Trump Narrows Gap In The Polls – But Biden Still Holds Commanding Leads

TOPLINE

National and swing state polls have begun to show former Vice President Joe Biden’s big leads over President Trump dwindling slightly since July, but he remains the overwhelming favorite according to most surveys.

KEY FACTS

In the RealClearPolitics national average of polls, Biden’s lead has dropped from 10 points in late June to 7 points in early August, still a margin on par with former President Barack Obama’s decisive victory in 2008.

Nonetheless, Biden maintains leads in all those states, including 6-point leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, three states that comprised the cornerstone of Trump’s 2016 electoral college win and will be critical for him in November.

Biden is also running competitively in states that Trump won by sizable margins—not just North Carolina, but also Arizona, where he leads by 2 in the RealClearPolitics average, and Georgia, where recent polls from SurveyUSA and HIT Strategies put him up 2 and 4 points respectively.

Trump has ramped up his attacks in recent weeks, suggesting that under a Biden presidency crime and destruction will descend upon the middle class and suburban neighborhoods, that Biden’s “against god,” and, most recently, that China, North Korea and Iran “will own this country.”

But despite managing to bring Biden’s numbers down slightly, Trump is hurt by his own unpopularity, with a 43% approval rating and 55% disapproval rating in the RealClearPolitics average–and he doesn’t have much room for growth, as 2020 polls consistently have far fewer undecided voters than polls in 2016. 

Big Number

45%. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 964 registered voters released last week, 45% of voters said they strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance, in addition to 13% who said they somewhat disapprove. Among independent voters, 57% strongly disapprove, while nearly 1 in 5 Republican voters strongly or somewhat disapprove as well.

Crucial Quote

Some have noted that Biden’s continued lead comes despite increasingly severe attacks from Trump and Republicans, which have gone largely unreturned by the Biden campaign. “Biden’s okay-enough Wisconsin lead also comes after several weeks of Richard Uihlein’s PAC battering him with 60-second ads about his 1987 plagiarism scandal,” Washington Post reporter Dave Weigel said of a Marquette University poll showing Biden up 5 points in Wisconsin, down 1 point since July. “Biden isn’t breaking away but nothing’s dragging him down to Trump’s level of support,” he added.

What To Watch For

Trump’s response to the coronavirus remains underwater by 20 points in the RealClearPolitics average as most voters rate coronavirus as a major issue in their 2020 decision. Trump has begun to frame coronavirus developments, such as reopenings and vaccine development, in the context of Election Day, hinting a vaccine could be made available before Nov. 3. But some experts have cast doubt on such an optimistic timeline, and some analysts have argued that a vaccine breakthrough wouldn’t provide Trump the “October surprise” he needs to bounce back into contention.


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