UFC Fight Night 172: Edson Barboza Vs. Dan Ige Odds And Prediction

Edson Barboza is one of the UFC’s most talented strikers, and he’s also one of the best in the promotion’s history to never hold a title. He’s dropping down to featherweight for this fight in hopes of jump-starting his career.

The 34-year-old Brazilian may be headed into a must-win fight on Saturday night at UFC Fight Night 172 against the streaking Dan Ige.

Can Barboza stop his current slide and right the ship, or will Ige send him to a new low?

Let’s take a closer look at the odds.

Odds

• Edson Barboza -125
• Dan Ige +105

Per BetOnline

Oddsmakers like Barboza to come out on top, but let’s look at each component of the fight.

Striking

There is almost no fighter in the world who would get an advantage in pure striking over Barboza. His kicks are perhaps the fastest from point A to B in the sport, and his hands have done in some of the toughest in the game, including Dan Hooker.

Ige is a good boxer, but if this fight stays on the feet, you’d have to like Barboza’s chances to win. Unless he has lost some snap on his strikes at this stage in his career, he’s the quicker and more dangerous striker.

At 145 pounds, he might be even more deadly.

Grappling and Submissions

Barboza has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but he seems to get the least value from that prestigious accomplishment than just about anyone I’ve ever seen perform at a high level in MMA.

Not only has he not had a submission win in 11 years (the only one of his career), he is consistently controlled and dominated on the ground by accomplished wrestlers and grapplers. Ige is a former collegiate wrestler at Wartburg and he has shown the ability to secure takedowns in the UFC.

He has eight with the promotion including three against Jordan Griffin in December 2018. Barboza does have 80 percent takedown defense, but if Ige can get the fight to the ground, he should be able to control things from top position. Perhaps Barboza may be able to stave off these tough positions at 145 pounds, but it seems unlikely.

Intangibles

The pressure is on Barboza.

He has lost two fights in a row, and he’s never dropped three straight in his career. Needless to say, this is a huge fight for him. Barboza is not likely in danger of being released, but he could fall so far out of the title picture that his realistic dreams of winning a belt are gone–in any weight class.

Ige is headed in the other direction. He has won five fights in a row and he just broke into the Top 15 with his win over Mirsad Bektic in February. A victory over Barboza would be the biggest win of his career.

Prediction

I like Ige in this fight. I know Barboza is likely following his good friend Jose Aldo’s lead in dropping down in weight. However, I’m not sure if he will handle it as well. Also, this isn’t necessarily a great matchup for him.

Ige has the ability to bring Barboza’s kryptonite, and I think he’ll get it done with a late TKO or unanimous-decision win based on top control.