UFC On ESPN+ 35 Preview, Pick And Prediction: Michelle Waterson Vs. Angela Hill

Angela Hill could easily be on a four-fight winning streak. She was on a 3-0 run when she faced Claudia Gadelha in the co-main event of the UFC on ESPN 8 fight card in May. The judges, in a somewhat controversial decision, handed the fight to Gadelha. Even with the loss, Hill did not lose momentum. On Saturday, Hill faces Michelle Waterson in the main event of UFC on ESPN+ 35.

Hill, who is ranked No. 13 in the official UFC women’s strawweight division rankings, has been busy — and successful — over the past 12 months. She has stoppage wins over Ariane Carnelossi and Hannah Cifers and a decision victory over Loma Lookboonmee. Before that three-fight winning streak, Hill had not won back-to-back fights with the UFC. Hill is favored over Waterson on Saturday.

Waterson was on a three-fight winning streak heading into her October 2019 matchup against former strawweight champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Jedrzejczyk won that bout via decision. Waterson dropped her next fight to another ex-champ when she lost a decision to Carla Esparza. Waterson is the No. 8 ranked fighter in the 115-pound division.

Both Hill and Waterson are former Invicta FC champions.

I am picking Hill in this fight. I think her output and ability to fend off takedowns will play a big roll in this matchup. Hill lands 5.76 significant strikes per minute, which is much higher that Waterson’s 3.31 per minute. Waterson also absorbs more significant strikes than she lands and that’s a bad formula against someone as active as Hill. Hill’s takedown defense of 72 percent will also play a role if Waterson tries to take the fight to the mat.

I see Waterson struggling to get inside on Hill. I don’t think Hill will have that same problem. Hill should be able to move in, hit Waterson and move out before Waterson can counter.

The five-round format of this bout also favors Hill, who, threw 78 strikes against Gadelha in the third round of their bout. That was the highest number of strikes she attempted in that bout. Hill landed at a 55 percent clip in that round, her best percentage of the fight.

My prediction for this contest is Hill by decision, but there is a chance she will score a knockout.