UFC 249: Jeremy Stephens Vs. Calvin Kattar Odds, Preview, And Prediction

The UFC returns on Saturday and the card isn’t short on interesting fights. The list of bouts with Fight-of-the-Night potential is long, and the featherweight scrap between Jeremy Stephens and Calvin Kattar is near the top.

Kattar is the favorite, but everyone with knowledge of the sport knows this one has the makings of an action-packed and competitive fight.

Let’s take a closer look.

The Odds

• Calvin Kattar -230, Jeremy Stephens +195, per BetOnline

While neither man comes in riding a win streak, Kattar is seemingly in a better position. He’s also two years younger and taller than Stephens. Those are likely the biggest factors in getting the nod from the oddsmakers.

The Last 3 Fights

Stephens’ Four-Fight Winless Streak

• Lost to Jose Aldo – KO1 – July 2018
• Lost to Zabit Magomedsharipov – UD – March 2019
• NC vs. Yair Rodriguez – September 2019
• Lost to Rodriguez – UD – October 2019

Stephens has faced insanely difficult competition of late, and he has been competitive with all of them, even Aldo who stopped him with a crushing body shot.

The fight with Magomedsharipov was one of the latter’s toughest battles to date, and the two bouts with Rodriguez weren’t shameful on Stephens’ side. Although, many will argue he could have continued in the first fight before taking the no-contest after the eye poke.

At any rate, he dropped the rematch a month later, but still put on a decent performance.

All three-fight losing streaks aren’t created equal, and if you were to rank some of the more respectable skids, Stephens’ current string of unfavorable results would rank pretty high.

Kattar 2-1 in his Last 3

• Lost to Magomedsharipov – UD3 – Nov. 2019
• Def Ricardo Lamas – KO1 – June 2019
• Def Chris Fishgold – KO1 – October 2018

Obviously, a loss to Magomedsharipov is respectable, especially when the fight went the distance. When you also consider Kattar had two straight first-round KO wins before the defeat to the dominant Russian, his stock remains high heading into the fight with Stephens.

The Statistical Advantages

While it may seem as though Stephens is the fighter who would throw more caution to the wind, and in turn eat more shots from opponents, it’s Kattar who absorbs 6.36 strikes per minute to just 2.98 for Stephens.

However, while Kattar takes more strikes, he is a more proficient striker than the heavy-handed Stephens. Kattar lands 41% of his strikes to 40 for Stephens, but he connects with 5.12 strikes per minute to just 3.09 for Stephens.

Granted, Stephens’ massive power doesn’t require him to land combinations to turn his opponent’s lights out, it’s still interesting to note Kattar landing far more shots with nearly the level of same accuracy.

Styles Make Fights

The numbers have a place, but it’s all about styles. Stephens is a better wrestler than most realize, but his preference is usually to keep the fight standing. That’s also the case with Kattar.

It would be a surprise to see someone shoot for a takedown, but I’d be willing to bet that if there is an attempt to push the action to the ground, it is initiated by Stephens. He is in what some might describe as a must-win situation. Guys will sometimes lean on their wrestling to control an opponent to limit risk.

Stephens’ choice to take the no-contest against Rodriguez makes me think he’s beginning to think about his mortality in the sport, and with 17 losses on his record, it’s understandable.

The Prediction

I like Kattar to win this fight in an interesting and competitive stand-up battle that has some ups and downs on both sides. Whomever can weather an inevitable storm and make some adjustments with timing and distance will prevail. My official prediction is Kattar by unanimous decision.