Who Could The Golden State Warriors Get With Their $17.2m Trade Exception?

The NBA opened a mini-transaction window this week, meaning all 30 teams can sign players ahead of the NBA’s expected return to action in Disney World next month. Even the Golden State Warriors can theoretically get in on the action, but this is not the summer free agency they were preparing for. 

Instead, their best-laid plans have all been postponed to a bonanza week in October, which will feature the draft on the 16th, the opening of free agency on the 18th, and the reported expiration date of their $17.2m trade exception on the 24th. That’s the stretch that will determine whether or not the Warriors will be back in the mix for an NBA championship next year or not.

The Warriors could be on the hook for $350m

Looming large is the question of whether the Warriors will be willing to spend whatever it takes to force their way back into contention. Using all tools at their disposal — a top-5 NBA draft pick, their $17.2m trade exception, and the taxpayer Mid Level Exception (MLE) — could mean a total salary and luxury tax bill of around $350m. Much of that is on the books already, but the trade exception and MLE add $120m in salary and tax payments. And those big numbers rely on the league and players’ union finding a solution to the coming financial crisis which involves the salary cap remaining at same level as the 2019-20 season. Any precipitous drop could very well shatter the Warriors’ best-laid plans.

But if the Warriors can hold their course with the expectation that the return of fans to Chase Center at some point will bring in the revenue they were banking on, they could have a pretty big market advantage. There’s no doubt other big-spending teams will be looking to cut costs. What will really determine their course of action is who they can get with their exceptions, particularly their $17.2m traded player exception.

Who could they realistically get?

Traded player exceptions have traditionally netted a pretty mediocre return on their own. Usually, it’s a player on an oversized salary on a team that’s spending too much. There are a couple of names that could fit the bill here.

Thaddeus Young, a veteran forward had a disappointing first season with the Chicago Bulls after signing a three-year $43.6m contract last summer, springs to mind. Young could be a solid player off the bench for the Warriors, giving them some depth at both forward spots and allowing them to play small ball with Draymond Green at the 5.

Young is a decent defender and has become a solid three-point shooter in the last few years. He has played in 51 playoff games for the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, and Indiana Pacers in his career. Young is on the hook for $13.5m next season, and $14.1m in 21-22, but only has $6m guaranteed in that final year. 

The Bulls have around $106m on their books for 20-21 so under a level cap scenario, they won’t need to dump money. But Young hasn’t fit, and it’d create some space. This is a pretty straight-up vanilla use of the Warriors’ trade exception. 

Another player who fits into that trade exception quite nicely is the San Antonio Spurs’ Rudy Gay. At 34 he’s nearing the end of his career, but the Warriors have long been interested in the lengthy wing, including looking hard at him at various free agency windows in recent years. Gay has transitioned a bit more into a stretchy power forward in recent years, but he’s got length, veteran smarts, and some offensive game. 

Gay’s got one year and $14.5m left on his contract, so fits in well financially and doesn’t carry a long-term financial hit. Meanwhile the San Antonio Spurs are looking at paying over $118m in salaries next season if DeMar Derozen opts in to his contract, which looks likely in an offseason where there won’t be any money around for free agents. They wouldn’t be in the tax unless there’s a big drop in the cap, but shaving $14.5m off their books would get them well under the salary cap. The Warriors might even be able to extract a minor asset for taking on the money.

Whether either Young or Gay are worth the investment is another question, especially as they might eat into the playing time currently allotted to the Warriors breakout rookie Eric Paschall. Still, veteran help at a premium position is nothing to sniff at. If the Warriors can’t do any better, either would still be a helpful player to have on the roster. 

Can a “bridge” help the Warriors do better?

The most interesting names for the Warriors actually earn a little over the $17.2m exception. The exception can’t be aggregated with players to create a larger amount, but they could acquire a player such as Gay or Young and then later flip them for a veteran earning a bit more using other salaries to match if necessary. This has become known as the “bridge” solution.

The two big names here are Aaron Gordon of the Orlando Magic who is making $18.1m next season and Myles Turner of the Indiana Pacers who is making $18m a year (including bonuses). Gordon would slot nicely into the sixth man role, defending multiple positions and using his playmaking abilities. Meanwhile, Turner could be an excellent fit as a stretch five, blocking shots, grabbing rebounds, and hitting threes.

Why would either team look to move on from two young, talented players? Well in both cases there’s a bit of a roster jam at their positions. In Orlando’s case, they are looking at a payroll of over $122m next season depending on Evan Fournier’s decision on his option. For Indiana, that number is a shade under $127m.

Again, neither team will be in the luxury tax if the cap stays level, but there’s some value in ducking under the salary cap, which would be the case for both teams if they traded the player in question.

