UFC 249 Odds, Preview, And Predictions

The return of major sports in America begins on Saturday night.

UFC 249 will take place at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida featuring a card highlighted by two championship bouts, and bolstered by recognizable names across the entire event.

Let’s take a close look at the entire UFC 249 card with details on odds, Friday’s weigh-in results, and predictions for each fight in bold.

UFC 249 Card, Odds, Weigh-In Results, Predictions

Only Jeremy Stephens missed weight by 4.5 pounds for Saturday’s card. He will be fined 30% of his purse.

UFC Interim Lightweight Championship

Tony Ferguson (-199) TKO3

Justin Gaethje (+174)

This fight is as close as can be on paper, but I lean toward Ferguson because his overall mixed martial arts toolbox is deeper. That said, Gaethje has a way of drawing guys into his fight, and few are better at pure brawling.

Still, I’m going with the favorite to win back the UFC interim Lightweight Championship. The best bet here might be the over/under on rounds. On Friday, their odds were in favor of the fight lasting less than 2.5 rounds (-140).

Because of both guys’ resiliency, I can see this being a war that goes into the third round.


UFC Men’s Flyweight Championship

Henry Cejudo (-225)

Dominick Cruz (+190) – UD

My upset pick for this card is Cruz over Cejudo. Just hours before the weigh-in, Cruz was a bigger underdog.

However, he made weight seemingly without major issue, and the size disparity when compared to the champion was even more evident. With all due respect to Cejudo, this might not be the best matchup for him if Cruz is 100 percent.


Francis Ngannou (-270) – KO2

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+230)

Destruction could be on tap in this crucial heavyweight bout. For me, length and reach will rule the day. Ngannou has a major edge in reach and when two, big and strong heavyweights like this clash, the result can easily be determined by who finds the mark for their shot first.

I believe Ngannou gets it done via second-round TKO.


Calvin Kattar (-275) – UD

Jeremy Stephens (+235)

I had Kattar winning this fight by unanimous decision originally, but when I saw how badly Stephens missed the mark at weigh-ins (4.5 pounds), it made me consider switching this prediction to a TKO victory for Kattar.

If he’s smart, Kattar can win this by decision with a more precision striking game. If he brawls, he might still be able to get the win–especially if he goes to the body.


Anthony Pettis (-144) – KO2

Donald Cerrone (+124)

Cerrone is at a dangerous spot in his career. He’s taken a beating in each of his last three fights. He consistently faces top-level competition, and it has led to his current three-fight losing streak.

He had one other three-fight skid back in 2017, but has never dropped four in a row. If he loses to Pettis by stoppage, as I predict he will, it might be time for Cerrone to answer some serious questions about his future.


Greg Hardy (-200)

Yorgan De Castro (+170) – UD

Almost everyone believes this one will end by vicious KO, and they might be right. That said, I can see it going the way of the Ngannou-Derrick Lewis fight back in July 2018. We all prepped for heavyweight warfare for that bout, but instead we got two guys respecting the others’ power so much they never engaged enough to make anything happen.

Hardy will press the action a bit more and De Castro has serious punching power. However, I can still see these two having a problem finding the target in a way that finishes the fight. Of course, because I say that, someone will finish the other in 30 seconds.

Officially, I’m picking De Castro to utilize a more diverse striking game boosted by leg kicks that disturb Hardy’s base. With stamina as an issue for both men if the fight goes deep, I’ve locked in on De Castro as the winner by unanimous decision.


Fabricio Werdum (-315) – UD

Aleksei Oleinik (+265)

The odds might be a little too wide here, but I do agree with the overall thought that Werdum wins. The ground games likely cancel each other out, but Werdum is a better striker. He his coming off a layoff and Oleinik has been far more active, but Werdum should enjoy such a major edge on the feet he has more than enough to win.

Officially, I like Werdum based on more accurate and effective striking.


Carla Esparza (-150) – UD

Michelle Waterson (+130)

Waterson is the better striker, but I’d give Esparza the edge in wrestling.

Because Waterson isn’t a major KO threat, I’m not sure she’ll have the kind of sting on her shots that can supersede or stop Esparza from gaining takedowns and top position.

Therefore, I have the former strawweight champion winning.


Jacare Souza (-125)

Uriah Hall (+105) – KO2

This is another tough fight to call, but it’s one I’m going with the underdog. Hall is a better striker than most in his weight class, but his fire to win isn’t always apparent.

Jacare has now ping ponged back-and-forth between middleweight and light heavyweight, and at his advanced age, I’m not sure that’s best for him.

Obviously, if he can get the fight to the ground, he’ll have a big advantage. However, Hall’s 69% takedown defense is a little above average, and he threatens with KO-level strikes from all levels.

I like Hall to get the win here by second-round TKO.


Vicente Luque (-260) – KO2

Niko Price (+220)

Luque is one of the most skilled strikers you’ll find. The only time he’s bested in recent fights is when he faces a bigger, more technically sound opponent. Price is a big welterweight, but not nearly as sharp on his feet as Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, who handed Luque a loss in his last fight.

Luque likely beats Price to the punch with something that leads to a stoppage. However, Luque must beware of Price’s Wolverine like recuperative powers and ingenuity. He’s pulled off some stunning wins when things have looked bleek during his career.

Still, I’m going with the favorite.


Bryce Mitchell (-170) – UD

Charles Rosa (+145)

Mitchell doesn’t pack much of a punch on his feet, but his grappling is at an elite level. Rosa is a brawler who can compete no matter where the fight goes. However, he isn’t necessarily spectacular in any one area.

Mitchell knows which side his bread is buttered, and he’ll get this thing to the ground. I give Rosa enough credit to avoid being submitted, but Mitchell should control this one with top position and his pursuit of submission finishes.


Ryan Spann (-415) – KO2

Sam Alvey (+315) 

Alvey is the biggest underdog on the card, and with good reason. He’s lost three in a row to Klidson Abreu, Jimmy Crute and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He’s facing a prospect on the rise in Spann, and giving up some length and athleticism in the process.

Alvey’s only chance is to try to take advantage of what could be an overly aggressive span, and to catch him coming in wildly. Don’t bank on that happening. Instead, Spann likely wins by stoppage.

Be sure to check for results and reactions to the results of the top fights at UFC 249, including bonus-winning performances, and an overall post-event look at the show from Jacksonville.

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