/https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/602031ef53de2194de169351/0x0.jpg?cropX1=0&cropX2=4762&cropY1=75&cropY2=2755&w=1200&resize=1200,675&ssl=1 "U.K. Variant Doubling Every 10 Days And Could Become U.S.’s Dominant Strain By March, Study Finds")
Topline
The coronavirus variant that originated in the United Kingdom is spreading quickly across the U.S., according to the findings of a new study made public Sunday, which supports the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) prediction that the more contagious strain could become predominant in the U.S. by late March, potentially driving excess cases and deaths.
Apprentice Nursing’s Associate Ellie Bull administers the Astra Zeneca vaccine to a homeless person … [+]
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Key Facts
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed but was published to the medical site medRxiv, looked at half a million coronavirus tests and hundreds of genomes to document the spread of the U.K. variant, known as B.1.1.7.
The team of researchers estimated that this variant is roughly 30% to 40% more contagious than common variants, finding that its prevalence among positive cases shifted from less than one-half of 1% of all cases last month to 3.6% by the end of January.
The proportion of new coronavirus cases across the country that the U.K. variant is linked to is doubling every 9.8 days, with the timeline even shorter in Florida where its prevalence doubles every 9.1 days and where the study found the strain has the greatest hold.
While the CDC notes that Florida has the most cases involving the U.K. variant, with 187 infections as of Thursday, this new study estimates that the variant is actually responsible for more than 4% of cases in Florida.
The study’s authors sounded the alarm about their findings, urging the U.S. to ramp up its vaccine rollout to counter the spread of the variant, which they predict could be the predominant strain by late March.
Crucial Quote
“It is here, it’s got its hooks deep into this country, and it’s on its way to very quickly becoming the dominant lineage,” said study co-author Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona, in an interview with The Washington Post.
Key Background
The CDC issued a warning last month that the U.K. variant could become the dominant strain in the U.S. by March, beating out competing mutations like the South Africa variant, which Oxford-AstraZeneca said on Sunday may elude their vaccine, as well as the strains researchers have discovered in the Midwest and California. Though researchers have not yet concluded whether this strain is more lethal than others, the U.K. variant has been tied to surges in other countries it penetrated, including Ireland and Portugal. The U.S. has only recently started to see positive trends in its coronavirus data, including a decrease in deaths and hospitalizations after a devastating two months. Health experts, including the authors of this study, worry that the U.K. variant may serve to undo some of the U.S.’s progress if the country doesn’t take immediate and decisive action. “We should vaccinate as fast as we can,” said James Lu, one of the study’s co-authors.
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