Not enough value, however, to give them away for peanuts. The Warriors would almost certainly have to add one of their high-value draft picks to the deal. That’s either this year’s top-5 pick, or next year’s Minnesota Timberwolves pick, which is only top-3 protected. Is either player worth that? The answer may well be yes, given that they’re ready to play now and have proven that they can be at least high-end role players in the NBA. But that Minnesota pick, in particular, could have more value.

The sequencing could matter here as well. If the Warriors end up having to take another filler contract and wait until that player can be traded, they could be left with a bloated contract on their books that they find later on they can’t shift. (For reference players newly acquired in the summer usually can’t be traded until December 15th, but the league calender will clearly shift). And if Gordon’s or Turner’s current team cares about ducking under the cap, that means the Warriors 2020 draft pick, which will have been used on a player making up to $10m, is potentially out of the picture. 

All in all, the bridge scenario is a nice hypothetical, but there are sizeable obstacles to overcome, and the price could more than the Warriors are willing to pay.

A mid-market solution

An alternative for the Warriors might be to aim a little lower, and save some themselves some money in the process. Talking of the “the process”, the Philadelphia 76ers are going to be pretty deep into the luxury tax next season with $147.4m on the books thanks to big-money deals for Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons, who will be starting his max rookie extension.

Naturally a lot of people have turned their eyes to Josh Richardson, a 26-year-old, 6-foot-5, two-way wing who will be earning just under $10.9m next season. Richardson’s numbers have dipped a little since joining Philadelphia from the Miami Heat but that’s partly to do with their cramped spacing. He’d face no such problem playing alongside Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. 

By only taking on around $11m in salary the Warriors could drop down a luxury tax bracket and save around $35m in salary and tax payments compared to what they’d have to spend if they took in the full $17.2m.

For the Warriors, giving up their 2020 top-5 pick for Richardson wouldn’t represent great value. But if the 76ers are desperate to save money, and the Warriors can offer up their own 2021 pick which they would hope will be someone in the 20s and another minor asset, would that get it done? 

Another option here is the Memphis Grizzlies’ Kyle Anderson. He’s struggled with injury a bit since signing for Memphis in 2018, but he got the length, smarts, and versatility the Warriors love in their wings. He’s owed $9m next season, and after some wheeling and dealing at the trade deadline, Memphis would now be over the cap if it stays where it is this season. The Warriors might not have to give up much at all to get their hands on Slo-Mo, and would save a little more money too.

The Smart pick

The other team on the hook for big money next year is the Boston Celtics, who have $142m on their books. That number will only increase with Jayson Tatum’s expected max rookie extension due the following summer. 

The prize the Warriors have their eye on here is Marcus Smart, who is earning just under $13m next year. Think the guard version of Draymond Green, and you’re pretty much there. He’s tenacious, tough, and versatile on defense, and a solid playmaker on the offensive end. Like Green, the shooting is a concern, but Smart has improved from long-range in the last couple of years shooting 36.4% in 2018-19 and 34.8% on almost 7 attempts per game this season. What’s more he’s a proven playoff performer, which is what the Warriors really need above all else.

Smart would be a great fit alongside Curry and Thompson, and be as close to replicating Andre Iguodala as they can probably get, short of bringing the man back himself (which is actually one fairytale possibility after Iguodala signed an extension with Miami that pays him $15m next season). The difference is that Smart is 26, and Iguodala will turn 37 next season.

The challenge? The price. As with Turner and Gordon, Smart’s existing team isn’t going to give him up for nothing. The Warriors could try to offer their 2021 pick and the Wolves 2021 second-rounder, giving Boston an additional two picks next year between 20-40. That might not be enough though for a Celtics favorite even with Danny Ainge’s reputation of being a wheeler-dealer. 

On other hand, the Warriors could combine their top-5 pick this year and the exception, and make the deal straight up. Using both of their main tools to add talent this summer in their draft pick and trade exception is a steep price to pay. For Boston it doesn’t actually work that well financially either – they’d end up subtracting Smart’s contract, only to add the money owed to a top-5 pick, reducing the saving substantially.

There’s a midpoint somewhere here though. The Celtics could send back the mid first-round pick they are owed by the Memphis Grizzlies, which could net the Warriors a player like Villanova’s Saddiq Bey who they are higher than the consensus on. Alternatively, the Warriors could trade down to pick up another asset and then flip a lower pick to the Celtics.

This feels like the makings of a potentially good deal for the Warriors. Adding Marcus Smart and Saddiq Bey would give the Warriors two ready-to-play, defense-first wings who can also add some value on the offensive end. And as the old-worn cliche goes, defense wins championships. The Golden State Warriors certainly know a thing or two about that.

All in all, while the costs for using their $17.2m traded player exception may be significant, if the Warriors are willing to spend there are certainly plenty of options to add a talented piece to complement their core.