Why President-Elect Biden Will Likely Keep The Space Force

Many people were critical of President Trump’s initiative to stand-up the Space Force. Some thought the Space Force was unnecessary, with space operations being currently handled by each military branch and NASA. Others considered the very notion of the Space Force as being absolutely ridiculous. Indeed, the establishment of the Space Force inspired numerous late-night jokes and even a Netflix comedy series. Regardless, the Space Force was established and currently has 2,500 guardians (the name chosen for Space Force personnel).

On January 20, the Space Force will stand at a critical juncture. Will President-elect Biden kill the Space Force? Indeed, it is not uncommon for an incoming president to undo the efforts made by a previous administration. However, given the current global socio-political climate, the much-ridiculed Space Force will likely stay. The reason is simple – it is necessary.

Although the Space Force conjures up images of Star Trek’s Starfleet, the goal of the Space Force is vastly different. The official goals of the Space Force are to “protect the interests of the United States in space, deter aggression in, from, and to space, and conduct space operations.”   These goals are important since space is expected to play a critical role in future conflicts. While space soldiers will not be shooting enemies with phaser guns on the surface of the moon, space systems provide an important asset that enable ground, air, and sea military operations.  

For many years, the United States dominated in space. However, several countries have caught up, and in some cases surpassed, the United States in certain areas of space technology. These countries, including China and Russia, are mastering space technologies that could readily translate into game-changing military capabilities in future wars.  Russia has even gone a step further, with the Russians having established their own Space Force as a component of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Meanwhile, the United States military has become overly reliant on space-based systems. Indeed, satellite imagery coupled with advanced data processing methods have provided immense intelligence to soldiers on the battlefield.  Also, mobility by land, air, and sea are all very much based on GPS, which in turn relies on a network of satellites. Moreover, the Iridium network has provided a reliable, satellite-based communication in even the most austere locations. 

Additionally, space weaponry will be as critical to future wars as air-based weaponry has been for every conflict since World War II. Space weaponry can be broken into three categories. The first is earth-to-space, where weapons from earth target assets in space, especially satellites. While these weapons may be kinetic (i.e., missiles), they will most likely be cyber-weaponry that sends signals to satellites to cause them to malfunction. The second class is space-to-space, where “killer satellites” attack other satellites. The tracking and guidance algorithms used by many recent space programs can be militarized to allow for these “killer satellites.” The final type of weaponry is perhaps the most dangerous: space-to-earth. These weapons can be kinetic or cyber. Although kinetic weapons can be launched from space, they are inherently impractical, expensive, and difficult to maintain. Meanwhile, cyber weapons can be readily deployed through space platforms to deny, degrade, disrupt, deceive, or destroy enemy communication capabilities.

The nature of space weaponry and the reliance of space for communications provides insight into the actual domain that the Space Force will be operating in. While the name naturally implies that the Space Force will operate in outer space, the reality is that much of their mission set is tied to cyberspace. The Space Force will play a large role in strategic cyberspace operations, likely taking over as the lead branch in this domain. While the other branches will keep their operational cyberspace capabilities, many of the strategic cyberspace capabilities should eventually be owned by the Space Force. In doing so, the Department of Defense would reduce redundancy and ensure unity of effort in this critical domain.

There are many decisions that President-elect Biden can make about the Space Force. He may potentially move the headquarters out of Alabama to Colorado. He could request that they reconsider their decision to call themselves “guardians.” He might also make it a component of the Air Force, similar to how the Marines are a component of the Navy. Alternatively, he may potentially expand it by having it take on the more aspects of the cyber domain. However, given the importance of space, it is unlikely that he will shut down the Space Force.

What might have been the punchline of many jokes is actually a much needed and relevant organization.  While space provides everyone luxuries such as GPS and satellite radio, the military has become overly reliant on space-based systems. Meanwhile, space weaponry will potentially be a key player in future wars. The last century of warfare was decided primarily by air supremacy; the next century of warfare will likely be decided by space supremacy.