UFC 249: Francis Ngannou Vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds, Preview, And Prediction

There won’t be any fans present on Saturday night at the Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida when Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik clash, but you can bet fans at home and anyone in attendance will be watching with nervous anticipation.

Rarely do you see two more powerful and explosive heavyweights in the Octagon together with a victory, defeat and a potentially career-altering KO just a millisecond away. We’ve seen Ngannou lay an egg in a similar matchup with Derrick Lewis, but there is something about this matchup that feels as though it will end differently.

As we prepare for the first major sporting event in the United States since COVID-19 forced a shutdown of the pro athletics in almost every format, here is a closer look at one of UFC 249’s most interesting fights.

The Odds

• Francis Ngannou -270 Jairzinho Rozenstruik +230, per BetOnline

Ngannou is getting tons of respect from oddsmakers with this matchup.

The -270 odds is pretty big considering Rozenstruik is a perfect 10-0, but there is likely something in the Suriname native’s last fight that has experts leaning in Ngannou’s direction.

The Last Three Fights

3 Fights, 3 KOs in 2:22

After Ngannou experienced the first two losses of his career, he has come back like a wrecking ball. He has scored three consecutive KO victories over Cain Velasquez, Curtis Blaydes, and Junior dos Santos–all in the first round.

The three fights have lasted a total of 2:22. I’m not sure a heavyweight can have a much more impressive three-fight run.

The Hail Mary Victory

In football, the Hail Mary, a last-second heave of a pass toward the end zone is often a team’s final chance to win a close game. Perhaps the closest thing to this concept in MMA is what Rozenstruik pulled off in his last fight against Alistair Overeem in December 2019.

Facing certain defeat after being controlled and outstruck for nearly five rounds, Rozenstruik landed a crushing shot that grotesquely split Overeem’s lip and led to an improbable TKO victory.

There was just four seconds left on the clock and in the fight when the stoppage occured.

Prior to that win, Rozenstruik stopped Andrei Arlovski and Allen Crowder in the first round. While Rozenstruik defeated Overeem, one has to wonder if the latter cracked the code before he got careless late.

The Statistical Advantages

Physically, the two men are fairly similar. Both stand 6’4” and bring muscularly thick frames into the Octagon. However, Ngannou has a noticeable advantage in reach (83” to 78”).

That could be a significant factor in a fight that will almost certainly play out on the feet.

Throughout his relatively short UFC career, Rozenstruik has been the more accurate puncher when compared to Ngannou.

Rozenstruik doesn’t wind up and crank the winging hooks and uppercuts the way Ngannou does at times. That tighter application of the striking game might explain why Rozenstruik lands 46 percent of his strikes to 37 percent for Ngannou.

On the other hand, Ngannou has been far tougher for his opponents to hit. His striking defense is at 48 percent to 32 for Rozenstruik, and the former has only absorbed 1.97 strikes per minute compared to the latter who eats 3.05.

Styles Make Fights

Traditionally, these kinds of battles between two powerful heavyweights is fought with a measured and cautious pace. I think that will be the case in this one as well. There is more at stake for Ngannou who has been chasing a second shot at a world title for more than two years.

Rozenstruik has been fast-tracked to this point, but with a win, he could steal Ngannou’s prime position. Even though Ngannou may be a little more measured, Rozenstruik is likely to try to close distance. Rozenstruik’s poor striking defense was apparent against Overeem.

Seventy percent of the strikes Overeem threw that night found their mark against Rozenstruik, and that susceptibility to stand-up attacks is a bad trait to have when facing Ngannou’s length and power.

The Prediction

This fight could come down to who lands the bomb first, and with Ngannou’s edge in reach and his titanic power, I’m banking on him stopping Rozenstruik.

My official prediction is Ngannou by second-round KO.