theatrical grosses in the process. The theatrical window, now around 90-100 days, is frankly of paramount importance (even as most moviegoers see a given film in the first 60 days of release) since at-home viewing options have improved in terms of quality, affordability and convenience. Right now, the only trump card theaters have is temporary exclusivity, which is harmed by faster post-theatrical debuts and possibly crippled by day-and-date theater/VOD releases.

Presuming the coronavirus threat subsides and the theaters open in the near future, I’m guessing that Trolls: World Tour will remain merely a historical footnote and a trivia question during an unprecedented moment in the entertainment business. While I would expect to see other commercially questionable titles (think smaller indie titles or kid-targeted toons) consider going down the Trolls: World Tour path, that was inevitable regardless of the current circumstances. Until there is any reason to think that an A-level tentpole title can earn enough to approximate a global theatrical release just via post-theatrical sales and rentals, theatrical release will still be the goal, with a vibrant VOD/DVD business supplementing, not replacing, the multiplex. Trolls: World Tour may represent the future for films like Trolls: World Tour, but it probably isn’t the future for A Quiet Place Part II, No Time to Die, Wonder Woman 1984 or Mulan.