UFC On ESPN 9: Blagoy Ivanov Vs. Augusto Sakai Odds And Predictions

On Saturday, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, the UFC is back in action. With clearance from the Nevada State Athletic Commission, the MMA leader is bringing an 11-fight card to combat sports fans.

There is a heavyweight clash set for the co-main event spot, and it features No. 12 contender Blagoy Ivanov taking on No. 13-ranked Augusto Sakai.

Here are the odds for this battle of big men.

Odds

Per BetOnline

Why Sakai is the Favorite

Sakai comes in as an ever-so-slight favorite over the rugged Bulgarian. The oddsmakers are likely looking at Sakai’s four-year advantage in age. He is just 29 years old, which is young for the heavyweight division. He’s just getting started and has a bright future in the UFC.

Sakai is also on a five-fight win streak. Ever since he earned himself a contract and spot on the UFC’s roster with a second-round TKO win over Marcos Conrado Jr. on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in August 2018, he has won three straight with his most recent victory being a 59-second demolition of Marcin Tybura in September 2019.

Aside from Francis Ngannou, Sakai might be the hottest heavyweight in the promotion.

On top of the youth advantage and current momentum, Sakai is also the much bigger man. At 6’4”, Sakai stands five inches taller than the 5’11” Ivanov, and that reach advantage could be huge for him in the striking game.

Ivanov’s Chances for an Upset

Don’t sleep on Ivanov.

He is one of the toughest human beings you’ll ever encounter. Back in 2012, Ivanov was stabbed and was placed on life support. He miraculously recovered, but had lost nearly 100 pounds through the ordeal. He hasn’t just become a person capable of experiencing a regular life after nearly dying, Ivanov is back competing at the highest level of the sport.

When a fighter has been through something like that, and also has never been stopped with strikes in his career, you have to wonder if that’s a practical way to defeat him.

Ivanov may be short for the heavyweight division, but don’t underestimate his skill with the hands. He has never scored a finish in his UFC career, but he has shown the ability to find a home for his jab, though his limited height has made it difficult for him to connect with power shots. That explains his 38-percent connection rate with strikes.

To pull the mild upset, Ivanov must find a way to come forward, slip Sakai’s strikes, and to drain his opponent over the course of three rounds. If he can walk Sakai down, he may have a chance to do some serious damage late in the fight.

Prediction

I like Ivanov to pull the upset here, and to finally get the nod from the judges. He got slighted in his last fight against Derrick Lewis, which was a bout I believe he won.

Against Sakai, Ivanov will do enough to get the second round, and he’ll control the third to earn a split or unanimous-decision victory.

A preview of the main event, the rest of the card, and post-event recaps are forthcoming.