Tyrese Maxey Could Be Kentucky’s Next NBA Star

Had it not been for the coronavirus pandemic, we all would have had the chance to see Tyrese Maxey in this year’s NCAA tournament. Maxey is arguably the best player on a Kentucky team that went 25-6 on the season. The Wildcats were also an SEC-best 15-3 against conference opponents.

On the season, the freshman guard averaged 14 points per game on 42.7 percent shooting from the floor and 29.2 percent shooting from three. Those numbers are far from inspiring, but Maxey is the type of player that fans would have loved watching during March Madness. Guards with his ability to score and make plays are generally the ones that end up carrying their teams on deep runs throughout the postseason. He also has a flare for the game that keeps fans on the edge of their seats. Just look at this pull-up three he hit against Michigan State in the first game of his college career (video from Synergy Sports):

Fortunately, we’ll all get plenty of opportunities to see Maxey play at the next level. The 6-foot-3 guard is projected to go somewhere in the lottery in the 2020 NBA Draft. And if it were up to me, he’d go somewhere in the top-6.

While Maxey shot just 29.2 percent from the outside this year, I’m confident he’ll end up being a good shooter in the NBA. The 19-year-old has attributed his lower percentages to primarily playing off the ball at Kentucky. With Ashton Hagans still in Lexington, head coach John Calipari simply wasn’t able to let Maxey serve as a lead guard. However, Maxey should be more of a combo guard than a straight-up shooting guard at the next level. Having more on-ball opportunities will give him a chance to get comfortable in games.

Maxey’s shooting form doesn’t set off any alarms. His release is a little lower than you want it to be, but even calling attention to that is nitpicking—Steph Curry and Trae Young have low releases and they’re two of the best shooters in the world. For the most part, Maxey’s mechanics are excellent. He also shot 86.4 percent from the line, and he has great touch on floaters. Both of those are good signs of future success as a shooter. Does this look like somebody you have to worry about?

Maxey is great at getting himself ready to fire before he has the ball. And despite not hitting at a high clip, the former McDonald’s All-American is always looking to shoot. That’s what you want out of somebody that might not be making shots as often as he’d like. Missing shots is fine. Turning them down is not.

The fact that Maxey has been in an off-ball role has also forced him to grow in a number of ways. Calipari is a master of making his players learn how to fit in, and that has helped Maxey become a better off-ball mover. If he were to be drafted to a team that already has a ball-dominant wing, he’d be prepared to help immediately.

Maxey has flashed play-making ability when handling the ball, though. He’s far from a pass-first player, but he is more than competent as a creator. That leaves him well suited to be a secondary ball handler at the next level. Also, at 1.235 points per possession (84^th percentile in NCAA), he is absolutely dynamite in transition. So why wouldn’t you want him to have the ball in his hands more often?

It’s also worth mentioning that Maxey knows how to get himself to the rim. With good handles and clever footwork, the 19-year-old should be able to continue to get to the basket. The fact he has his unique floater game keeps defenses on their toes. Here’s a look at his ability to attack the rim:

Maxey doesn’t finish in that play, but he draws so much attention that his teammate is able to follow it up. A lot has been made of Maxey’s lack of athleticism, but that doesn’t appear to be an issue there. Getting a shot off in that situation looked to be impossible at the start, but Maxey nearly ends up laying it in—and it sure looks like he took a bump on the lower body from Florida’s Scottie Lewis. Maxey knows how to make the most of his steps, and he has a subtle quickness to him. And for what it’s worth, Kentucky played that game without Hagans. Maxey served as the Wildcats’ primary initiator, finishing with seven assists and just one turnover in a 71-70 win. He didn’t shoot well, but he proved he can run an offense at a high level.

Defensively, Maxey has a claim to be the best on-ball defender in the draft at the guard position. While he might not be tall, Maxey does have a 6-foot-6 wingspan and impressive strength. That allows him to really get into his man. This play shows just how tenacious Maxey can be on the defensive end:

Alabama runs an out-of-bounds play from the baseline, attempting to free up John Petty Jr. for a triple. Petty shot 44 percent from three on 6.7 attempts per game this season, so an open look isn’t what the Wildcats want. Despite the Crimson Tide throwing two screens at Maxey, he doesn’t let Petty get any separation. Instead, Petty decides he has to drive to the rim. But Maxey is with him every step of the way, and he ultimately uses his length to force Petty into a terrible shot.

On the year, opponents scored just .273 points per possession (95^th percentile) on Maxey in isolation situations. Considering how often he’ll be guarding in space in the NBA, that’s a great sign. Maxey also improved as a pick-and-roll defender as the year progressed. That’s an action he’ll see more often than he can possibly imagine in the pros, so that improvement was essentially a requirement.

As far as positional versatility goes, Maxey will have no problems guarding point guards and shooting guards. Asking him to guard a small forward for an extended period time is where a coach might be in trouble, but he should be able to do it in a pinch. Guys that care as much as he does can typically play up a little. His motor is relentless.

Overall, Maxey is the ideal player for a team that is looking for somebody that can guard point guards but doesn’t require a high usage rate in order to make his mark on offense. Think about the Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic is a center, but he runs the entire offense. That allows Jamal Murray to focus on scoring the basketball, even if he’s listed as a point guard.

Maxey can be there to do the dirty work against point guards defensively, but he’ll also be there to spot up from three and put pressure on defenses on the offensive end. However, for teams that are in need of a primary ball handler, I’m of the opinion that Maxey is worth the gamble. He’s just good at doing so many things that teams are looking for out of a backcourt player.

Maxey might not have performed like a star in college, but we’ve seen a ton of Kentucky players outperform their draft slot throughout the John Calipari era. Maxey could be the next one to do just that.