White Sox’ Acquisition Of Lance Lynn Certifies Contender Status

The uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic continues to sweep the baseball industry. While teams always keep their financial cards close to their vest, one can usually tell the contenders from the pretenders without a scorecard.

This time around, we basically have to wait until clubs make (or don’t make) transactions before their status becomes clear. While a 2020 playoff team like the Reds, for example, seems to be in cost-cutting mode, and the big-market Phillies appear to be eschewing the high end of the market, the White Sox earlier this week made it clear where their priorities lie.

Lance Lynn was acquired from the Rangers for young, controllable righty starter Dane Dunning and lefty pitching prospect Avery Weems. The casual fan might say, meh…..Lynn is a durable mid-rotation guy who lacks material upside. I’m here to tell you that the casual fan would be wrong. The White Sox just acquired one of the very best pitchers in the American League, and while he is signed only for the 2021 season, his salary is a cost-effective $8M.

The Rangers didn’t get much right the last couple of seasons, but their signing of Lynn as a free agent prior to the 2019 season was inspired. According to the batted-ball based metrics I utilize, Lynn was the third best pitcher in the American League over the last two seasons. That’s right, third, behind only Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, who was injured in 2020..

There are two basic components to pitching performance – K/BB ratio, and contact management. When you’re great at the former and OK at the latter, you’re elite, like Cole. Jacob deGrom, circa 2018-19 is the only pitcher to truly excel at both in the immediate past. That catapults you beyond elite, into the historic category. Lynn isn’t elite at either skill, but is very good at both.

In 2019, Lynn posted a 28.2% K rate, over a full standard deviation better than league average, and a 6.7% BB rate, over a half standard deviation better. He slipped backward a bit in this regard in 2020, with his 25.9% K rate in the league average range, and his 7.3% BB rate still a half standard deviation better.

When you’re better than league average K/BB-wise, as Lynn was by a comfortable margin in 2019 and a somewhat lesser one in 2020, that gives a pitcher some room for error with regard to contact management. Room that Lynn has not needed.

In 2019, Lynn posted an Adjusted Contact Score – relative to 100, the lower number the better, the amount of damage a pitcher allowed on batted balls – of 89. That didn’t put him in contention for Contact Manager of the Year, but it was well above average. Add back his Ks and BBs and his “Tru” ERA- (my proxy for ERA- or FIP-) was a strong 74, good for fifth among 2019 AL ERA qualifiers. Spread that out across his considerable innings bulk, and Lynn produced 27.7 Pitching Runs Above Average, fourth in the league.

Fast forward to 2020, and Lynn managed contact even better, posting an 82 Adjusted Contact Score, tied for third among ERA qualifiers. Add back his Ks and BBs, and his “Tru” ERA- was 72, seventh among AL ERA qualifiers. Over the many innings he pitched, that was good for 11.6 Pitching Runs Above Average, fifth in the AL.

While his Adjusted Contact Score did improve in 2020, the fundamentals supporting it did not. In 2019, he squelched batted ball authority of all types, particularly flies and liners. In 2020, he was more reliant on suppression of fly ball authority, and he actually allowed materially harder than league average grounders. He lacks a go-to batted-ball frequency tendency, like a materially high pop up or grounder rate, though he’s edging closer in the former category.

In the grand scheme of things, those are minor points.. Bottom line – the White Sox just acquired a pitcher who was one of the five best starters in the AL in both of the last two seasons. In terms of two-year Pitching Runs Above Average, only Cole (61.8) and Verlander (44.5) beat out Lynn. Right behind Lynn’s 39.3 mark comes a line of fine hurlers – new teammate Lucas Giolito and Hyun-Jin Ryu (both at 37.4), Kenta Maeda (37.3) and 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber (36.0). Pretty heady company.

But I haven’t even gotten to the best part yet. He’s doing it the way the great ones like deGrom, Cole and Max Scherzer do – with his fastball.

Each year I break down the arsenal of every ERA-qualifying starter and assign each of their pitches a letter grade based on their K/BB and pitch-specific Contact Management performance relative to the league.

In 2019, Lynn had four qualifying pitches. In order of usage rate, they were his four-seam fastball, sinker, curve ball and cutter. He received an “A” grade for his four-seamer and “B+” grades for the other three. The four-seamer’s swing-and-miss rate of 13.9% was over two full standard deviations above the pitch-specific league average, and its 102 Adjusted Contact Score was over a half-standard deviation better.

In 2020, he didn’t throw enough curves to qualify, but he received “A” grades for both his four-seamer and sinker, and a “B+” for his cutter. This time around, the cutter edged ahead of the sinker for the second spot in terms of overall usage.

His whiff rates and Adjusted Contact Scores for both his four-seamer (12.4%, 89) and sinker (9.5%, 68) were over a full standard deviation better than the pitch-specific league averages. His sinker made strong progress in both departments related to 2019 (8.0%, 85).

So what do we have here? One of the best pitchers in baseball – whom I’d say has slipped a tad from his 2019 peak – at a very affordable price. How will he meet his end? At some point, he’ll lose a bit off of his fastball, and more of those four-seamers will start going over the outfield fence. He’ll first become an innings-eating mid-to-back of the rotation guy, then worse. The chances of that happening in 2021? Very low.

Most reports I’ve read see Lynn as the Sox’ THIRD starter, behind Giolito and Dallas Keuchel. With Giolito on his way up and Lynn perhaps beginning his downward arc, I’ll concede the top spot to the younger player, but the club’s new acquisition should be penciled in as one of the game’s best No. 2 starters for 2021.