Why Brazil Will Likely Become The Global Coronavirus Hot Spot—If It’s Not Already

TOPLINE

Though right now it’s behind the United States (No. 1) and Russia (No. 2) in total confirmed cases, Brazil may soon be the world’s new Covid-19 hot spot (if it’s not already) following President Jair Bolsonaro’s contempt for social-distancing practices and warnings about the pandemic.

KEY FACTS

With its steep rate of infection, Brazil will likely overtake Russia’s total reported Covid-19 cases in a matter of days and could even surpass the death toll of the U.S. in weeks to become the world’s new global virus hotspot, the Financial Times reported.

However, Brazil’s official tally is almost certainly an undercount because of low testing rates, especially in the country’s slums, rural towns and rainforest communities, Brazil’s health ministry said.

One research team in Sao Paulo suggested this month that the actual number of cases could actually be 16 times higher, more than even the count of infections in the U.S.

Sweeping poverty and rampant inequality in Brazil make the country particularly vulnerable to the virus, experts say, especially for residents of favelas, unregulated and densely-populated settlements that already largely lack water, sanitation services and healthcare access. 

Bolsonaro, despite facing increasing pressure as the number of cases and deaths in this country rise, has continued to downplay the threat of the virus, saying 70% of Brazil’s 211 million people will eventually be infected with the virus— and “there’s no running away from that,” he has repeatedly insisted.

Bolsonaro has consistently flogged social distancing measures put into place by Brazil’s governors, calling the Covid-19 crackdowns “poison” and claiming a weakened economy could kill more Brazilians than the virus itself.

TANGENT

Andy Slavitt, a former head of Medicaid and Medicare under the Obama administration, pointed out the similarities between Brazil and the U.S.’s strategies during the pandemic and how Brazil should be an example of what not to do for the U.S. going forward. “Brazil is [a lesson] in what the U.S. would look like if Trump had been allowed to continue to ignore the outbreak as he was through mid-March,” Slavitt tweeted. “Or what a second wave could look like if [Trump] convinces half the country to drop their guard.”

KEY BACKGROUND

According to Johns Hopkins University, there were upwards of 310,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Brazil on Friday afternoon and more than 20,000 deaths attributed to the virus. Brazil was the first Latin American country to report a Covid-19 case and still has the most in the region by far. Bolsonaro, who has previously called the virus that has killed 5 million worldwide a “little cold,” has had a drop in popularity since the pandemic began. In March, he denied he himself had been infected after members of his inner circle tested positive. “Brazil is having some trouble, no question about it,” U.S. President Donald Trump told media outlets Tuesday, saying that he was mulling the possibility of forbidding flights from South America’s biggest country. 

FURTHER READING

Brazil emerges as a top global coronavirus hotspot (Financial Times)

Brazil suffers record daily coronavirus death toll, soon to be world No. 2 (Reuters)

Brazil set to become world’s number two coronavirus hotspot as pressure mounts on Bolsonaro (CNBC)

Coronavirus tracked: has the epidemic peaked near you? (Financial Times)

Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus


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